千呼万唤始出来
关键词： Emerging，at lastSurveys
SURVEY: WORLD ECONOMY
Emerging at last
千呼万唤始出来
Sep 14th 2006
From The Economist print edition
Developing economies are having a good run
新兴经济体正在稳步快速发展
IN 1994 this newspaper launched a new emerging-market indicators page to mark “a fundamental and remarkably rapid change in the balance of the world economy”. Emerging economies were then growing twice as fast as the rich ones, and their stockmarkets were surging. But the timing of the launch was awful. It came at the start of a dismal decade for emerging economies, with crises in Mexico at the end of 1994, Asia in 1997, Russia in 1998, Brazil in 1999, Turkey in 2000, Argentina in 2001 and Venezuela in 2002. By 2002 the MSCI emerging-market share-price index had lost almost 60% of its 1994 value. Last year it regained that peak. But is the current economic boom any more sustainable?
1994年，本报发布了一个新兴市场指标页以铭记世界经济格局中那些根本的、显著的快速变化。那时，新兴经济体以两倍于富裕国家的速度飞速发展，其股票市场同样势头迅猛。但是，那是一个糟糕的发布时间。从那时开始，新兴经济体迈入了一个布满阴霾的十年，灾难纷至沓来，墨西哥在1994年底、亚洲在1997年、俄罗斯在1998年、巴西在1999年、土耳其在2000年、阿根廷在2001年、委内瑞拉在2002年分别遭受重创。截止到2002年，摩根士丹利新兴市场股价指数与94年相比已经下降了约60%。不过，去年该指数重新达到了顶峰。但是，目前的经济繁荣景象会持续下去吗？
The 25% drop in emerging stockmarkets during May and June of this year was a warning. Having tripled over the previous three years, share prices, fuelled by excessive global liquidity, had got ahead of themselves and a correction was overdue. However, the economies themselves look in better shape than for decades. Over the past five years GDP per head in the emerging economies has grown by an annual average of 5.6%, compared with only 1.9% in the developed world. In the preceding 20 years GDP per head in poor countries had been growing by an average of 2.5%, little more than in rich economies.
今年五月份至六月份，新兴股票市场下跌了25%，这为人们敲响了警钟。过去三年内，由于过量全球性流动资金的刺激，股价已经增至原来的三倍，这远远超出其自身价值，而且迟迟未见回落。然而，新兴经济体看起来要比其自身过去数十年来的状况好的多。过去五年内，他们的人均GDP以年均5.6%的速度增长，而发达国家不过是1.9%。最近的20年来，贫困国家的人均GDP以年均2.5%的速度均长，也略高于富裕国家。
Deep and crisp and even
深刻，均衡，但依然脆弱
In the past, as some economies sprinted, others stumbled. Today rapid growth is more evenly spread. This year, for the third year running, all of the 32 biggest emerging economies tracked weekly by The Economist are showing positive growth. In every previous year since the 1970s at least one emerging economy, often several, suffered a recession, if not a severe financial crisis.
过去，在新兴经济体内总会有一些国家飞速发展，而另有一些国家蹒跚而行。自20世纪70年代以来，即使没有出现严重的金融危机，也至少总会有一个（常常是几个）新兴经济国家遭遇经济衰退。如今，快速的增长则显得更加广泛。今年，所有32个最大的新兴经济国家都出现了正增长，《经济学人》每周都会对他们进行追踪，今年已经是第三年。
Even Africa's prospects look brighter than they have done for many years. In the last quarter of the 20th century real income per person in the world's poorest region stagnated, but so far this decade Africa has put on a spurt, with GDP growth above 5% for three consecutive years, thanks largely to higher commodity prices.
即使在非洲这个世界上最贫穷的地方，其前景也比过去许多年以来都要明朗。在20世纪的最后25年，他们的人均实际收入一直裹足不前，但是在新世纪的第一个十年里，非洲上演了一出飞速发展的好戏。到目前为止，其GDP已经连续三年以高于5%的速度增长，而这主要归功于更高的商品价格。
Developing countries have also benefited from America's consumer-spending binge, which has sucked in imports; and from historically low global interest rates, which have lowered debt-service costs. But favourable external factors played only a minor part in the revival of emerging economies. Much more importantly, their underlying economic health has improved. Structural reforms and sounder macroeconomic policies have made them more able to sustain robust growth and to withstand adverse shocks. Inflation has been tamed and many countries have trimmed their budget deficits; indeed, on average they are running much smaller deficits than the rich world.
发展中国家的经济繁荣亦得益于美国的消费狂热，这促使美国大量进口商品；他们也从历史上较低的全球利率中获益，这使得他们大降低了债务利息支出。但是，有利的外部因素在新兴经济国家的复苏中仅仅扮演了一个很小的角色。更重要的是，他们内在的经济健康状况得到了改善。经济结构改革和更加合理的宏观经济政策令他们能够得心应手的维持经济的健康增长，处理负面冲击也显得游刃有余。他们很好的驾奴了通货膨胀，许多国家成功削弱了财政赤字；实际上，他们的平均财政赤字要比富裕国家小得多。
Emerging economies are also much less dependent on foreign capital than they were a decade ago, leaving them less vulnerable to the whims of investors. As a group, they are in their eighth year of current-account surplus, having been in deficit for most of the previous 20. Their average ratio of foreign debt to exports has tumbled from 174% in 1998 to an estimated 75% this year. Foreign-exchange reserves have swollen to nine months' import cover, compared with only five months' just before the Asian crisis in 1997. And most emerging economies no longer fix their currencies at the grossly overvalued rates that contributed to past financial crises. If anything, the currencies of China and some other Asian countries are now undervalued.
与十年前相比，他们大大减弱了对外资的倚重，这令他们能够自如地应对投资者的率性之举。做为一个整体，他们迎来了自己的第八个贸易顺差之年，而在此前的二十年间，他们绝大部分时间都处于逆差地位。外债与出口的比率已从1998年174%降至今年的75%（估计值）。外汇储备支持进口时间从97年亚洲金融危机前的五个月增至现在的9个月。此外，他们大部分都放弃了偏高的固定江率制度，因为正是这种制度在某种程度上导致了过去的金融危机。如果还有什么不同的话，那就是中国以及其他几个亚洲国家的汇率现在倒是有些偏低了。
Over the past few years all regions have enjoyed brisker growth, but some are in better shape than others. Emerging European economies have the least healthy external balances. Hungary and Turkey have current-account deficits of 7-8% of GDP. When investors dumped emerging-market assets in May and June of this year, these countries were hit hardest.
在过去的几年里，所有的新兴经济地区都在飞速发展，但水平参差不齐。欧洲新兴经济国家拥有的外在有利条件不甚理想。匈牙利和土耳其的贸易逆差已占到其GDP的7%-8%。今年五六月份，当投资者在这些地区抛售其资产时，此类国家都损失惨重。
Emerging economies still face many potential risks, from banking crises to unrest in response to widening income inequality. Some could be badly hurt by a slump in demand in America or China and a consequent fall in commodity prices. Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley argues that the weakness of emerging economies is no longer their dependence on external finance, as in the 1990s, but their dependence on external demand.
此外，新兴经济国家还面临着许多潜在风险，银行业危机和日益扩大的收入差距导致的动荡不安都会对其产生威胁。如果美国或中国的需求锐减，商品价格就会随之下跌，一些国家就很有可能受到严重打击。摩根士丹利的史蒂芬•罗奇认为，新兴经济国家的弱点已经改变，在1990年代，它来自于对外部资金的依赖，现在对外部需求的倚重却成为其软肋。
Just like America during its take-off in the late 19th century, emerging economies tend to be subject to economic ups and downs. But what matters most for their long-term prospects are their economic policies. They need to take advantage of the present period of strong growth to push ahead with reforms. Governments that still have large budget deficits, notably in central and eastern Europe, must wield the axe. Others, such as China, need to clean up their banking systems. Almost everywhere, governments can do more to free up markets and reduce their own meddling. In Asia, that includes allowing greater exchange-rate flexibility.
正如19世纪晚期美国经济开始腾飞之时那样，新兴经济国家的经济状况不甚稳定，容易出现动荡起伏。但是，真正关系着他们长远发展前景的是其经济政策。他们应该利用目前这段经济强劲增长的时期来推进其改革进程。财政赤字依然较大的政府，特别是中东欧国家，必须挥起利斧，采取果断措施。其它国家，比如中国，应该清理其银行系统。几乎每一个新兴经济国家，都需要进一步放开市场减少干预。在亚洲，这将包括一个更富弹性的外汇比率机制。
Rich economies can grow only by inventing new technology or management methods. Poor countries, in theory, should find it easy to grow faster because they can boost their productivity by adopting innovations from richer ones. In the past, such opportunities were all too often squandered through bad policies. But if structural reforms continue, there is huge future potential for growth.
富裕国家只能通过发明新技术或新的管理发法来向前发展。但是理论上说，贫穷国家的发展速度却应该更快些，因为他们可以采用富裕国家的创新发明来提高生产力。过去，这样的机会大都因糟糕的政策而浪费掉了。然而，如果经济结构改革能够持续下去，他们有着巨大的发展潜力。
Alwyn Young, an American economist, caused a stir in the mid-1990s (just before the East Asian crisis) by suggesting that East Asia's growth miracle was a myth. He calculated that most of the region's faster growth was due to increased inputs of labour and capital rather than to total factor productivity growth (the efficiency with which inputs of both capital and labour are used). Paul Krugman, another American economist, summed up Mr Young's discovery thus: “The miracle turns out to have been based on perspiration rather than inspiration.”
1990年代中期（正是东亚金融危机前夕），美国经济学家埃尔维恩•杨声称，东亚的经济增长奇迹只是一个神话，这在当时引起了轩然大波。他认为，该地区经济的快速增长主要是因为劳动力和资金投入的提高，而不是全要素生产率（TFP，指劳动力和资本投入的利用效率）增长的结果。另一位美国经济学家保罗•克鲁格曼这样总结杨的结论：事实证明，东亚经济奇迹源自流汗，而非灵感。
In fact, Mr Young underestimated the growth in total factor productivity in the Asian tiger countries, which had actually been considerably faster than in rich economies. Moreover, developing economies do not need inspiration to catch up. In the early stages of development, it is enough to maintain high rates of investment and copy techniques that have proved successful elsewhere. Asia worked its “miracle” by creating the right conditions for high investment: a high saving rate, open markets and a good education system.
实际上，杨低估了亚洲虎们的TFP增长速度，它比发达国家都要快。而且，新兴经济体并不需要灵感来赶超发达国家。在早期发展阶段，他们只需要维持较高的投资利率，移值在别处已获得成功的技术就可以了。亚洲经济奇迹正是通过营造一个良好的引资环境来实现的：高储蓄率，开放的市场以及一个优秀的教育系统功不可没。
Today, China's critics similarly argue that its growth has been driven largely by wasteful investment and cannot be sustained. In fact, total factor productivity growth in China has been even faster than in the rest of Asia. Over the past quarter-century it has averaged 3% a year, accounting for roughly the same amount of GDP growth as capital investment. (Over the same period, America's total factor productivity grew by an annual average of only 1%.) Growth will slow as China's capital-to-output ratio rises toward rich-country levels and its excess labour dries up, but the country should still have a couple more decades of rapid growth in it.
今天，中国的批评者们有着相似的观点，他们认为中国的经济增长是由于大量投资的推动，并且这种增长不可能持续下去。实际上，中国TFP的增长速度比亚洲其它国家都要快。在过去的25年里，它的TFP年均增长3%，大约与资本投入所拉动的GDP增幅相当。（同一时期，美国的TFP每年仅增长1%）当中国的资本产出比增长到发达国家水平的时候，他的经济发展速度将会放缓，剩余劳动力资源也将日益枯竭，但是中国经济的快速增长应该仍会持续几十年。
A race that all can win
一场可以实现多赢的经济竞赛
People love to argue about whether China or India will win the economic race, yet both can prosper together. China scores higher than India on many of the key ingredients of growth: it is more open to trade and investment, has a better record of macroeconomic stability and has put more effort into education and infrastructure. It is perhaps 10-15 years ahead of India in its economic reforms. However, in the long run India might pull ahead because its population will continue to grow long after China's has levelled off. Forecasters say that by 2030 it is likely to have more people than China.
人们喜欢讨论中国和印度究竟谁会赢得经济竞赛，但是他们可以实现双赢。在经济增长的许多关键环节中国都更胜一筹：他对贸易和投资更为开放，他的宏观经济环境更为稳定，而且对教育和基础设施也倾注了更多的心血。中国的经济改革要领先印度于大约10-15年。然而，从长远来看，印度或许会超出，因为在中国的人口停止增长后，印度人口的增长仍将持续很长时间。有人预言，到2030年印度人口数量可能会超过中国。
Brazil, Russia, India and China are the four biggest emerging economies, grouped together under the acronym BRICs, created by Goldman Sachs in 2001. These four economies account for two-fifths of the total GDP of all emerging economies. China and India are generally seen as the two giants among them. This is true in purchasing-power-parity terms, but in current dollars Brazil and Russia both produce more than India. At market exchange rates, only China and Brazil rank among the world's top ten economies, but in purchasing-power terms all four BRICs make it.
巴西、印度、中国和俄罗斯是四个最大的新兴经济国家，2001年，高盛各取他们名字的首个字母创造出BRIC一词，用以指代这四个国家。他们的GDP总量是整个新兴经济体GDP总量的五分之二。一般而言，中国和印度通常被认为是新兴经济国家中的两个巨头。若以购买力平价理论（3P）核算，事实确实如此。然而若以当前美元计算，巴西和俄罗斯都超过了印度。此外，如果采用市场汇率核算，则只有中国和巴西挤身世界十大经济体。但若以3P理论计，巴印中俄四国皆位居前十。
Goldman's economists predict that if governments stick to policies that support growth, by 2040 China will be the world's biggest economy at market exchange rates. By then there will be five emerging economies in the top ten: the four BRICs plus Mexico (see chart 4). Together, they will be bigger in dollar terms than the G7 economies.
高盛的经济学家预测，如果继续实行有利于经济增长的政策，并且按市场汇率核算，那么，到2040年中国将成为世界上的最大经济体。届时，世界前十里将会出现五个新兴经济国家的身影：除却BRICs外，还有墨西哥。按美元价格计算，这五个国家的经济总量将会超过G7。
These forecasts assume, realistically, that growth in the BRICs will slow significantly by the end of the period. About one-third of the projected increase in the dollar value of the BRICs' GDPs comes from real currency appreciation rather than real growth. As countries' relative productivity rises, their exchange rates should move closer to purchasing-power parity.
这些预言很务实，他们认为，临近2040年，BRICs的经济增长将会明显放缓。若以美元来衡量他们的GDP总量，则其GDP预期增长的三分之一来自于实际货币升值而非真正的经济增长。当他们的相对生产率提高时，其汇率应该与购买力平价愈加接近。
However impressive, the forecasts still leave income per head in the BRICs well below those in developed countries. In 2040 the average American will still be three to four times richer than the average Chinese. Faster growth will not automatically end third-world poverty; that depends on how the fruits of growth are shared. But faster growth will make this goal more achievable. And as they move towards it, these economies will leave an ever larger footprint on the globe.
无论这些预言给人们留下了多么深刻的印象，高盛的经济学家们依然认为，届时，四国的人均收入水平仍将远低于发达国家。2040年，美国的人均收入依旧会是中国的三到四倍。高速的经济增长并不会自动消除第三世界的贫困；实际上，这取决于他们如何分享经济发展的硕果，但是可以肯定，高速的经济增长会让这个目标更容易实现。在实现这个梦想的征途上，新兴经济体将会在这个星球上留下更为深刻的足迹。
SURVEY: WORLD ECONOMY
Emerging at last
千呼万唤始出来
Sep 14th 2006
From The Economist print edition
Developing economies are having a good run
新兴经济体正在稳步快速发展
IN 1994 this newspaper launched a new emerging-market indicators page to mark “a fundamental and remarkably rapid change in the balance of the world economy”. Emerging economies were then growing twice as fast as the rich ones, and their stockmarkets were surging. But the timing of the launch was awful. It came at the start of a dismal decade for emerging economies, with crises in Mexico at the end of 1994, Asia in 1997, Russia in 1998, Brazil in 1999, Turkey in 2000, Argentina in 2001 and Venezuela in 2002. By 2002 the MSCI emerging-market share-price index had lost almost 60% of its 1994 value. Last year it regained that peak. But is the current economic boom any more sustainable?
1994年，本报发布了一个新兴市场指标页以铭记世界经济格局中那些根本的、显著的快速变化。那时，新兴经济体以两倍于富裕国家的速度飞速发展，其股票市场同样势头迅猛。但是，那是一个糟糕的发布时间。从那时开始，新兴经济体迈入了一个布满阴霾的十年，灾难纷至沓来，墨西哥在1994年底、亚洲在1997年、俄罗斯在1998年、巴西在1999年、土耳其在2000年、阿根廷在2001年、委内瑞拉在2002年分别遭受重创。截止到2002年，摩根士丹利新兴市场股价指数与94年相比已经下降了约60%。不过，去年该指数重新达到了顶峰。但是，目前的经济繁荣景象会持续下去吗？
The 25% drop in emerging stockmarkets during May and June of this year was a warning. Having tripled over the previous three years, share prices, fuelled by excessive global liquidity, had got ahead of themselves and a correction was overdue. However, the economies themselves look in better shape than for decades. Over the past five years GDP per head in the emerging economies has grown by an annual average of 5.6%, compared with only 1.9% in the developed world. In the preceding 20 years GDP per head in poor countries had been growing by an average of 2.5%, little more than in rich economies.
今年五月份至六月份，新兴股票市场下跌了25%，这为人们敲响了警钟。过去三年内，由于过量全球性流动资金的刺激，股价已经增至原来的三倍，这远远超出其自身价值，而且迟迟未见回落。然而，新兴经济体看起来要比其自身过去数十年来的状况好的多。过去五年内，他们的人均GDP以年均5.6%的速度增长，而发达国家不过是1.9%。最近的20年来，贫困国家的人均GDP以年均2.5%的速度均长，也略高于富裕国家。
Deep and crisp and even
深刻，均衡，但依然脆弱
In the past, as some economies sprinted, others stumbled. Today rapid growth is more evenly spread. This year, for the third year running, all of the 32 biggest emerging economies tracked weekly by The Economist are showing positive growth. In every previous year since the 1970s at least one emerging economy, often several, suffered a recession, if not a severe financial crisis.
过去，在新兴经济体内总会有一些国家飞速发展，而另有一些国家蹒跚而行。自20世纪70年代以来，即使没有出现严重的金融危机，也至少总会有一个（常常是几个）新兴经济国家遭遇经济衰退。如今，快速的增长则显得更加广泛。今年，所有32个最大的新兴经济国家都出现了正增长，《经济学人》每周都会对他们进行追踪，今年已经是第三年。
Even Africa's prospects look brighter than they have done for many years. In the last quarter of the 20th century real income per person in the world's poorest region stagnated, but so far this decade Africa has put on a spurt, with GDP growth above 5% for three consecutive years, thanks largely to higher commodity prices.
即使在非洲这个世界上最贫穷的地方，其前景也比过去许多年以来都要明朗。在20世纪的最后25年，他们的人均实际收入一直裹足不前，但是在新世纪的第一个十年里，非洲上演了一出飞速发展的好戏。到目前为止，其GDP已经连续三年以高于5%的速度增长，而这主要归功于更高的商品价格。
Developing countries have also benefited from America's consumer-spending binge, which has sucked in imports; and from historically low global interest rates, which have lowered debt-service costs. But favourable external factors played only a minor part in the revival of emerging economies. Much more importantly, their underlying economic health has improved. Structural reforms and sounder macroeconomic policies have made them more able to sustain robust growth and to withstand adverse shocks. Inflation has been tamed and many countries have trimmed their budget deficits; indeed, on average they are running much smaller deficits than the rich world.
发展中国家的经济繁荣亦得益于美国的消费狂热，这促使美国大量进口商品；他们也从历史上较低的全球利率中获益，这使得他们大降低了债务利息支出。但是，有利的外部因素在新兴经济国家的复苏中仅仅扮演了一个很小的角色。更重要的是，他们内在的经济健康状况得到了改善。经济结构改革和更加合理的宏观经济政策令他们能够得心应手的维持经济的健康增长，处理负面冲击也显得游刃有余。他们很好的驾奴了通货膨胀，许多国家成功削弱了财政赤字；实际上，他们的平均财政赤字要比富裕国家小得多。
Emerging economies are also much less dependent on foreign capital than they were a decade ago, leaving them less vulnerable to the whims of investors. As a group, they are in their eighth year of current-account surplus, having been in deficit for most of the previous 20. Their average ratio of foreign debt to exports has tumbled from 174% in 1998 to an estimated 75% this year. Foreign-exchange reserves have swollen to nine months' import cover, compared with only five months' just before the Asian crisis in 1997. And most emerging economies no longer fix their currencies at the grossly overvalued rates that contributed to past financial crises. If anything, the currencies of China and some other Asian countries are now undervalued.
与十年前相比，他们大大减弱了对外资的倚重，这令他们能够自如地应对投资者的率性之举。做为一个整体，他们迎来了自己的第八个贸易顺差之年，而在此前的二十年间，他们绝大部分时间都处于逆差地位。外债与出口的比率已从1998年174%降至今年的75%（估计值）。外汇储备支持进口时间从97年亚洲金融危机前的五个月增至现在的9个月。此外，他们大部分都放弃了偏高的固定江率制度，因为正是这种制度在某种程度上导致了过去的金融危机。如果还有什么不同的话，那就是中国以及其他几个亚洲国家的汇率现在倒是有些偏低了。
Over the past few years all regions have enjoyed brisker growth, but some are in better shape than others. Emerging European economies have the least healthy external balances. Hungary and Turkey have current-account deficits of 7-8% of GDP. When investors dumped emerging-market assets in May and June of this year, these countries were hit hardest.
在过去的几年里，所有的新兴经济地区都在飞速发展，但水平参差不齐。欧洲新兴经济国家拥有的外在有利条件不甚理想。匈牙利和土耳其的贸易逆差已占到其GDP的7%-8%。今年五六月份，当投资者在这些地区抛售其资产时，此类国家都损失惨重。
Emerging economies still face many potential risks, from banking crises to unrest in response to widening income inequality. Some could be badly hurt by a slump in demand in America or China and a consequent fall in commodity prices. Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley argues that the weakness of emerging economies is no longer their dependence on external finance, as in the 1990s, but their dependence on external demand.
此外，新兴经济国家还面临着许多潜在风险，银行业危机和日益扩大的收入差距导致的动荡不安都会对其产生威胁。如果美国或中国的需求锐减，商品价格就会随之下跌，一些国家就很有可能受到严重打击。摩根士丹利的史蒂芬•罗奇认为，新兴经济国家的弱点已经改变，在1990年代，它来自于对外部资金的依赖，现在对外部需求的倚重却成为其软肋。
Just like America during its take-off in the late 19th century, emerging economies tend to be subject to economic ups and downs. But what matters most for their long-term prospects are their economic policies. They need to take advantage of the present period of strong growth to push ahead with reforms. Governments that still have large budget deficits, notably in central and eastern Europe, must wield the axe. Others, such as China, need to clean up their banking systems. Almost everywhere, governments can do more to free up markets and reduce their own meddling. In Asia, that includes allowing greater exchange-rate flexibility.
正如19世纪晚期美国经济开始腾飞之时那样，新兴经济国家的经济状况不甚稳定，容易出现动荡起伏。但是，真正关系着他们长远发展前景的是其经济政策。他们应该利用目前这段经济强劲增长的时期来推进其改革进程。财政赤字依然较大的政府，特别是中东欧国家，必须挥起利斧，采取果断措施。其它国家，比如中国，应该清理其银行系统。几乎每一个新兴经济国家，都需要进一步放开市场减少干预。在亚洲，这将包括一个更富弹性的外汇比率机制。
Rich economies can grow only by inventing new technology or management methods. Poor countries, in theory, should find it easy to grow faster because they can boost their productivity by adopting innovations from richer ones. In the past, such opportunities were all too often squandered through bad policies. But if structural reforms continue, there is huge future potential for growth.
富裕国家只能通过发明新技术或新的管理发法来向前发展。但是理论上说，贫穷国家的发展速度却应该更快些，因为他们可以采用富裕国家的创新发明来提高生产力。过去，这样的机会大都因糟糕的政策而浪费掉了。然而，如果经济结构改革能够持续下去，他们有着巨大的发展潜力。
Alwyn Young, an American economist, caused a stir in the mid-1990s (just before the East Asian crisis) by suggesting that East Asia's growth miracle was a myth. He calculated that most of the region's faster growth was due to increased inputs of labour and capital rather than to total factor productivity growth (the efficiency with which inputs of both capital and labour are used). Paul Krugman, another American economist, summed up Mr Young's discovery thus: “The miracle turns out to have been based on perspiration rather than inspiration.”
1990年代中期（正是东亚金融危机前夕），美国经济学家埃尔维恩•杨声称，东亚的经济增长奇迹只是一个神话，这在当时引起了轩然大波。他认为，该地区经济的快速增长主要是因为劳动力和资金投入的提高，而不是全要素生产率（TFP，指劳动力和资本投入的利用效率）增长的结果。另一位美国经济学家保罗•克鲁格曼这样总结杨的结论：事实证明，东亚经济奇迹源自流汗，而非灵感。
In fact, Mr Young underestimated the growth in total factor productivity in the Asian tiger countries, which had actually been considerably faster than in rich economies. Moreover, developing economies do not need inspiration to catch up. In the early stages of development, it is enough to maintain high rates of investment and copy techniques that have proved successful elsewhere. Asia worked its “miracle” by creating the right conditions for high investment: a high saving rate, open markets and a good education system.
实际上，杨低估了亚洲虎们的TFP增长速度，它比发达国家都要快。而且，新兴经济体并不需要灵感来赶超发达国家。在早期发展阶段，他们只需要维持较高的投资利率，移值在别处已获得成功的技术就可以了。亚洲经济奇迹正是通过营造一个良好的引资环境来实现的：高储蓄率，开放的市场以及一个优秀的教育系统功不可没。
Today, China's critics similarly argue that its growth has been driven largely by wasteful investment and cannot be sustained. In fact, total factor productivity growth in China has been even faster than in the rest of Asia. Over the past quarter-century it has averaged 3% a year, accounting for roughly the same amount of GDP growth as capital investment. (Over the same period, America's total factor productivity grew by an annual average of only 1%.) Growth will slow as China's capital-to-output ratio rises toward rich-country levels and its excess labour dries up, but the country should still have a couple more decades of rapid growth in it.
今天，中国的批评者们有着相似的观点，他们认为中国的经济增长是由于大量投资的推动，并且这种增长不可能持续下去。实际上，中国TFP的增长速度比亚洲其它国家都要快。在过去的25年里，它的TFP年均增长3%，大约与资本投入所拉动的GDP增幅相当。（同一时期，美国的TFP每年仅增长1%）当中国的资本产出比增长到发达国家水平的时候，他的经济发展速度将会放缓，剩余劳动力资源也将日益枯竭，但是中国经济的快速增长应该仍会持续几十年。
A race that all can win
一场可以实现多赢的经济竞赛
People love to argue about whether China or India will win the economic race, yet both can prosper together. China scores higher than India on many of the key ingredients of growth: it is more open to trade and investment, has a better record of macroeconomic stability and has put more effort into education and infrastructure. It is perhaps 10-15 years ahead of India in its economic reforms. However, in the long run India might pull ahead because its population will continue to grow long after China's has levelled off. Forecasters say that by 2030 it is likely to have more people than China.
人们喜欢讨论中国和印度究竟谁会赢得经济竞赛，但是他们可以实现双赢。在经济增长的许多关键环节中国都更胜一筹：他对贸易和投资更为开放，他的宏观经济环境更为稳定，而且对教育和基础设施也倾注了更多的心血。中国的经济改革要领先印度于大约10-15年。然而，从长远来看，印度或许会超出，因为在中国的人口停止增长后，印度人口的增长仍将持续很长时间。有人预言，到2030年印度人口数量可能会超过中国。
Brazil, Russia, India and China are the four biggest emerging economies, grouped together under the acronym BRICs, created by Goldman Sachs in 2001. These four economies account for two-fifths of the total GDP of all emerging economies. China and India are generally seen as the two giants among them. This is true in purchasing-power-parity terms, but in current dollars Brazil and Russia both produce more than India. At market exchange rates, only China and Brazil rank among the world's top ten economies, but in purchasing-power terms all four BRICs make it.
巴西、印度、中国和俄罗斯是四个最大的新兴经济国家，2001年，高盛各取他们名字的首个字母创造出BRIC一词，用以指代这四个国家。他们的GDP总量是整个新兴经济体GDP总量的五分之二。一般而言，中国和印度通常被认为是新兴经济国家中的两个巨头。若以购买力平价理论（3P）核算，事实确实如此。然而若以当前美元计算，巴西和俄罗斯都超过了印度。此外，如果采用市场汇率核算，则只有中国和巴西挤身世界十大经济体。但若以3P理论计，巴印中俄四国皆位居前十。
Goldman's economists predict that if governments stick to policies that support growth, by 2040 China will be the world's biggest economy at market exchange rates. By then there will be five emerging economies in the top ten: the four BRICs plus Mexico (see chart 4). Together, they will be bigger in dollar terms than the G7 economies.
高盛的经济学家预测，如果继续实行有利于经济增长的政策，并且按市场汇率核算，那么，到2040年中国将成为世界上的最大经济体。届时，世界前十里将会出现五个新兴经济国家的身影：除却BRICs外，还有墨西哥。按美元价格计算，这五个国家的经济总量将会超过G7。
These forecasts assume, realistically, that growth in the BRICs will slow significantly by the end of the period. About one-third of the projected increase in the dollar value of the BRICs' GDPs comes from real currency appreciation rather than real growth. As countries' relative productivity rises, their exchange rates should move closer to purchasing-power parity.
这些预言很务实，他们认为，临近2040年，BRICs的经济增长将会明显放缓。若以美元来衡量他们的GDP总量，则其GDP预期增长的三分之一来自于实际货币升值而非真正的经济增长。当他们的相对生产率提高时，其汇率应该与购买力平价愈加接近。
However impressive, the forecasts still leave income per head in the BRICs well below those in developed countries. In 2040 the average American will still be three to four times richer than the average Chinese. Faster growth will not automatically end third-world poverty; that depends on how the fruits of growth are shared. But faster growth will make this goal more achievable. And as they move towards it, these economies will leave an ever larger footprint on the globe.
无论这些预言给人们留下了多么深刻的印象，高盛的经济学家们依然认为，届时，四国的人均收入水平仍将远低于发达国家。2040年，美国的人均收入依旧会是中国的三到四倍。高速的经济增长并不会自动消除第三世界的贫困；实际上，这取决于他们如何分享经济发展的硕果，但是可以肯定，高速的经济增长会让这个目标更容易实现。在实现这个梦想的征途上，新兴经济体将会在这个星球上留下更为深刻的足迹。
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