The euro area's economy 欧元区经济
关键词： economy ，欧元，经济The euro area's economy 欧元区经济
Feeling fitter 渐入佳境
This year the euro area's economic strength has been a source of surprise. Its longer-term prospects may be brightening too
今年欧元区的经济力量让人屡屡惊羡，它的长期前景也将是一片光明。
A MONTH ago Jean-Claude Trichet gave what markets see as his standard nod and wink: the European Central Bank (ECB), said its president, would continue to exercise “vigilance” against inflationary pressures. Stand by, in other words, for another increase in interest rates at the bank's next rate-setting meeting on October 5th. ECB-watchers were therefore well prepared when rates duly rose, by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.25%.
一个月前欧洲央行主席Jean-Claude Trichet就市场会如何反映这个问题给出了他标准的点到即止式回答：“欧洲央行会继续谨慎对待通涨压力。”换句话说，已经为10月5号银行利率设定会议上利率的再次上升埋下伏笔。因此当利率适时上升四分之一个百分点达到3.25%时欧洲央行的监管者们已经做好准备。
A slide in consumer-price inflation to 1.8% last month, greased by weaker oil prices, raised no doubts, even though this is at last “below, but close to, 2%”, the ECB's stated aim. Indeed, with real rates not much more than 1% even now, the ECB looks sure to put rates up again this year and is likely to carry on in 2007.
上个月受油价疲软的影响消费品物价涨幅下滑至1.8%也没有引起任何悬念，即使这最终低于但接近于欧洲央行设定的2%的目标。确实，即使现在真实利率不到1%，欧洲央行看起来很确定今年将继续提升利率而且在2007年仍将继续。
The euro area's economy has looked remarkably healthy this year, and keeps surprising forecasters. In The Economist's monthly poll (see article), the average prediction for GDP growth in 2006 is now 2.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points since last month and by a full point since a year ago. Admittedly, the pace has probably slowed a little since the cracking second quarter, when GDP rose by 0.9%. But the third quarter, which has just ended, was probably more than decent—judging, for instance, by retail sales figures and purchasing managers' indices for both manufacturing and services, published this week.
欧元区的经济今年看来非常健康并继续给它的预测者们带来惊喜。经济学家杂志的每月调查显示现在2006年的GDP增长的平均预测是2.5%，比上个月上升了0.2个百分点，而相较一年前则上升了一个百分点。不可否认的是从极好的第二季度开始速度就很可能已经慢了一点，当时GDP上升了0.9%。但是刚刚过去的第三季度则很可能超乎寻常的好——比如从这周发布的零售业销售数据以及制造业和服务业的采购经理人指数中判断。
The question now is whether this year, set to be the best since 2000, heralds a pick-up in the zone's long-term growth rate—limited in recent years, by most estimates, to 2% or so—or merely marks the top of the cycle. Though it is too soon to tell, there are reasons to be cheerful. For a long time, the euro area has needed two things: first, that more of its people work; second, that their productivity (ie, output per hour) rises faster. On both counts, there are signs of improvement.
现在的问题是，很可能是自2000年以来最好的一年，今年是否预示着这个区长期增长率的抬头——大部分人则预测在最近几年则限于大约2%的水平——或者仅仅只是标志着这个周期的最高点。尽管现在就下结论还为时尚早，但还是有理由感到高兴的。很长一段时间以来，欧元区需要两样东西：首先是它有更多的人从事工作，其次则是他们的生产率（每小时产出）增长的更快。如果两方面都能实现，那境况就能得到改善。
Take the labour market. At 7.9%, the euro zone's unemployment rate is roughly where it was at the peak of the last cycle, in late 2000. By now, on past form, wage pressures should be starting to burst through. But although wage costs have picked up a bit this year, their growth rate is still subdued—maybe 2.3% or 2.4% in the year to the second quarter, depending on your measure. The thought that jobs may go to central and eastern Europe, or to China, is having an effect.
举劳动力市场为例。欧元区目前的失业率是7.9%，大约相当于它在2000年后期上一轮经济周期的最高时的样子。到目前为止，按过去的形式，工资压力应该开始爆发了。但是尽管工资成本今年已经略有上升，他们的增长率依然被压制。——到第二季度为止今年大约是2.3% 或者 2.4%，这取决于你的测量方法。那种认为工作可能会转移到中欧或者东欧甚至中国的想法已经开始起作用。
It seems plain that the zone's NAIRU, the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation, has fallen. Economists at the European Commission now put it at around 8%, one percentage point less than in 1997 (though well above America's 5%). By that estimate, the jobless rate is at its limit. But it may be too conservative, given that wage growth is not exactly resurgent. The NAIRU is virtually unknowable unless wages start to take off, something that a watchful ECB is unlikely to allow.
很明显这个区的不致加剧通货膨胀的失业率,即与稳定的通涨率保持一致的失业率已经下降。欧盟委员会的经济学家们现在将它放到8%，比1997年低一个百分点（尽管比美国的5%则高的多）。按照这种预测，失业率现在达到了极限。但是在工资增长率是否重新上升并不确切的情况下，这可能就显得太过保守。除非工资开始上升否则不致加剧通货膨胀的失业率基本上是无法得知的。这也是谨慎的欧洲央行不太可能允许的。
Better still, as the commission pointed out this week in its quarterly report on the euro area, the unemployment rate has fallen even though labour supply has been increasing—by about 1% a year since the late 1990s. Perhaps most encouraging is the increase in the proportion of people aged 55 to 64—a group that many European countries have been too eager to pension off—in work or seeking it, from 37.5% in 2000 to 43.7% last year.
正如这周委员会在它关于欧元区的季度报告中指出的，即使劳动力供给已经在增长，最好失业率仍然能以自90年代后期以来的每年1%的速度下降。可能最令人鼓舞的是年龄在55到64岁的在工作或者寻找工作的人所占比率的增长，从2000年的37.5%到去年的43.7%。这个年龄段的人是很多欧洲国家急于想发给养老金使其退休的人。
On productivity, there are also encouraging early signs. Eric Chaney, an economist at Morgan Stanley, reckons that output per hour in the euro area grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in the first half of this year—twice the pace of 2000-05, the first six years of the single currency's life. He has to make estimates, because not all the official numbers are out, but his reasoning squares with French data showing hourly output rising at an annual rate of 3% .
关于生产率也有很多令人振奋的迹象。Morgan Stanley的经济学家Eric Chaney认为在欧元区每小时产出在今年上半年以每年2.6%增长——是2000-05年即该单一货币生命中的头六年增长速度的两倍。他不得不做一些计算，因为不是所有的官方数据都会公布，但是他用法国数据演绎最小二乘法则得出每小时产出以每年3%的速度增长。
Start with GDP, which rose at an annual rate of 3.4%. For GDP per worker, deduct employment growth of 1.1%, from data for France, Germany and Spain, three of the top four economies in the club. Then adjust for hours per worker, which have been declining, largely because of the recent rise of part-time employment. Because firms are probably trying to get more hours out of the existing workforce before hiring new staff, Mr Chaney supposes a slower decline than in recent years: 0.3%, against 0.9% in 2002 and 0.5% in 2004.
从每年增长3.4%的GDP开始。对每个工人的GDP，从法国，德国和西班牙的数据中减去就业增长率1.1%。这三个国家是这个集团中四大经济体中的三个。然后为每个工人的小时数做了调整。这个数据一直在下降，很大程度上是因为非全日制就业最近的上升。因为公司很可能在雇佣新的员工前尽力从现有的劳动力中得到更多的劳动时间。Chaney设想了一个相比最近几年更慢的下降：0.3%，相比之下2002年为0.9%，2004年则为0.5%。
For the whole year, Mr Chaney forecasts that output per hour will grow by 2.1%. Is this purely cyclical, or will some of the extra growth endure? “You can't say for sure,” he says, “but you get a feeling this is more than cyclical.” Above all, he thinks, European firms are beginning to reap the benefits from investing in information technology, something that America has exploited to far greater effect than Europe has. Despite all this, euro-area optimists may face a testing few months. It is not hard to see demand growth being dragged down at the start of next year by a planned rise in value-added tax in Germany and budgetary tightening in Italy.
Chaney预测每小时产出全年将增长2.1%。这是否纯粹是周期性的，或者一些额外的增长是否会持续？“你不能完全肯定的说，”他说道，“但是你有一种感觉这似乎不单单是周期性那么简单。”他想，首先，欧洲公司已经开始从投资于信息技术中获利，相比欧洲，美国则将信息技术拓展到一种更深远的境界。尽管如此，欧元区的乐观主义者们可能面对几个月的考验。并不难看见明年初需求增长将会由于德国增值税的计划上升以及意大利的紧缩预算而下降。
That said, some other possible sources of trouble may be less threatening than they now seem. America's slowdown, though hardly welcome, is one such: Europe's main source of pulling power these days is domestic demand. Oil prices may climb again, but the euro area weathered the recent spike fairly well and should get back a good slice of any extra it spends on energy imports. According to the commission's report, in 2000-05 oil exporters spent a bigger share of each extra dollar of export revenues on imports from the euro zone than they did in 1973-81. The euro area's exports to oil producers rose by 17% last year, adding 0.3% to GDP. The commission expects a further increase in 2006.
一种说法认为，一些其他可能的麻烦之源可能并没有他们现在看起来那样令人害怕。尽管不受欢迎，美国的增长缓慢就是一件这样的事情：欧洲这些日子主要的拉动力的源泉是国内需求。石油价格可能会再次爬升，但欧元区已经安然度过最近一次的油价受挫，而且应该拿回它在能源进口上任何多余的花费。根据委员会的报告，在2000-05年石油出口商将比1973-81年花费出口收益每额外一美圆的更大份额在从欧元区的进口上。欧元区对石油生产商的出口去年上升了17%，GDP则因此增长0.3%。委员会希望在2006年会有进一步增长。
A healthier euro zone, of course, should be food for thought for the ECB. In the long run, theory suggests that higher growth, other things equal, should mean higher interest rates for a given rate of inflation. In the shorter term, increased capacity, especially if demand slows, may lean against higher rates—but it is hard to see the central bank relaxing its vigilance just yet.
当然一个更加健康的欧元区应该是欧洲央行应该考虑的事。在长期，理论表明更高的增长率，其他东西也一样，对于给定水平的通涨而言应该意味着更高的利率。在短期，增加的生产量，尤其是一旦需求变缓，可能会与上升的利率相对。——但是现在还很难看到央行会放松它的警惕.翻译 by shiyi18
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