Japan and China--中日关系
关键词： Japan ,China,中日关系Peace breaking out
露出和平的曙光
Apr 4th 2007 | TOKYO AND BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
A concerted effort to improve relations in the shadow of historical grudges
历史问题阴影下中日双方努力改善双边关系
David Simonds
THE way the Chinese like to put it, the trip to Beijing last October by Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, “broke the ice”. The two countries' relationship had been plunged into the chiller by the provocative visits of Mr Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, to Yasukuni, the Tokyo war shrine that glorifies Japan's militarist past. Now, the trip that Wen Jiabao will make to Tokyo and Kyoto on April 11th-13th, the first visit to Japan in more than six years by a Chinese prime minister, will be the “ice-melter”. Optimism abounds on both sides. But it is wishful thinking to expect the problems between Asia's two biggest powers to be reduced to a few puddles of warm water.
对于去年十月份日本首相安倍晋三访华，中国政府将其形容为“破冰之旅”。自从安倍的前任小泉纯一郎首相参拜供奉日本军国主义分子的靖国神社后，中日关系跌入谷底。现在，温家宝总理定于4月11日到13日访日，这是中国总理6年多来第一次访日，有人称之为“融冰之旅”。双方都充满着乐观的情绪。但是若希望这两个亚洲大国冀此次会晤就解决之间存在的问题，那就是痴心妄想了。
For now, China is determined to do everything to make Mr Wen's trip a success. Take the issue of the so-called “comfort women”. Mr Abe has in the past month caught himself up in an uncalled-for furore by refusing to admit that the Japanese imperial army coerced Korean, Chinese and other women to work in brothels in the second world war. This managed to offend even Japan's staunch ally, the United States. Yet the Chinese government, usually quick to take historical offence, has studiously ignored the fuss. Indeed, over more recent abductions that Mr Abe cares very deeply about—of ordinary Japanese kidnapped by North Korea during the 1970s and 1980s—Mr Wen himself expresses sympathy for Japanese concerns.
目前，中国方面正尽其所能的使温总访日取得成功。比如所谓的“慰安妇”问题。上月，由于拒绝承认日本军队在第二次世界大战期间强迫韩国、中国、朝鲜等国的妇女充当慰安妇，安倍首相陷入了四面楚歌的境地。此事甚至冒犯了日本的坚定盟友美国。而通常对此事反应迅速的中国政府却对此敷衍了事。的确，安倍最近最关心的是—20时七八十年代日本人被朝鲜人绑架事件，而温总个人对日本的关切表示了慰问。
As for the Yasukuni shrine, to which Mr Abe has traditionally been a more committed visitor than has Mr Koizumi, the Chinese believe that they have an understanding from him that he will not go while he is prime minister. Afterwards, says one Chinese policymaker, he can even go and live at Yasukuni, for all the Chinese will care.
安倍首相对靖国神社的态度比他的前任小泉首相更坚定，中方相信他们从安倍那里得到的消息表明他在任期间不会参拜靖国神社。中方的一位决策者说，毕竟所有中国人都会在意安倍首相的举动。
If this minimum requirement—no prime ministerial visit, or at least no public one, to Yasukuni—is met, then the Chinese government seems determined to build a new “strategic partnership”. Japan seems inclined to reciprocate. In a surprisingly short time, a wide range of topics has come up: economic and environmental co-operation; mechanisms to ease territorial disputes in the East China Sea, complicated by possibly large deposits of gas and oil; even confidence-building measures between the two countries' armed forces.
如果满足这个最低要求—首相不去参拜，或者至少不公开的参拜，那么中国政府似乎要决心与日本建立新型的“战略伙伴关系”。日方似乎倾向于互惠互利。在近期，一些话题迅速升温，经济和环保合作；由于东海存在大量天然气和石油，双方展开东中国海领土争端的谈判；甚至两国军方也开始建立互信。
Mr Wen's visit will formalise a new cabinet-level dialogue on economic co-operation. In addition, Japanese firms will be offered the chance to bid for nuclear-power projects, as well as for parts of proposed high-speed railway lines between Beijing and Shanghai, Beijing and Wuhan, and Dalian and Harbin in Manchuria—whose railways imperial Japan once controlled. Japanese investment and know-how will be sought for environmental projects, including on energy efficiency.
温总的这次访问将会使经济合作的内阁级别会谈正常化。另外，日本公司不光获得投标中国核电项目的机会，而且获得京沪线、京汉线和大哈线高速铁路项目的投标权，而日本在二战期间曾一度控制着大连到哈尔滨的铁路。日本的资本和先进技术旨在投资环保项目，包括提高能源的利用效率。
The dispute in the East China Sea is potentially explosive. The hydrocarbon烃, 碳氢化合物deposits fall on both sides of the median line between the two countries that Japan says should be the boundary between their respective exclusive economic zones. China does not recognise the boundary, and is already extracting gas from a field which straddles it. Progress over the dispute appears slow—a seventh round of bilateral talks ended last week in Tokyo. Yet participants say that understandings have been reached in important areas. In particular, China has accepted that the solution lies not in focusing on prickly issues of territoriality, but on joint development of the disputed fields. The haggling争论不休is now over precisely which areas should be developed. Meanwhile, Chinese officials say their vessels carefully avoid crossing the disputed boundary. There is talk of establishing a hotline between the Japan Coast Guard and the China National Oceanic Bureau, to co-ordinate search-and-rescue missions in an increasingly crowded sea.
中日东海争端是一个潜在的火药桶。日方声称东海中间线两边的油气资源应属于各自的专属经济区。而中方不承认这条中间线，并且已经开始在跨线地区开发油气资源。从双方于上周在东京结束了地区轮的双边会谈来看，争端解决有些缓慢。与会人员表示在一些重要的领域已达成共识。尤其是中方接受了搁置主权争议，而在有争议地区共同开发的原则。现在双方争论的焦点是究竟要开发那些区域。同时，中方官员表示，中国的航海船一直都在小心翼翼的避免穿过有争议的地区。双方还谈到了在日本海上保安厅和中国国家海洋局之间建立热线，以在拥挤的海洋上进行搜救合作。
Dates, damn dates
节日，麻烦的节日
Military relations also appear to be warming. A similar hotline is expected between the two countries' navies, partly in order to prevent incidents such as accidental collisions碰撞, 冲突at sea from escalating逐步升高, 逐步增强. Defence ministers plan reciprocal visits. The official Chinese press also reflects the new warmth. Nanfeng Chuang, a weekly magazine, reported on April 1st that Japan “naturally” had concerns about China's military expansion, given its territorial disputes with its neighbour—a departure in the press from the usual claims of a resurgent复活的Japanese militarism. Now there is talk of an official visit to Japan later this year by the Chinese navy, with the prospect (hard, until recently, to imagine) of the five-starred red flag flying in Tokyo Bay.
双发的军事关系也在升温。双方也期望建立起两国海军之间的热线，以避免中日海上摩擦不断升高。日本防卫厅长官打算回访中国，而中国军方的发言人对此表示欢迎。4月1日的南风窗杂志报道，鉴于和中国有领土争端，日本对于中国的军事扩张有着“天然”的忧虑，而媒体经常报道日本企图恢复军国主义。今年晚些时候，中国海军将对日本进行一次正式的访问，尽管目前还很难实现，但是希望中国的五星红旗能够飘扬在东京湾。
In a rare honour, Mr Wen has been invited to address Japan's parliament, where he will suggest that China is rising, but along a peaceful incline; he will invite Japan to share it. As well as meeting politicians and Emperor Akihito, Mr Wen has asked to chat to students and farmers. He is also to meet the head of Soka Gakkai, Japan's largest Buddhist organisation, with 8m households. The charm offensive, says a Chinese diplomat, is meant to show people that China has a “new idea” about Japan. This is unlikely ever to extend to support for Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations' Security Council. But with so many other obstacles blocking UNSC reform, that can be overlooked.
温总访日期间受到了难得的礼遇，那就是在日本国会发表演讲，温总会向日方解释，中国的崛起是和平的，希望日方来一起分享。此间，温总将会见日本的政治家和天皇，还有与学生和农民座谈。温总在日期间会会见拥有八百万信众日本的最大的佛教团体Soka Gakkai的长老。中方的外交官表示，这个“温情攻势”意在向日本民众显示中方对日本的“新思维”，而这样的温情可能不会延伸到中国对日本竞逐联合国安理会常任理事国的支持。但目前联合国改革障碍重重，谁会注意这个呢！
China's push for better relations involves some political risk at home—and not least because Mr Abe, having opened to China, has to survive upper-house elections in the summer. The months ahead are studded with sensitive anniversaries related to Japan's wartime depredations in China. Any of these could rekindle the anti-Japanese sentiment that erupted into unruly demonstrations in 2005. China's state media emphasise that this year should be celebrated as the 35th anniversary of “normalised” relations with Japan. Yet ordinary people are more likely to note that July 7th will be the 70th anniversary of the start of Japan's all-out invasion, and December 13th that of Japan's worst atrocity in China, the Nanjing massacre. Last month an adviser to China's parliament proposed that September 18th be named as a “day of national calamity” because of Japan's occupation of Manchuria beginning on that day in 1931. The icebergs are melting, but historical issues still make up their underwater mass.
中国推动发展中日关系时也冒着国内的政治风险，至少安倍首相要熬过今年夏天的上院选举，而在中国，未来几个月有很多与日本侵华有关的纪念日。任何一起事件都会激起反日情绪，甚至会酿成像2005年那样的反日大。中国官方的媒体强调今年应该主要庆祝中日邦交正常化35周年。而老百姓则更希望记住7月7日日本侵华70周年，和12月13日的南京大屠杀。上月，一名人大代表建议将“9•18”定为“国难日”，因为日本在1931年9月18日占领了东北。坚冰正在融化，可历史问题仍旧是潜在的麻烦。
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