America drops, Asia shops
关键词： America AsiaLeaders
The world economy
America drops, Asia shops
美国经济增长难，亚洲消费往上攀
Oct 21th 2006
From The Economist print edition
Thanks to the vigour of Asia's consumers, it is a good time for the American economy to slow
多亏了慷慨的亚洲消费者，走缓的美国经济才没拖世界经济的后腿
IT IS a commonplace that American consumers have kept the world economy spinning. Asians are frugal, Europeans are gloomy, so if Americans do not keep spending as fast as they have been lately, the world economy is in trouble.
人们一直认为，世界经济的繁荣依赖于美国的消费。亚洲人节俭朴素，欧洲人古板守旧，所以如果美国人也不像近来这样热衷于购买，全球经济就要出乱子了。
That view will be tested over the next couple of years as Americans adjust to the end of their housing bonanza. By virtually every measure America 's housing market is in trouble. Home sales and residential construction are tumbling, the overhang of unsold homes has soared and, according to some statistics, house prices have started to slide. And despite the odd bit of good news, such as this week's figures showing that housing starts rose unexpectedly in September and builders' gloom had lifted slightly, the painful truth is that America's housing adjustment probably has a lot further to go.
在未来的几年中，伴随着楼市的冷却，这种观点将遇到挑战。事实上，美国房地产市场已是危机四伏。家庭购买与住宅区的建设止步不前，卖不出去的房子大量积压，一些调查数据还表明，房价开始悄然下跌。虽然市场上还时不时地传出一些好消息，（比如这周的统计数据证实楼市在九月份出人意料的取得了增长，建筑商们的悲观情绪也因此多少的改善了一些），但事实很严峻：美国的楼市调整依然是路漫漫其修远兮。
The effect of that adjustment on Americans' spending has yet to be felt. So far, the housing bust has hit builders most. America's GDP growth slowed to a crawl over the summer as builders cut back. Consumers have barely noticed, mainly because unemployment remains low and tumbling fuel prices have boosted their bank balances and buoyed their spirits. Petrol prices have fallen by almost 30% over the past two months. The strength of consumer spending has led many economists to argue that America is headed for a soft landing. Perhaps, but as the housing bust deepens, even the most spendthrift Americans will keep a tighter grip on their wallets. America may avoid recession, but it won't avoid a slow-down. Will it drag the world economy with it?
调整对消费的影响还不是很显著。目前为止，楼市泡沫的破灭涉及的人群以建筑商为主。由于他们削减开支、撤销项目，美国第二季度的经济增长慢如老牛拖车。不过消费者们很少注意到这些，因为他们关注的失业率一直很低，能源价格的下降也间接的增加了他们的结余，他们感到精神振奋。汽油零售价在过去的两个月里下降了近30%。基于美国消费坚挺，很多经济实体认为美国人在寻求“软着陆”。可能看起来是这样，但随着房地产危机的进一步显现，再富裕的美国人也要精打细算的过日子了。美国人也许能够避免经济衰退，但无法抵制增幅放慢。世界经济增长的节奏会不会因此而被拉慢呢？
The reason it will not is that the common view of the American consumer as the engine of the world economy is flawed. IMF figures show that Asia, not America, has been the main driver of global demand, powering the world economy through its fastest five-year period of growth since the early 1970s. That is not just because Asians are producing so much more, but also because they're buying so much more.Asian consumers are on a spending spree, splashing out on anything from mobile phones to designer clothes.
不会的。因为世界经济的原动力，并非如人们所深信的那样，是美国的消费。IMF的数据表明这一位置已让给了亚洲，自从1970年代以来，特别是经过亚洲国家高速发展的五年后，亚洲正逐渐集聚着全球主要的消费者群落。这不仅是因为“亚洲制造”增长迅速，更多的是因为亚洲人购买的越来越多。亚洲人正享受着一场物质的狂欢，为了购买从手机到名牌服饰的各种商品，他们舍得大把大把地花钱。
They know how to spend 他们懂得如何消费
Asia is the world's fastest-growing consumer market. The IMF forecasts that total household spending there will rise by almost 7% in real terms this year. In comparison, the 3% growth in American consumption looks almost parsimonious. Although America's consumer spending is still larger than the whole of Asia's in current dollars, the growth in Asian spending this year will be half as big again as that in America. Asia's consumer market already exceeds America's if converted at purchasing-power parity (which makes sense, because housing and domestic services are much cheaper in poorer countries, leaving more of a given sum to spend on consumer durables and the like). No wonder Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, is eager to expand in China. This week it agreed to buy the country's secondlargest hypermarket chain. International retailers are battling to get a stake in China as rising living standards and rapid urbanisation create masses of new consumers. On today's trends, the consumer market there, measured in PPP, will overtake America's by 2020.
亚洲是全球增长最快的消费者市场。IMF预测说今年在不动产领域亚洲家庭的消费将增长7%，相比之下，美国的3%就有些寒酸了。尽管美国在以时价计算的消费额上仍领先亚洲，增长额也是亚洲的两倍，但以实际购买力计算的话，亚洲的消费者市场已经超过了美国（这种算法更为合理，因为在穷国，房地产和国内服务业的价格要便宜得多，在可支配收入一定的前提下，消费者们可以为耐用消费品和其他购买项目留出更大的购买力空间）。正因为此，世界最大的零售商沃尔玛，一直迫切的希望开拓中国市场，本周它决定收购中国第二大的零售巨头好又多。随着中国人生活水平的提高和快速的城市化，国际零售商们预测中国的消费者群落将迅猛成长，为此他们争着在中国建立滩头阵地。按现在的趋势发展，以购买力平价计算的中国消费市场规模将在2020年超过美国。
Economists, who tend to be less excitable than retailers, point out that Asian consumption levels are still fairly low. In Asia, household consumption accounts for only around 55% of GDP on average, compared with 71% in America. But it is the pace of the increase in consumer spending as much as its share of GDP that determines overall growth. And the lower consumption's current share of GDP, the more scope there is for it to grow.
相对于零售商们的兴奋，经济学家们颇为冷静，他们指出亚洲的消费水平仍然是相当低的。亚洲的家庭消费平均仅占GDP的55%，而美国为71%，不过经济的全面增长是由由消费增长的速度和占GDP的份额共同决定的。因此，当前的消费比例越低，它的前景就越是光明。
Still, however bouncy Asian consumers are feeling, slowing growth means that America will buy fewer goods from the rest of the world. So the big question is how much the rest of the world depends on exporting to America. And the answer is: less than is generally thought. Smaller Asian economies, notably Taiwan, are heavily export-dependent. But the bulk of growth in China, India and Japan in recent years has been driven by domestic demand .
然而，不管亚洲消费者们多么高兴，不争的事实是美国的经济增长放缓会减少它的全球采购。幸亏世界经济并非像人们所想的那样极度的依赖对美国出口。一些比较小的亚洲经济实体，比如台湾，固然严重依赖对美出口。但中国、印度和日本在近年来的经济繁荣主要依托的是国内需求。
It is true that China runs a large current-account surplus with America and rising net exports have contributed almost two percentage points of China's growth over the past year, but even without that boost, China's GDP growth would still have been an impressive 8.5%. Moreover, America is not the only importer. Indeed, its share of world imports has fallen from 21% to 16% over the past five years— further proof that demand is strong elsewhere. If America imports less, Asia's GDP growth will slow, but by less than doomsters predict.
中国对美国存在巨大的顺差，去年对美国的净出口则为中国的经济增长贡献了两个百分点，这是事实，但即使排除向美国的出口，中国的经济增长率依然达到了惊人的8.5%。更重要的是，美国并非是唯一的进口国。在过去的五年里，美国的进口从占全球进口的21%跌至16%。除了进一步说明世界其他地区的需求增长强劲，这还反映出即便美国减少进口，亚洲的GDP增长减慢的幅度也要小于悲观人士的预测。
Buoyant Asian demand should help keep Europe afloat, too, for European exporters are a lot more dependent on Asia, and a lot less dependent on America, than they used to be. Exports to Asia last year were euro244 billion, euro44 billion higher than in 2001. Those to America were, at euro185 billion ($230 billion), only a little more than they were four years ago.
高涨的亚洲经济还可以维持欧洲的繁荣。这些年来，欧洲向亚洲的出口依赖性不断增长，对美国的则持续下降。去年欧洲向亚洲的出口额为2440亿欧元，比2001年增长了440亿欧元，同期对美国出口的增长额则仅为450亿欧元（从2001年的1850亿欧元增至2005年的2300亿欧元）。
Europe cheers up 欧洲的欢呼
European demand should also do its bit for the world economy. Europe's recovery is not, as is widely held, purely export-driven. Most of the euro area's current growth comes from domestic demand, as spending by firms and households has perked up. Third-quarter GDP figures are likely to show the euroarea economies outpacing America's for a second consecutive quarter. The euro zone has a reasonable amount of spare capacity, which could allow it to grow above trend for a few years. And European consumers have not been as profligate in recent years as American ones, so they have the scope to reduce their saving and spend more. As a result, the euro area is likely to make a bigger contribution to global growth over the next few years than it has of late.
欧洲需求也会对世界经济增长做出自己的贡献。欧洲复苏并非像人们所想的那样完全是由外贸驱动的。近年来欧元区的经济增长主要应归功于国内需求，比如大幅增长的公司购买和家庭消费。欧元区第三季度的GDP增速继上一季度后再次超过美国。更重要的是，欧洲人持有合理的剩余购买能力，这就保证了他们可以在数年里以超出常规的趋势增长。欧洲消费者们这些年来并没有像美国人那样寅吃卯粮，超前消费，所以他们可以减少储蓄，增加消费。这样，在未来，欧元区就可以对世界经济做出比现在多得多的贡献。
Asia's growth has changed the global economy in a lot of ways, mostly for the better. One of them concerns the rest of the world's vulnerability to the vagaries of the American economy. In the past, American recessions meant global recessions. But this time round, even if America drops sharply, the world won't stop.
亚洲的增长已经在很多方面改善了世界经济。其中之一是提高了世界经济对美国经济变化的免疫力。过去，美国的衰退就意味着全球的衰退。但这回，即使美国急刹车，世界经济仍会滚滚向前。翻译 by 橡树岭
The world economy
America drops, Asia shops
美国经济增长难，亚洲消费往上攀
Oct 21th 2006
From The Economist print edition
Thanks to the vigour of Asia's consumers, it is a good time for the American economy to slow
多亏了慷慨的亚洲消费者，走缓的美国经济才没拖世界经济的后腿
IT IS a commonplace that American consumers have kept the world economy spinning. Asians are frugal, Europeans are gloomy, so if Americans do not keep spending as fast as they have been lately, the world economy is in trouble.
人们一直认为，世界经济的繁荣依赖于美国的消费。亚洲人节俭朴素，欧洲人古板守旧，所以如果美国人也不像近来这样热衷于购买，全球经济就要出乱子了。
That view will be tested over the next couple of years as Americans adjust to the end of their housing bonanza. By virtually every measure America 's housing market is in trouble. Home sales and residential construction are tumbling, the overhang of unsold homes has soared and, according to some statistics, house prices have started to slide. And despite the odd bit of good news, such as this week's figures showing that housing starts rose unexpectedly in September and builders' gloom had lifted slightly, the painful truth is that America's housing adjustment probably has a lot further to go.
在未来的几年中，伴随着楼市的冷却，这种观点将遇到挑战。事实上，美国房地产市场已是危机四伏。家庭购买与住宅区的建设止步不前，卖不出去的房子大量积压，一些调查数据还表明，房价开始悄然下跌。虽然市场上还时不时地传出一些好消息，（比如这周的统计数据证实楼市在九月份出人意料的取得了增长，建筑商们的悲观情绪也因此多少的改善了一些），但事实很严峻：美国的楼市调整依然是路漫漫其修远兮。
The effect of that adjustment on Americans' spending has yet to be felt. So far, the housing bust has hit builders most. America's GDP growth slowed to a crawl over the summer as builders cut back. Consumers have barely noticed, mainly because unemployment remains low and tumbling fuel prices have boosted their bank balances and buoyed their spirits. Petrol prices have fallen by almost 30% over the past two months. The strength of consumer spending has led many economists to argue that America is headed for a soft landing. Perhaps, but as the housing bust deepens, even the most spendthrift Americans will keep a tighter grip on their wallets. America may avoid recession, but it won't avoid a slow-down. Will it drag the world economy with it?
调整对消费的影响还不是很显著。目前为止，楼市泡沫的破灭涉及的人群以建筑商为主。由于他们削减开支、撤销项目，美国第二季度的经济增长慢如老牛拖车。不过消费者们很少注意到这些，因为他们关注的失业率一直很低，能源价格的下降也间接的增加了他们的结余，他们感到精神振奋。汽油零售价在过去的两个月里下降了近30%。基于美国消费坚挺，很多经济实体认为美国人在寻求“软着陆”。可能看起来是这样，但随着房地产危机的进一步显现，再富裕的美国人也要精打细算的过日子了。美国人也许能够避免经济衰退，但无法抵制增幅放慢。世界经济增长的节奏会不会因此而被拉慢呢？
The reason it will not is that the common view of the American consumer as the engine of the world economy is flawed. IMF figures show that Asia, not America, has been the main driver of global demand, powering the world economy through its fastest five-year period of growth since the early 1970s. That is not just because Asians are producing so much more, but also because they're buying so much more.Asian consumers are on a spending spree, splashing out on anything from mobile phones to designer clothes.
不会的。因为世界经济的原动力，并非如人们所深信的那样，是美国的消费。IMF的数据表明这一位置已让给了亚洲，自从1970年代以来，特别是经过亚洲国家高速发展的五年后，亚洲正逐渐集聚着全球主要的消费者群落。这不仅是因为“亚洲制造”增长迅速，更多的是因为亚洲人购买的越来越多。亚洲人正享受着一场物质的狂欢，为了购买从手机到名牌服饰的各种商品，他们舍得大把大把地花钱。
They know how to spend 他们懂得如何消费
Asia is the world's fastest-growing consumer market. The IMF forecasts that total household spending there will rise by almost 7% in real terms this year. In comparison, the 3% growth in American consumption looks almost parsimonious. Although America's consumer spending is still larger than the whole of Asia's in current dollars, the growth in Asian spending this year will be half as big again as that in America. Asia's consumer market already exceeds America's if converted at purchasing-power parity (which makes sense, because housing and domestic services are much cheaper in poorer countries, leaving more of a given sum to spend on consumer durables and the like). No wonder Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, is eager to expand in China. This week it agreed to buy the country's secondlargest hypermarket chain. International retailers are battling to get a stake in China as rising living standards and rapid urbanisation create masses of new consumers. On today's trends, the consumer market there, measured in PPP, will overtake America's by 2020.
亚洲是全球增长最快的消费者市场。IMF预测说今年在不动产领域亚洲家庭的消费将增长7%，相比之下，美国的3%就有些寒酸了。尽管美国在以时价计算的消费额上仍领先亚洲，增长额也是亚洲的两倍，但以实际购买力计算的话，亚洲的消费者市场已经超过了美国（这种算法更为合理，因为在穷国，房地产和国内服务业的价格要便宜得多，在可支配收入一定的前提下，消费者们可以为耐用消费品和其他购买项目留出更大的购买力空间）。正因为此，世界最大的零售商沃尔玛，一直迫切的希望开拓中国市场，本周它决定收购中国第二大的零售巨头好又多。随着中国人生活水平的提高和快速的城市化，国际零售商们预测中国的消费者群落将迅猛成长，为此他们争着在中国建立滩头阵地。按现在的趋势发展，以购买力平价计算的中国消费市场规模将在2020年超过美国。
Economists, who tend to be less excitable than retailers, point out that Asian consumption levels are still fairly low. In Asia, household consumption accounts for only around 55% of GDP on average, compared with 71% in America. But it is the pace of the increase in consumer spending as much as its share of GDP that determines overall growth. And the lower consumption's current share of GDP, the more scope there is for it to grow.
相对于零售商们的兴奋，经济学家们颇为冷静，他们指出亚洲的消费水平仍然是相当低的。亚洲的家庭消费平均仅占GDP的55%，而美国为71%，不过经济的全面增长是由由消费增长的速度和占GDP的份额共同决定的。因此，当前的消费比例越低，它的前景就越是光明。
Still, however bouncy Asian consumers are feeling, slowing growth means that America will buy fewer goods from the rest of the world. So the big question is how much the rest of the world depends on exporting to America. And the answer is: less than is generally thought. Smaller Asian economies, notably Taiwan, are heavily export-dependent. But the bulk of growth in China, India and Japan in recent years has been driven by domestic demand .
然而，不管亚洲消费者们多么高兴，不争的事实是美国的经济增长放缓会减少它的全球采购。幸亏世界经济并非像人们所想的那样极度的依赖对美国出口。一些比较小的亚洲经济实体，比如台湾，固然严重依赖对美出口。但中国、印度和日本在近年来的经济繁荣主要依托的是国内需求。
It is true that China runs a large current-account surplus with America and rising net exports have contributed almost two percentage points of China's growth over the past year, but even without that boost, China's GDP growth would still have been an impressive 8.5%. Moreover, America is not the only importer. Indeed, its share of world imports has fallen from 21% to 16% over the past five years— further proof that demand is strong elsewhere. If America imports less, Asia's GDP growth will slow, but by less than doomsters predict.
中国对美国存在巨大的顺差，去年对美国的净出口则为中国的经济增长贡献了两个百分点，这是事实，但即使排除向美国的出口，中国的经济增长率依然达到了惊人的8.5%。更重要的是，美国并非是唯一的进口国。在过去的五年里，美国的进口从占全球进口的21%跌至16%。除了进一步说明世界其他地区的需求增长强劲，这还反映出即便美国减少进口，亚洲的GDP增长减慢的幅度也要小于悲观人士的预测。
Buoyant Asian demand should help keep Europe afloat, too, for European exporters are a lot more dependent on Asia, and a lot less dependent on America, than they used to be. Exports to Asia last year were euro244 billion, euro44 billion higher than in 2001. Those to America were, at euro185 billion ($230 billion), only a little more than they were four years ago.
高涨的亚洲经济还可以维持欧洲的繁荣。这些年来，欧洲向亚洲的出口依赖性不断增长，对美国的则持续下降。去年欧洲向亚洲的出口额为2440亿欧元，比2001年增长了440亿欧元，同期对美国出口的增长额则仅为450亿欧元（从2001年的1850亿欧元增至2005年的2300亿欧元）。
Europe cheers up 欧洲的欢呼
European demand should also do its bit for the world economy. Europe's recovery is not, as is widely held, purely export-driven. Most of the euro area's current growth comes from domestic demand, as spending by firms and households has perked up. Third-quarter GDP figures are likely to show the euroarea economies outpacing America's for a second consecutive quarter. The euro zone has a reasonable amount of spare capacity, which could allow it to grow above trend for a few years. And European consumers have not been as profligate in recent years as American ones, so they have the scope to reduce their saving and spend more. As a result, the euro area is likely to make a bigger contribution to global growth over the next few years than it has of late.
欧洲需求也会对世界经济增长做出自己的贡献。欧洲复苏并非像人们所想的那样完全是由外贸驱动的。近年来欧元区的经济增长主要应归功于国内需求，比如大幅增长的公司购买和家庭消费。欧元区第三季度的GDP增速继上一季度后再次超过美国。更重要的是，欧洲人持有合理的剩余购买能力，这就保证了他们可以在数年里以超出常规的趋势增长。欧洲消费者们这些年来并没有像美国人那样寅吃卯粮，超前消费，所以他们可以减少储蓄，增加消费。这样，在未来，欧元区就可以对世界经济做出比现在多得多的贡献。
Asia's growth has changed the global economy in a lot of ways, mostly for the better. One of them concerns the rest of the world's vulnerability to the vagaries of the American economy. In the past, American recessions meant global recessions. But this time round, even if America drops sharply, the world won't stop.
亚洲的增长已经在很多方面改善了世界经济。其中之一是提高了世界经济对美国经济变化的免疫力。过去，美国的衰退就意味着全球的衰退。但这回，即使美国急刹车，世界经济仍会滚滚向前。翻译 by 橡树岭
Trackback
你可以使用这个链接引用该篇文章 http://publishblog.blogchina.com/blog/tb.b?diaryID=6275367