Who can stop him now?
关键词： Korea，朝鲜North Korea 朝鲜
Who can stop him now? 如今谁能阻止他？
Oct 12th 2006
From The Economist print edition
America, China and Russia must all make sacrifices to stop a nuclear arms race in Asia and the Middle East
美中俄须携起手来，作出牺牲以共同防范在亚洲及中东地区的核竞赛
WITH the possible exception of South Africa, no country that has tested an atomic bomb has given its nuclear weapons up. So no matter what the world now does to punish North Korea for its underground test on October 8th, Kim Jong Il's hermit kingdom is likely to hang grimly on to its bomb. If you are the paranoid dictator of a friendless state that is still technically at war with both South Korea and the United States, a nuclear arsenal is your ultimate insurance policy.
任何已经进行了核爆实验的国家(也许南非是个例外)都不会最终放弃拥有核武器。不论国际社会对10月8日朝方地下核实验采取什么样的制裁措施，金正日的独立王国很可能一意孤行，坚持开发核武器。设想你是一个孤立无援国家的顽固独裁者，同时与韩美两国还在处于技术上的战争状态，核武器的拥有当然将会是你安全的最终保证。
To say this is not to say that North Korea should go unpunished. On the contrary, it must be punished even if the punishment is unlikely to change its ways. That is because other would-be nuclear proliferators, with Iran to the fore, are now watching to see whether it is really as easy as Mr Kim has made it look to go nuclear in defiance not only of the dire warnings of the United States and the United Nations but also of powerful neighbours such as Russia and China.
这么说并不是指朝鲜就不应受到惩罚。相反地，即使不能够阻止他的研制进程，惩罚措施也势在必行。金正日的行为非但藐视美国和联合国的严重警告，更不把它的强大邻国中国和俄国放在眼里。对于以伊朗为首的其他正在研制核武器的国家来说，如果朝方不受到处罚，他们就会更加肆无忌惮。
In New York the UN Security Council denounced the North Korean test. George Bush refuses to take any option off the table, implying a readiness to react with military force. Yet America has few military options. Even without nuclear weapons, Mr Kim in effect holds the South Korean capital, Seoul, hostage: his conventional rockets and artillery could rapidly flatten much of the city, killing tens of thousands. And although the Americans could bomb the North's reactors, they do not seem to know where the regime hides its fissile materials and any bombs it has made from them.
联合国安理会在纽约对朝鲜的核实验进行谴责。乔治·布什也声明可以采取“任何手段”解决问题，暗示将会采取军事行动，但是好像也没什么可操作的方案。即便没有核武器，金正日也可威胁到韩国的安全，只要运用常规武器例如火箭及大炮，就能将韩国首都首尔夷为平地，造成数万人员的伤亡。即便美国能够对朝鲜核反应堆实施空中打击，他们大概也不知道核原料及核弹头藏在何处。
Mr Kim places a bet 金的如意算盘
Hopes of applying tough new pressure on Mr Kim therefore rest mainly on China. The Chinese could, if they wished, starve North Korea's people and switch off its lights. They are also very angry. Having denounced Mr Kim's “brazen” disregard of world opinion, China went on to speak for the first time of the need for (“appropriate”) punitive action . But Mr Kim, for all his megalomania and paranoia, is a shrewd tactician. He has evidently made a bet with himself that for all their huffing and puffing the Chinese will not in the end want to blow his regime down. And he may be right.
看来能够给金正日真正带来压力的看来只有是中国了。中国人，如何他们愿意的话，可以随时让朝鲜人挨饿和切断他的电力供应。如今中国人也很愤怒，谴责朝方无视国际社会的普遍反对，“悍然”实施核试验。中方还首次表示可以采取“适当的”惩罚措施。金正日虽狂妄自大，但也不失狡猾。他算准了中国是虚张声势，还不至于想要推翻他的统治。或许他是对的。
A strategy of sanctions has two weaknesses. One is that Mr Kim, who has already presided nonchalantly over mass starvation inside his country, cares little about the suffering of his own people; he knows that China knows it could cut off his fuel and food and still not force him to give up his bomb. The other is that really harsh sanctions might bring about the sudden collapse of his regime. And however angry China may be about Mr Kim's bomb, it has so far sadly seemed much more anxious to ensure that his regime does not collapse.
采取制裁的战略会产生两个问题。一是朝鲜已是饿莩遍野，民不聊生，金对此熟视无睹。就算中国切断了对他的食品和能源供应，他也不会放弃核研制。这一点，中朝双方都很清楚。另一个问题是严厉的制裁会导致其政权轰然崩溃，虽然中国对金的核试验感到恼火，但当务之急是防止其政权的突然垮台。
Why so? The main threat a North Korean bomb poses to China is indirect: it might persuade Japan to arm itself with nuclear weapons too, though Japan rules this out for now. By contrast, both China and South Korea would face immediate consequences if Mr Kim's regime imploded. Fine if an orderly coup installed a more pliant government, or if (the blithe hope underpinning the South's “sunshine policy”) the North could be guided gradually towards political openness and economic sanity. But a sudden collapse could be highly unpredictable and perhaps violent, spilling millions of desperate refugees into both China and South Korea and lumbering both with the vast, unwanted expense of rescue or reunification.
为什么这么说呢？目前，朝鲜核爆事件对中国潜在的主要威胁是：可能会促使日本同样研制核武器，虽然日本到目前为止来看还无此意向。如果朝鲜内部发生不太激烈的政变，由此产生一个较为温和的新政权，或是在韩国“阳光政策“的感召下，渐渐政治开放和经济复苏，这种情形的出现当然是好。但一旦金政权突然倒塌，后果无法预料，中韩两国将会是直接受害者。有可能的战乱会引发成百万的难民将涌入两国，随后的救援和重建的费用也会是天文数字。
Push harder—but provide an escape route 严厉制裁，但要给其留有一线生机
In 2002 Mr Bush lumped Iraq, North Korea and Iran together in an “axis of evil” and said he would stop them acquiring nuclear weapons. He implied that regime change in Iraq might be followed by regime change in North Korea and Iran. Now one says it has the bomb and the other is ignoring Security Council orders to stop enriching uranium. The anti-proliferation policy Mr Bush put at the forefront of his foreign policy has been a colossal failure. Is there any way to turn it round?
2002年，布什先生将伊拉克，朝鲜和伊朗归为“邪恶轴心”国家，并说会阻止他们拥有核武器。他暗示“今天的伊拉克就是明天的朝鲜和伊朗”。现在的情况却是一个（指朝鲜）已宣称拥有核弹，另一个（指伊朗）不听安理会的命令继续进行铀浓缩计划。布什政府外交政策的核心-----反核扩散----遭到了彻底的失败。有什么可以挽救的方法呢？
Not if the big powers follow Mr Kim's script. He plainly expects them to wax briefly indignant but then shrug their shoulders and learn to live with his bomb, just as they live with those of Israel, India and Pakistan. Mr Kim says it was America's threats that made him seek a deterrent. Some will cite this as proof that a policy of sanctions is self-defeating.
大国们会被金正日牵着鼻子走么？金的如意算盘是大国们仅仅是在虚张声势之后，然后和“金的核计划”和平共处，就如同他们对付以色列，印度和巴基斯坦那样，金还扬言美国的威胁迫使他别无选择，有人就以此论证制裁只会导致失败。
But this is a misunderstanding. Since Iraq, Mr Bush has tried to build coalitions against proliferation. China took the lead in the six-country talks on North Korea; Britain, France and Germany took the lead on Iran. The trouble is that when persuasion has failed the other big powers have refused to apply pressure. China is set on protecting Mr Kim, and both China and Russia are pathetically reluctant to clamp even mild sanctions on a rising, energy-rich power such as Iran.
这种判断当然是错误的。从伊拉克（问题）开始，布什就开始着手建立防扩散的联盟。中国也主导了对朝方的六方会谈。英法德则负责对伊朗（关于核问题）的谈判。问题的关键是当说服无效时，其他大国拒绝配合，采取一致行动进行制裁，对（不听话的国家）施加压力。中国是要保护金正日的，在对于像伊朗，这样正在兴起的石油资源丰富的国家的问题上，中俄出于同情和理解而不愿施加哪怕轻微的制裁。
If the world is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, the Russians and Chinese will have to give up some serious interests in order to cause real pain to proliferators. Good relations with Iran are worth sacrificing for the bigger aim of preventing a chain reaction of proliferation across the Middle East. As for Mr Kim, the moment has come for his neighbours to see the folly of paying for short-term stability by propping up a dictator who has slipped dangerously out of control, and whose nuclear delinquency threatens to spark a much wider nuclear arms race in Asia. That would be in nobody's interest. Both China and South Korea ought now to follow Japan and back tough sanctions even if these do topple the regime. It will fall one day anyway, and this is the time to prepare.
如果国际社会当真要反对核扩散的话，中俄两国就必须放弃一些重要利益，采取必要的行动真正制裁那些制造核扩散的国家。同伊朗亲善与阻止在中东随后可能引发的一连串的核竞赛比较而言，后者看来更为重要。在对待朝鲜的问题上，他的邻邦们做了一件多大的蠢事：为求苟安，他们不惜去扶持一个眼看就要脱离自己掌控的独裁者，而且这个独裁者的核违规行为正预示着一场规模更大的核军备竞赛将在亚洲展开。结果当然是没有赢家。中韩两国必须紧跟日本的脚步，对朝鲜进行严厉的制裁，甚至不惜金政权的垮台。反正总有一天是要倒台的，现在该是作好准备的时候了。
America may need to make sacrifices too. It was not Mr Bush who sent North Korea and Iran on their nuclear trajectories: both started their programmes decades ago. But such regimes need to believe that they can desist and still be safe. Tough sanctions must therefore be coupled with clearer incentives. Mr Bush has already told both governments he has no desire to remove them. If they need stronger guarantees he should give them—in return for a verifiable end to their weapons programmes. It will not be easy for a president who wanted to spread democracy to do this. But that, in an imperfect world, may be the price of preventing dictators from controlling the weapons that could kill millions.
美国也须作出某些妥协。并非布什迫使朝鲜和伊朗走上研制核武器的道路，朝伊两国早在数十年前就开始了核研制。但要使他们确信即使没有核武器，自身的安全也有保障。大棒和胡萝卜的政策就要双管其下。布什已经表示他无意推翻两国政权。如果需要，他还应该给予更多的保证，以换取对他们在核问题的配合。对于这个信奉“传播民主 ”的总统而言，这样做当然是有一定难度的。但在这个还不完美的世界，为了阻止独裁者掌握能够夺取成百万人生命的武器，这样做还是值得的。翻译 by shiyi18
Who can stop him now? 如今谁能阻止他？
Oct 12th 2006
From The Economist print edition
America, China and Russia must all make sacrifices to stop a nuclear arms race in Asia and the Middle East
美中俄须携起手来，作出牺牲以共同防范在亚洲及中东地区的核竞赛
WITH the possible exception of South Africa, no country that has tested an atomic bomb has given its nuclear weapons up. So no matter what the world now does to punish North Korea for its underground test on October 8th, Kim Jong Il's hermit kingdom is likely to hang grimly on to its bomb. If you are the paranoid dictator of a friendless state that is still technically at war with both South Korea and the United States, a nuclear arsenal is your ultimate insurance policy.
任何已经进行了核爆实验的国家(也许南非是个例外)都不会最终放弃拥有核武器。不论国际社会对10月8日朝方地下核实验采取什么样的制裁措施，金正日的独立王国很可能一意孤行，坚持开发核武器。设想你是一个孤立无援国家的顽固独裁者，同时与韩美两国还在处于技术上的战争状态，核武器的拥有当然将会是你安全的最终保证。
To say this is not to say that North Korea should go unpunished. On the contrary, it must be punished even if the punishment is unlikely to change its ways. That is because other would-be nuclear proliferators, with Iran to the fore, are now watching to see whether it is really as easy as Mr Kim has made it look to go nuclear in defiance not only of the dire warnings of the United States and the United Nations but also of powerful neighbours such as Russia and China.
这么说并不是指朝鲜就不应受到惩罚。相反地，即使不能够阻止他的研制进程，惩罚措施也势在必行。金正日的行为非但藐视美国和联合国的严重警告，更不把它的强大邻国中国和俄国放在眼里。对于以伊朗为首的其他正在研制核武器的国家来说，如果朝方不受到处罚，他们就会更加肆无忌惮。
In New York the UN Security Council denounced the North Korean test. George Bush refuses to take any option off the table, implying a readiness to react with military force. Yet America has few military options. Even without nuclear weapons, Mr Kim in effect holds the South Korean capital, Seoul, hostage: his conventional rockets and artillery could rapidly flatten much of the city, killing tens of thousands. And although the Americans could bomb the North's reactors, they do not seem to know where the regime hides its fissile materials and any bombs it has made from them.
联合国安理会在纽约对朝鲜的核实验进行谴责。乔治·布什也声明可以采取“任何手段”解决问题，暗示将会采取军事行动，但是好像也没什么可操作的方案。即便没有核武器，金正日也可威胁到韩国的安全，只要运用常规武器例如火箭及大炮，就能将韩国首都首尔夷为平地，造成数万人员的伤亡。即便美国能够对朝鲜核反应堆实施空中打击，他们大概也不知道核原料及核弹头藏在何处。
Mr Kim places a bet 金的如意算盘
Hopes of applying tough new pressure on Mr Kim therefore rest mainly on China. The Chinese could, if they wished, starve North Korea's people and switch off its lights. They are also very angry. Having denounced Mr Kim's “brazen” disregard of world opinion, China went on to speak for the first time of the need for (“appropriate”) punitive action . But Mr Kim, for all his megalomania and paranoia, is a shrewd tactician. He has evidently made a bet with himself that for all their huffing and puffing the Chinese will not in the end want to blow his regime down. And he may be right.
看来能够给金正日真正带来压力的看来只有是中国了。中国人，如何他们愿意的话，可以随时让朝鲜人挨饿和切断他的电力供应。如今中国人也很愤怒，谴责朝方无视国际社会的普遍反对，“悍然”实施核试验。中方还首次表示可以采取“适当的”惩罚措施。金正日虽狂妄自大，但也不失狡猾。他算准了中国是虚张声势，还不至于想要推翻他的统治。或许他是对的。
A strategy of sanctions has two weaknesses. One is that Mr Kim, who has already presided nonchalantly over mass starvation inside his country, cares little about the suffering of his own people; he knows that China knows it could cut off his fuel and food and still not force him to give up his bomb. The other is that really harsh sanctions might bring about the sudden collapse of his regime. And however angry China may be about Mr Kim's bomb, it has so far sadly seemed much more anxious to ensure that his regime does not collapse.
采取制裁的战略会产生两个问题。一是朝鲜已是饿莩遍野，民不聊生，金对此熟视无睹。就算中国切断了对他的食品和能源供应，他也不会放弃核研制。这一点，中朝双方都很清楚。另一个问题是严厉的制裁会导致其政权轰然崩溃，虽然中国对金的核试验感到恼火，但当务之急是防止其政权的突然垮台。
Why so? The main threat a North Korean bomb poses to China is indirect: it might persuade Japan to arm itself with nuclear weapons too, though Japan rules this out for now. By contrast, both China and South Korea would face immediate consequences if Mr Kim's regime imploded. Fine if an orderly coup installed a more pliant government, or if (the blithe hope underpinning the South's “sunshine policy”) the North could be guided gradually towards political openness and economic sanity. But a sudden collapse could be highly unpredictable and perhaps violent, spilling millions of desperate refugees into both China and South Korea and lumbering both with the vast, unwanted expense of rescue or reunification.
为什么这么说呢？目前，朝鲜核爆事件对中国潜在的主要威胁是：可能会促使日本同样研制核武器，虽然日本到目前为止来看还无此意向。如果朝鲜内部发生不太激烈的政变，由此产生一个较为温和的新政权，或是在韩国“阳光政策“的感召下，渐渐政治开放和经济复苏，这种情形的出现当然是好。但一旦金政权突然倒塌，后果无法预料，中韩两国将会是直接受害者。有可能的战乱会引发成百万的难民将涌入两国，随后的救援和重建的费用也会是天文数字。
Push harder—but provide an escape route 严厉制裁，但要给其留有一线生机
In 2002 Mr Bush lumped Iraq, North Korea and Iran together in an “axis of evil” and said he would stop them acquiring nuclear weapons. He implied that regime change in Iraq might be followed by regime change in North Korea and Iran. Now one says it has the bomb and the other is ignoring Security Council orders to stop enriching uranium. The anti-proliferation policy Mr Bush put at the forefront of his foreign policy has been a colossal failure. Is there any way to turn it round?
2002年，布什先生将伊拉克，朝鲜和伊朗归为“邪恶轴心”国家，并说会阻止他们拥有核武器。他暗示“今天的伊拉克就是明天的朝鲜和伊朗”。现在的情况却是一个（指朝鲜）已宣称拥有核弹，另一个（指伊朗）不听安理会的命令继续进行铀浓缩计划。布什政府外交政策的核心-----反核扩散----遭到了彻底的失败。有什么可以挽救的方法呢？
Not if the big powers follow Mr Kim's script. He plainly expects them to wax briefly indignant but then shrug their shoulders and learn to live with his bomb, just as they live with those of Israel, India and Pakistan. Mr Kim says it was America's threats that made him seek a deterrent. Some will cite this as proof that a policy of sanctions is self-defeating.
大国们会被金正日牵着鼻子走么？金的如意算盘是大国们仅仅是在虚张声势之后，然后和“金的核计划”和平共处，就如同他们对付以色列，印度和巴基斯坦那样，金还扬言美国的威胁迫使他别无选择，有人就以此论证制裁只会导致失败。
But this is a misunderstanding. Since Iraq, Mr Bush has tried to build coalitions against proliferation. China took the lead in the six-country talks on North Korea; Britain, France and Germany took the lead on Iran. The trouble is that when persuasion has failed the other big powers have refused to apply pressure. China is set on protecting Mr Kim, and both China and Russia are pathetically reluctant to clamp even mild sanctions on a rising, energy-rich power such as Iran.
这种判断当然是错误的。从伊拉克（问题）开始，布什就开始着手建立防扩散的联盟。中国也主导了对朝方的六方会谈。英法德则负责对伊朗（关于核问题）的谈判。问题的关键是当说服无效时，其他大国拒绝配合，采取一致行动进行制裁，对（不听话的国家）施加压力。中国是要保护金正日的，在对于像伊朗，这样正在兴起的石油资源丰富的国家的问题上，中俄出于同情和理解而不愿施加哪怕轻微的制裁。
If the world is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, the Russians and Chinese will have to give up some serious interests in order to cause real pain to proliferators. Good relations with Iran are worth sacrificing for the bigger aim of preventing a chain reaction of proliferation across the Middle East. As for Mr Kim, the moment has come for his neighbours to see the folly of paying for short-term stability by propping up a dictator who has slipped dangerously out of control, and whose nuclear delinquency threatens to spark a much wider nuclear arms race in Asia. That would be in nobody's interest. Both China and South Korea ought now to follow Japan and back tough sanctions even if these do topple the regime. It will fall one day anyway, and this is the time to prepare.
如果国际社会当真要反对核扩散的话，中俄两国就必须放弃一些重要利益，采取必要的行动真正制裁那些制造核扩散的国家。同伊朗亲善与阻止在中东随后可能引发的一连串的核竞赛比较而言，后者看来更为重要。在对待朝鲜的问题上，他的邻邦们做了一件多大的蠢事：为求苟安，他们不惜去扶持一个眼看就要脱离自己掌控的独裁者，而且这个独裁者的核违规行为正预示着一场规模更大的核军备竞赛将在亚洲展开。结果当然是没有赢家。中韩两国必须紧跟日本的脚步，对朝鲜进行严厉的制裁，甚至不惜金政权的垮台。反正总有一天是要倒台的，现在该是作好准备的时候了。
America may need to make sacrifices too. It was not Mr Bush who sent North Korea and Iran on their nuclear trajectories: both started their programmes decades ago. But such regimes need to believe that they can desist and still be safe. Tough sanctions must therefore be coupled with clearer incentives. Mr Bush has already told both governments he has no desire to remove them. If they need stronger guarantees he should give them—in return for a verifiable end to their weapons programmes. It will not be easy for a president who wanted to spread democracy to do this. But that, in an imperfect world, may be the price of preventing dictators from controlling the weapons that could kill millions.
美国也须作出某些妥协。并非布什迫使朝鲜和伊朗走上研制核武器的道路，朝伊两国早在数十年前就开始了核研制。但要使他们确信即使没有核武器，自身的安全也有保障。大棒和胡萝卜的政策就要双管其下。布什已经表示他无意推翻两国政权。如果需要，他还应该给予更多的保证，以换取对他们在核问题的配合。对于这个信奉“传播民主 ”的总统而言，这样做当然是有一定难度的。但在这个还不完美的世界，为了阻止独裁者掌握能够夺取成百万人生命的武器，这样做还是值得的。翻译 by shiyi18
Trackback
你可以使用这个链接引用该篇文章 http://publishblog.blogchina.com/blog/tb.b?diaryID=6275382