Masses in Taiwan protest against the government
关键词： 台湾，倒扁Taiwan台湾
An internal affair中国内政
Sep 21st 2006 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
Masses in Taiwan protest against the government
台湾民众齐“倒扁”
“RED terror” on the streets of Taipei is how Taiwan's ruling party has, with predictable hyperbole, described days of protests aimed at toppling the island's president, Chen Shui-bian, because of alleged corruption. In Taiwan's politics insinuations of meddling by the mainland's Communist government are pervasive. But there is no sign of it this time. China, despite its contempt for Mr Chen and for democracy, would rather see the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) regain power through the ballot box.
这些天来因反对台湾领导人陈水扁贪腐而在台北街头进行的"倒扁"运动，被执政党刻意夸张的描述成了一场“”。台当局诸如“中共插手”之类的暗示正在蔓延。不过目前却没有迹象表明这点。尽管大陆不怎么喜欢陈，对台湾所谓的民主制度也不以为然，但看起来还是更倾向于看到在野党国民党（KMT）通过选举重新执政。
Few expect Mr Chen to capitulate readily to the demands of the demonstrators, who are led by Shih Ming-teh, a former chairman of Mr Chen's own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and a long-time critic of the president. Since September 9th Mr Shih and fellow protesters, clad in red as a sign of anger, have camped in the city centre. On September 15th hundreds of thousands joined them in heavy rain for what the organisers described as a “siege” march from the presidential palace to the main railway station. They called for another protest near the presidential office on October 10th, the island's national day, close to where official celebrations are due to take place. But they have called off plans for protests in other cities, citing a risk of disorder (supporters and opponents of the president have already scuffled in the southern cities of Kaohsiung, Tainan and Pingtung). Plans for an island-wide strike have also been shelved.
虽然没人认为陈水扁会积极回应示威者的要求，但陈的长期批评者、民进党前主席施明德，仍领导着这些示威者要求陈水扁马上下台。自9月9日起施明德和他的追随者就身着表示愤怒的红衫，驻扎在市中心静坐以示抗议。到了9月15日，又有数十万民众冒着暴雨参与了，他们占据了从总统府到台北火车站的广大区域，组织者称之为“围城”。他们还号召在“双十节”（台“国庆节”）在“总统府”附近开展另一场抗议行动，因为此处离官方庆典的地点很近。出于对骚乱风险（在南部的高雄、台南、屏东等城市，已经出现了“挺扁”和“倒扁”者之间的对抗）的考虑，他们取消了在其他城市举行抗议活动的计划。全岛罢工计划也被暂时搁置。
Mr Chen's popularity has plummeted in recent months amid allegations of corruption involving senior aides, a son-in-law and the president's wife. In August the president himself was questioned by prosecutors over the use of false invoices to claim money from a fund available to him for pursuing clandestine diplomacy.
近几月来，陈水扁本来已因其高级幕僚、女婿及夫人不断被卷入贪腐指控，使得其声望不断下跌。而八月陈本人也因使用假发票核销“国务机要费”而遭到检察官的质询。
The KMT relishes the president's discomfort but is uncertain how to react. Even though KMT supporters have flocked to join Mr Shih, the party's chairman, Ma Ying-jeou (who is also mayor of Taipei), has been more diffident. Forcing Mr Chen to step down now would not necessarily help Mr Ma. The vice-president, Annette Lu, would then take over, and presidential polls would take place as originally scheduled in March 2008. The KMT is considering whether to mount a vote of no confidence against the DPP prime minister, Su Tseng-chang. With the KMT and its allies controlling a slim majority in parliament, this could succeed. But the KMT worries about possible in-fighting within its own ranks should this lead to a snap parliamentary election.
虽然国民党对陈的难堪津津乐道，不过目前还不清楚将会作出什么样的反应。虽然国民党的支持者纷纷加入施明德的“倒扁”大军，不过国民党主席马英九（兼任台北市长）却显得有些畏畏缩缩。现在即使陈水扁下台了对马英九也没有什么好处。“副总统”吕秀莲将会继任，而且总统选举仍会按原期于2008年3月进行。国民党目前考虑的是要不要发起“倒阁”，而把民进党籍“行政院长”苏贞昌拉下马。由于泛蓝在“立法院”占据微弱优势，因此他们很可能会取得成功。不过国民党担心内部的暗战会导致解散“立法院”，提前重新选举“立委”。
China would like the KMT to take back the presidency. But it fears that an embattled Mr Chen might try to shore up his popularity by pushing the island further towards formal independence from China. Mr Chen said last week that he was considering calling a referendum on whether to try to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan, instead of Republic of China, as the island still calls itself.
大陆虽然希望国民党能重新执政，但又担心陈水扁为了巩固统治而作困兽之斗——把台湾引向急独。陈水扁上周表示，他在考虑是否就以“台湾”而不是“中华民国（至今该岛仍采用的自称）”的名义加入联合国而进行“全民公投”。
This would infuriate China. Its and Mr Ma's hopes lie in the various elections that are forthcoming: mayoral ones in Taipei and Kaohsiung at the end of this year, legislative polls in late 2007 and the presidential elections in 2008, when Mr Chen is constitutionally obliged to step down. The charismatic Mr Ma is a front-runner to succeed him. With Mr Chen and his party so politically damaged, it appears he has to do no more than wait.
An internal affair中国内政
Sep 21st 2006 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
Masses in Taiwan protest against the government
台湾民众齐“倒扁”
“RED terror” on the streets of Taipei is how Taiwan's ruling party has, with predictable hyperbole, described days of protests aimed at toppling the island's president, Chen Shui-bian, because of alleged corruption. In Taiwan's politics insinuations of meddling by the mainland's Communist government are pervasive. But there is no sign of it this time. China, despite its contempt for Mr Chen and for democracy, would rather see the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) regain power through the ballot box.
这些天来因反对台湾领导人陈水扁贪腐而在台北街头进行的"倒扁"运动，被执政党刻意夸张的描述成了一场“”。台当局诸如“中共插手”之类的暗示正在蔓延。不过目前却没有迹象表明这点。尽管大陆不怎么喜欢陈，对台湾所谓的民主制度也不以为然，但看起来还是更倾向于看到在野党国民党（KMT）通过选举重新执政。
Few expect Mr Chen to capitulate readily to the demands of the demonstrators, who are led by Shih Ming-teh, a former chairman of Mr Chen's own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and a long-time critic of the president. Since September 9th Mr Shih and fellow protesters, clad in red as a sign of anger, have camped in the city centre. On September 15th hundreds of thousands joined them in heavy rain for what the organisers described as a “siege” march from the presidential palace to the main railway station. They called for another protest near the presidential office on October 10th, the island's national day, close to where official celebrations are due to take place. But they have called off plans for protests in other cities, citing a risk of disorder (supporters and opponents of the president have already scuffled in the southern cities of Kaohsiung, Tainan and Pingtung). Plans for an island-wide strike have also been shelved.
虽然没人认为陈水扁会积极回应示威者的要求，但陈的长期批评者、民进党前主席施明德，仍领导着这些示威者要求陈水扁马上下台。自9月9日起施明德和他的追随者就身着表示愤怒的红衫，驻扎在市中心静坐以示抗议。到了9月15日，又有数十万民众冒着暴雨参与了，他们占据了从总统府到台北火车站的广大区域，组织者称之为“围城”。他们还号召在“双十节”（台“国庆节”）在“总统府”附近开展另一场抗议行动，因为此处离官方庆典的地点很近。出于对骚乱风险（在南部的高雄、台南、屏东等城市，已经出现了“挺扁”和“倒扁”者之间的对抗）的考虑，他们取消了在其他城市举行抗议活动的计划。全岛罢工计划也被暂时搁置。
Mr Chen's popularity has plummeted in recent months amid allegations of corruption involving senior aides, a son-in-law and the president's wife. In August the president himself was questioned by prosecutors over the use of false invoices to claim money from a fund available to him for pursuing clandestine diplomacy.
近几月来，陈水扁本来已因其高级幕僚、女婿及夫人不断被卷入贪腐指控，使得其声望不断下跌。而八月陈本人也因使用假发票核销“国务机要费”而遭到检察官的质询。
The KMT relishes the president's discomfort but is uncertain how to react. Even though KMT supporters have flocked to join Mr Shih, the party's chairman, Ma Ying-jeou (who is also mayor of Taipei), has been more diffident. Forcing Mr Chen to step down now would not necessarily help Mr Ma. The vice-president, Annette Lu, would then take over, and presidential polls would take place as originally scheduled in March 2008. The KMT is considering whether to mount a vote of no confidence against the DPP prime minister, Su Tseng-chang. With the KMT and its allies controlling a slim majority in parliament, this could succeed. But the KMT worries about possible in-fighting within its own ranks should this lead to a snap parliamentary election.
虽然国民党对陈的难堪津津乐道，不过目前还不清楚将会作出什么样的反应。虽然国民党的支持者纷纷加入施明德的“倒扁”大军，不过国民党主席马英九（兼任台北市长）却显得有些畏畏缩缩。现在即使陈水扁下台了对马英九也没有什么好处。“副总统”吕秀莲将会继任，而且总统选举仍会按原期于2008年3月进行。国民党目前考虑的是要不要发起“倒阁”，而把民进党籍“行政院长”苏贞昌拉下马。由于泛蓝在“立法院”占据微弱优势，因此他们很可能会取得成功。不过国民党担心内部的暗战会导致解散“立法院”，提前重新选举“立委”。
China would like the KMT to take back the presidency. But it fears that an embattled Mr Chen might try to shore up his popularity by pushing the island further towards formal independence from China. Mr Chen said last week that he was considering calling a referendum on whether to try to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan, instead of Republic of China, as the island still calls itself.
大陆虽然希望国民党能重新执政，但又担心陈水扁为了巩固统治而作困兽之斗——把台湾引向急独。陈水扁上周表示，他在考虑是否就以“台湾”而不是“中华民国（至今该岛仍采用的自称）”的名义加入联合国而进行“全民公投”。
This would infuriate China. Its and Mr Ma's hopes lie in the various elections that are forthcoming: mayoral ones in Taipei and Kaohsiung at the end of this year, legislative polls in late 2007 and the presidential elections in 2008, when Mr Chen is constitutionally obliged to step down. The charismatic Mr Ma is a front-runner to succeed him. With Mr Chen and his party so politically damaged, it appears he has to do no more than wait.
这将会激怒大陆，大陆和马英九都寄希望于即将到来的各种选举：今年底的台北市和高雄市的市长选举，2007年底的“立法院”选举和2008年的“总统”选举，到那时陈水扁必须遵循宪法的规定而离职。在继任者方面，魅力超凡的马一直呼声最高，就目前陈水扁和民进党在所遭到如此严重的政治打击来看，马英九的获胜不过是个时间问题。
Copyright © 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
翻译 by shiyi18
Trackback
你可以使用这个链接引用该篇文章 http://publishblog.blogchina.com/blog/tb.b?diaryID=6274322