南美由谁领导
关键词： 南美，领导Who leads Latin America?
南美由谁领导？
A champion of Brazil's poor, Lula has lost ground to corruption, economic torpor and his Venezuelan rival
面对贪污腐败、经济不振、以及委内瑞拉总统查维斯，巴西的平民领袖卢拉正节节败退
FOUR years ago, when he was elected Brazil's president by a landslide, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seemed destined to become the spokesman for a new, more confident and more socially just Latin America. Not only does Brazil, the world's fourth-largest democracy, have legitimate aspirations to regional leadership and to a bigger role in the world. Mr da Silva's own life story—the seventh child of a dirt-poor family from the north-eastern backlands who rose to become a trade-union leader—entitled him to assume the moral leadership of a new, democratic Latin American left, one that seemed to have freed itself from the past attachment to an all-powerful state. Four years on, Lula (as Mr da Silva is universally known) seems almost certain to win a second term, either in a general election on October 1st or in a run-off ballot a month later. Sadly, however, he has lost some of his lustre.
四年前，当卢拉以压倒性优势击败对手当选巴西总统时，仿佛他注定将成为一个崭新的、更加自信的、社会更加公平的拉丁美洲的代言人。这不仅因为巴西作为全世界第四大民主国家，热切期望成为区内领袖并在国际事务中扮演更重要的角色，而且卢拉的身世也起了很大作用——他出身巴西东北一个贫困潦倒的家庭，作为家中的第七个孩子，后来一跃成为工会领袖。由平民出身的卢拉来领导刚刚脱离超级大国支配的崭新、民主的拉美左派，于情于理都再合适不过了。四年过去了，卢拉（现在许多人都叫他达·席尔瓦先生）几乎将肯定赢得10月1日的大选，或者赢得一个月之后的最终选举，从而获得他的第二个任期。然而可悲的是，这位巴西的总统，已经不复往日的光彩。
His is not the loudest voice coming out of Latin America, nor even of its left. That belongs to Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's populist president. On September 20th, in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Mr Chávez trumped even Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the adolescent stridency of his anti-Americanism, referring to George Bush as “the devil”. Loudness is not necessarily persuasive. But Mr Chávez is a cunning communicator who commands a deep well of oil money. He has dispensed largesse from Argentina to Africa (see article), and hopes that this will win Venezuela one of the two rotating seats for Latin America on the UN Security Council. For this he has secured the additional support of Russia and China, as well as that of a bunch of dictators from Belarus to North Korea.
卢拉决不是拉丁美洲最聒噪的领导人，甚至在拉美左派中也算不上。这个殊荣属于委内瑞拉的平民主义总统雨果·查维斯。在9月20日联合国大会的一次讲话中，查维斯狂热刺耳的反美情绪甚至盖过了伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德，他公然把布什称为“魔鬼”。诚然，有理不在声高，但查维斯先生是个掌握大量石油的精明的交际家。他给许多国家提供援助，从阿根廷到非洲，为的是委内瑞拉能够赢得南美州在联合国安理会两个轮换席位中的一个。为了这个目的，他还许诺为中国和俄罗斯提供额外的支持，得到他支持的国家还包括一大堆独裁者领导的国家，从白俄罗斯到朝鲜。
Latin America's democracies have legitimate quarrels with Mr Bush and the United States. But it is hard to see how their interests will be effectively represented by Mr Chávez, an elected autocrat with a habit of trying to wreck any grouping he is unable to control. What is truly odd is that Venezuela's UN candidacy has the backing of Brazil. Lula is thus helping to offer his chief rival for leadership in South America a global platform. His view is that the best way to contain Mr Chávez is to include him, in the
Mercosur trade group for example. This looks shortsightedly self-serving: it is a sop from Lula to his party's left-wing, which disagrees with his economic policies. And Mr Chávez's response? To help to humiliate Brazil in Bolivia, where Petrobras's oil and gas assets face nationalisation, and to work to undermine the democratic, free-market principles on which Brazil founded Mercosur.
拉丁美洲的民主导致了他们与布什总统和美国的矛盾。查维斯总统是一个选举产生的独裁者，但凡无法控制的团体组织，他都要予以打击。因此拉丁美洲与美国之间矛盾的原因，并不能由查维斯先生的立场来代表。非常奇怪的是，委内瑞拉在联合国的候选人地位是由巴西支持的。查维斯是与卢拉争夺区内领导地位最主要的对手，但是卢拉却为查维斯提供了国际平台。卢拉认为控制查维斯最好的方法，就是吸纳他成为己方的一员，巴西帮助委内瑞拉加入南美自由贸易公约就是明证。这样的做法显得短视而自私：党内左翼反对卢拉的经济政策，卢拉对查维斯的态度起到了安抚左翼反对派的作用。那么查维斯对此的回应又如何呢？巴西石油，是巴西在玻利维亚的石油天然气公司，它的资产正在面临国有化，查维斯却在帮助这一进程，企图损害巴西的利益。查维斯还破坏南美自由贸易公约的民主、自由市场准则，而这一准则的缔造者正是巴西。
Apart from the naivety of Lula's foreign policy in South America, there are two graver reasons why Brazil's president has lost his shine. One is that he has presided over a worsening of political corruption in Brazil. Last year, it emerged that several of his closest aides had orchestrated a scheme under which a score of legislators from allied parties were paid cash in return for their votes in Congress. This month, a new scandal erupted: members of Lula's campaign team quit after arranging to pay for and publish documents smearing opponents by linking them to a different corruption scheme. To cap it all, Antonio Palocci, Lula's effective finance minister for much of his first term and perhaps his future party leader in Congress, may face charges over yet another scam.
卢拉总统不复当年的光彩，除了由于他在南美幼稚的外交政策外，还有两个更严重的原因。去年曾暴出丑闻，在卢拉总统的几个亲信的精心策划下，同盟党派的二十名立法委员收受贿赂，在国会投出支持票。本月又暴出新丑闻，卢拉总统的竞选团队中，有人捏造文件诬赖竞选对手与腐败有染。更糟的是，卢拉第一个任期大部分时间中最得力的财政部长，也许还会是他未来国会中的党派领导的安东尼奥·帕罗西奥，可能因另外一件丑闻面临指控。
The economy is a further disappointment. Lula and Mr Palocci sensibly steered clear of debt default and stuck to responsible macroeconomic policies. But Brazil's economy has only crept along, growing by an average of just 2.8% a year under Lula. Swelling tax revenues, rather than smarter spending, have kept the fiscal accounts under control. Investment is restrained by red tape, poor infrastructure and regulatory uncertainty, as well as by the crippling tax burden on business.
经济发展缓慢带来了更大的失望。卢拉总统和财政部长帕罗西奥不失时机的致力于清偿债务，并坚持负责的宏观经济政策。事与愿违的是巴西经济仍然进展缓慢，在卢拉任内的年经济增长率只有2.8%。政府并不急于过度开支，而是专注于增加税收，从而保持经济指数在可控范围内。官僚的繁文缛节、糟糕的基础设施、监管法规的不确定性和经营者肩上沉重的税收压力，这些都限制了投资。
It is all the more remarkable, then, that Lula is heading for a second term that in many ways seems unwarranted. Most Brazilians long ago concluded that their country's politicians are irredeemably corrupt. But many identify in Lula one of their own, and do not see him as having benefited personally from graft. Above all, the secret of Lula's electoral success is that he has kept his promise to help poorer Brazilians (see article). Thanks to a successful anti-poverty programme that channels small cash payments to 11m
families, to low inflation, wider access to education and big increases in the minimum wage, the incomes of the poor are rising much faster than those of the middle class. The result is that in a country notorious for its inequalities, income is more equally distributed today than at any time in the past 30 years.
更重要的是，卢拉的第二个任期，在许多方面看来都是不合理的。很久以前，大多数的巴西人认为巴西的政治家在贪污腐败方面已无可救药。但现在很多人把卢拉当作平民百姓的一员，他们觉得卢拉并没有从腐败案中牟取私利。总而言之，卢拉竞选胜利的秘诀在于，他兑现了帮助巴西穷人的承诺。在卢拉任上，贫困救助项目为1100万户家庭提供了小额资助，通货膨胀保持在较低的水平，更多人受到教育，社会最低工资也有显著增长。由于这些成果，巴西穷人收入的增长比中产阶级快的多。巴西历来因社会不公平而臭名昭著，现在在卢拉的领导下，社会收入的分配比过去30年中任何时候都更公平。
How to restore the lustre
如何恢复昔日的光彩
Some of Lula's achievements owe much to his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (as does the bad habit of tax-and-spend). Brazil's ways of helping the poor look more effective, sustainable and democratic than those of Mr Chávez, who relies on showers of oil money and Cuban advisers. But continued progress will require different policies, as Lula sometimes seems to recognise. In a second term, he should make a concerted effort to pry Brazil free from its low-growth trap. That will require cuts in tax, the federal bureaucracy and wasteful government spending, as well as reforms of pensions, regulatory agencies, education and the labour market. And it will be difficult. Lula's own party resists such measures, and he may be even more at the mercy of his Congressional allies' voracious appetite for public money. To pass the needed reforms, he may need to appeal to the opposition.
卢拉的一些成就要归功于他的前任，费尔南多·恩里魁·卡多索总统（还有巴西过去收税－支出的坏习惯）。委内瑞拉总统查维斯也通过石油收入，以及他古巴朋友的建议帮助本国的穷人，但是巴西帮助穷人的方式则更加有效、持续而且民主。但是如果巴西想继续发展的话，政策就需要有所调整了，卢拉总统可能也意识到了这一点。在第二个任期上，他应当像承诺的那样将巴西拉出经济低增长的泥潭。这需要降低税收、减少联邦官僚主义、削减政府浪费的支出，同时还需要对养老金、监督机构、教育和劳动市场的改革。这将会非常艰难。卢拉所在的政党坚持这些措施，但是国会联盟对于国有资金的贪得无厌，会在很大程度上制约卢拉的改革。为能够在国会通过改革方案，卢拉可能需要得到反对派的更多支持。
Brazil is often bracketed with China, India and Russia as one of the world's emerging economic powers. When it comes to economic growth, that is to flatter it. (It is also misleading: Brazil had a growth spurt from the 1950s to the 1970s, and is now a middle-income country in which sustaining rapid growth is harder.) If its economy were expanding by 5% or 6% a year, Brazil's claim to regional leadership would carry greater weight. And if Lula took serious steps to clean up Brazilian politics—by pushing for more accountable party and electoral systems—he would start to restore his own claims to moral leadership of the region's left. That is something from which both Brazil and Latin America would benefit.
巴西经常和中国、印度、俄罗斯一起，被并称为当今世界迅速崛起的经济大国。如果是以经济增长为标准的话，那么这个说法就太抬举巴西了。（这也容易使人误解：巴西早在20世纪50年代到70年代就经历了爆发式的经济增长，现在他已经是一个中等收入国家，对中等收入国家来说，持续快速增长要困难的多。）如果巴西经济能够保持5到6个百分点的年增长率，那么它要成为区内领袖的豪言壮语就会显得更加有力。如果卢拉能够采取认真的行动清洁巴西的政治，比如推进政党和选举体系变得更加值得信赖，那么他将能够兑现成为区内左翼道德领袖的宣言。如果事情真能这样发展的话，巴西和整个拉丁美洲都会从中受益。翻译 by telaviv
南美由谁领导？
A champion of Brazil's poor, Lula has lost ground to corruption, economic torpor and his Venezuelan rival
面对贪污腐败、经济不振、以及委内瑞拉总统查维斯，巴西的平民领袖卢拉正节节败退
FOUR years ago, when he was elected Brazil's president by a landslide, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seemed destined to become the spokesman for a new, more confident and more socially just Latin America. Not only does Brazil, the world's fourth-largest democracy, have legitimate aspirations to regional leadership and to a bigger role in the world. Mr da Silva's own life story—the seventh child of a dirt-poor family from the north-eastern backlands who rose to become a trade-union leader—entitled him to assume the moral leadership of a new, democratic Latin American left, one that seemed to have freed itself from the past attachment to an all-powerful state. Four years on, Lula (as Mr da Silva is universally known) seems almost certain to win a second term, either in a general election on October 1st or in a run-off ballot a month later. Sadly, however, he has lost some of his lustre.
四年前，当卢拉以压倒性优势击败对手当选巴西总统时，仿佛他注定将成为一个崭新的、更加自信的、社会更加公平的拉丁美洲的代言人。这不仅因为巴西作为全世界第四大民主国家，热切期望成为区内领袖并在国际事务中扮演更重要的角色，而且卢拉的身世也起了很大作用——他出身巴西东北一个贫困潦倒的家庭，作为家中的第七个孩子，后来一跃成为工会领袖。由平民出身的卢拉来领导刚刚脱离超级大国支配的崭新、民主的拉美左派，于情于理都再合适不过了。四年过去了，卢拉（现在许多人都叫他达·席尔瓦先生）几乎将肯定赢得10月1日的大选，或者赢得一个月之后的最终选举，从而获得他的第二个任期。然而可悲的是，这位巴西的总统，已经不复往日的光彩。
His is not the loudest voice coming out of Latin America, nor even of its left. That belongs to Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's populist president. On September 20th, in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Mr Chávez trumped even Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the adolescent stridency of his anti-Americanism, referring to George Bush as “the devil”. Loudness is not necessarily persuasive. But Mr Chávez is a cunning communicator who commands a deep well of oil money. He has dispensed largesse from Argentina to Africa (see article), and hopes that this will win Venezuela one of the two rotating seats for Latin America on the UN Security Council. For this he has secured the additional support of Russia and China, as well as that of a bunch of dictators from Belarus to North Korea.
卢拉决不是拉丁美洲最聒噪的领导人，甚至在拉美左派中也算不上。这个殊荣属于委内瑞拉的平民主义总统雨果·查维斯。在9月20日联合国大会的一次讲话中，查维斯狂热刺耳的反美情绪甚至盖过了伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德，他公然把布什称为“魔鬼”。诚然，有理不在声高，但查维斯先生是个掌握大量石油的精明的交际家。他给许多国家提供援助，从阿根廷到非洲，为的是委内瑞拉能够赢得南美州在联合国安理会两个轮换席位中的一个。为了这个目的，他还许诺为中国和俄罗斯提供额外的支持，得到他支持的国家还包括一大堆独裁者领导的国家，从白俄罗斯到朝鲜。
Latin America's democracies have legitimate quarrels with Mr Bush and the United States. But it is hard to see how their interests will be effectively represented by Mr Chávez, an elected autocrat with a habit of trying to wreck any grouping he is unable to control. What is truly odd is that Venezuela's UN candidacy has the backing of Brazil. Lula is thus helping to offer his chief rival for leadership in South America a global platform. His view is that the best way to contain Mr Chávez is to include him, in the
Mercosur trade group for example. This looks shortsightedly self-serving: it is a sop from Lula to his party's left-wing, which disagrees with his economic policies. And Mr Chávez's response? To help to humiliate Brazil in Bolivia, where Petrobras's oil and gas assets face nationalisation, and to work to undermine the democratic, free-market principles on which Brazil founded Mercosur.
拉丁美洲的民主导致了他们与布什总统和美国的矛盾。查维斯总统是一个选举产生的独裁者，但凡无法控制的团体组织，他都要予以打击。因此拉丁美洲与美国之间矛盾的原因，并不能由查维斯先生的立场来代表。非常奇怪的是，委内瑞拉在联合国的候选人地位是由巴西支持的。查维斯是与卢拉争夺区内领导地位最主要的对手，但是卢拉却为查维斯提供了国际平台。卢拉认为控制查维斯最好的方法，就是吸纳他成为己方的一员，巴西帮助委内瑞拉加入南美自由贸易公约就是明证。这样的做法显得短视而自私：党内左翼反对卢拉的经济政策，卢拉对查维斯的态度起到了安抚左翼反对派的作用。那么查维斯对此的回应又如何呢？巴西石油，是巴西在玻利维亚的石油天然气公司，它的资产正在面临国有化，查维斯却在帮助这一进程，企图损害巴西的利益。查维斯还破坏南美自由贸易公约的民主、自由市场准则，而这一准则的缔造者正是巴西。
Apart from the naivety of Lula's foreign policy in South America, there are two graver reasons why Brazil's president has lost his shine. One is that he has presided over a worsening of political corruption in Brazil. Last year, it emerged that several of his closest aides had orchestrated a scheme under which a score of legislators from allied parties were paid cash in return for their votes in Congress. This month, a new scandal erupted: members of Lula's campaign team quit after arranging to pay for and publish documents smearing opponents by linking them to a different corruption scheme. To cap it all, Antonio Palocci, Lula's effective finance minister for much of his first term and perhaps his future party leader in Congress, may face charges over yet another scam.
卢拉总统不复当年的光彩，除了由于他在南美幼稚的外交政策外，还有两个更严重的原因。去年曾暴出丑闻，在卢拉总统的几个亲信的精心策划下，同盟党派的二十名立法委员收受贿赂，在国会投出支持票。本月又暴出新丑闻，卢拉总统的竞选团队中，有人捏造文件诬赖竞选对手与腐败有染。更糟的是，卢拉第一个任期大部分时间中最得力的财政部长，也许还会是他未来国会中的党派领导的安东尼奥·帕罗西奥，可能因另外一件丑闻面临指控。
The economy is a further disappointment. Lula and Mr Palocci sensibly steered clear of debt default and stuck to responsible macroeconomic policies. But Brazil's economy has only crept along, growing by an average of just 2.8% a year under Lula. Swelling tax revenues, rather than smarter spending, have kept the fiscal accounts under control. Investment is restrained by red tape, poor infrastructure and regulatory uncertainty, as well as by the crippling tax burden on business.
经济发展缓慢带来了更大的失望。卢拉总统和财政部长帕罗西奥不失时机的致力于清偿债务，并坚持负责的宏观经济政策。事与愿违的是巴西经济仍然进展缓慢，在卢拉任内的年经济增长率只有2.8%。政府并不急于过度开支，而是专注于增加税收，从而保持经济指数在可控范围内。官僚的繁文缛节、糟糕的基础设施、监管法规的不确定性和经营者肩上沉重的税收压力，这些都限制了投资。
It is all the more remarkable, then, that Lula is heading for a second term that in many ways seems unwarranted. Most Brazilians long ago concluded that their country's politicians are irredeemably corrupt. But many identify in Lula one of their own, and do not see him as having benefited personally from graft. Above all, the secret of Lula's electoral success is that he has kept his promise to help poorer Brazilians (see article). Thanks to a successful anti-poverty programme that channels small cash payments to 11m
families, to low inflation, wider access to education and big increases in the minimum wage, the incomes of the poor are rising much faster than those of the middle class. The result is that in a country notorious for its inequalities, income is more equally distributed today than at any time in the past 30 years.
更重要的是，卢拉的第二个任期，在许多方面看来都是不合理的。很久以前，大多数的巴西人认为巴西的政治家在贪污腐败方面已无可救药。但现在很多人把卢拉当作平民百姓的一员，他们觉得卢拉并没有从腐败案中牟取私利。总而言之，卢拉竞选胜利的秘诀在于，他兑现了帮助巴西穷人的承诺。在卢拉任上，贫困救助项目为1100万户家庭提供了小额资助，通货膨胀保持在较低的水平，更多人受到教育，社会最低工资也有显著增长。由于这些成果，巴西穷人收入的增长比中产阶级快的多。巴西历来因社会不公平而臭名昭著，现在在卢拉的领导下，社会收入的分配比过去30年中任何时候都更公平。
How to restore the lustre
如何恢复昔日的光彩
Some of Lula's achievements owe much to his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (as does the bad habit of tax-and-spend). Brazil's ways of helping the poor look more effective, sustainable and democratic than those of Mr Chávez, who relies on showers of oil money and Cuban advisers. But continued progress will require different policies, as Lula sometimes seems to recognise. In a second term, he should make a concerted effort to pry Brazil free from its low-growth trap. That will require cuts in tax, the federal bureaucracy and wasteful government spending, as well as reforms of pensions, regulatory agencies, education and the labour market. And it will be difficult. Lula's own party resists such measures, and he may be even more at the mercy of his Congressional allies' voracious appetite for public money. To pass the needed reforms, he may need to appeal to the opposition.
卢拉的一些成就要归功于他的前任，费尔南多·恩里魁·卡多索总统（还有巴西过去收税－支出的坏习惯）。委内瑞拉总统查维斯也通过石油收入，以及他古巴朋友的建议帮助本国的穷人，但是巴西帮助穷人的方式则更加有效、持续而且民主。但是如果巴西想继续发展的话，政策就需要有所调整了，卢拉总统可能也意识到了这一点。在第二个任期上，他应当像承诺的那样将巴西拉出经济低增长的泥潭。这需要降低税收、减少联邦官僚主义、削减政府浪费的支出，同时还需要对养老金、监督机构、教育和劳动市场的改革。这将会非常艰难。卢拉所在的政党坚持这些措施，但是国会联盟对于国有资金的贪得无厌，会在很大程度上制约卢拉的改革。为能够在国会通过改革方案，卢拉可能需要得到反对派的更多支持。
Brazil is often bracketed with China, India and Russia as one of the world's emerging economic powers. When it comes to economic growth, that is to flatter it. (It is also misleading: Brazil had a growth spurt from the 1950s to the 1970s, and is now a middle-income country in which sustaining rapid growth is harder.) If its economy were expanding by 5% or 6% a year, Brazil's claim to regional leadership would carry greater weight. And if Lula took serious steps to clean up Brazilian politics—by pushing for more accountable party and electoral systems—he would start to restore his own claims to moral leadership of the region's left. That is something from which both Brazil and Latin America would benefit.
巴西经常和中国、印度、俄罗斯一起，被并称为当今世界迅速崛起的经济大国。如果是以经济增长为标准的话，那么这个说法就太抬举巴西了。（这也容易使人误解：巴西早在20世纪50年代到70年代就经历了爆发式的经济增长，现在他已经是一个中等收入国家，对中等收入国家来说，持续快速增长要困难的多。）如果巴西经济能够保持5到6个百分点的年增长率，那么它要成为区内领袖的豪言壮语就会显得更加有力。如果卢拉能够采取认真的行动清洁巴西的政治，比如推进政党和选举体系变得更加值得信赖，那么他将能够兑现成为区内左翼道德领袖的宣言。如果事情真能这样发展的话，巴西和整个拉丁美洲都会从中受益。翻译 by telaviv
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