索马里：寻求和平，远离战争
关键词： 索马里，和平，战争 Somalia:seeking moderates, fearing war索马里：寻求和平，远离战争
What to do about Somalia
如何解决索马里危机？
THE situation may sound familiar. A failed state, where clans and warlords have torn the territory to shreds, is after 15 years of anarchy at last offered the chance of order, unity and stable rule. The problem? The new rulers are gun-toting Islamists who issue and enforce strict religious decrees and who are thought to have links to terrorist groups, perhaps including al-Qaeda. It may sound like Afghanistan under the Taliban. In fact it is Somalia today.
一切听起来都那么熟悉。一个各路部族与军阀纷纷割据一方、国之不国的国家，经过15年的政治混乱后，终于有了实现有序、统一和稳定统治的机会。但麻烦何在？在于那些新的统治者都是些武装的伊斯兰教主义者，他们发布严格的宗教法令并强制实施，他们还被认为同恐怖主义组织——很可能包括“基地”（al-Qaeda）组织——有联系。听上去，它就类似于塔利班统治下的阿富汗，但事实上，这里说的是今日的索马里。
Outsiders face only a few choices in Somalia, none of them particularly appealing. One is to do nothing and let the Islamists try to take over the entire country and rule as they wish. They already control the capital, Mogadishu, and in the past few months have seized most of the centre and south. Another is to intervene, overthrow the Islamists and install a sympathetic government. But that looks a flight of fancy: remember the failure of American troops who tried to deliver aid to Mogadishu in the early 1990s (or, for that matter, the current woes of foreign soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan).
外界认为解决索马里问题有几种方案，但都不怎么样。第一种方案是，完全不干预，任其自由发展，让那些伊斯兰主义者去接管整个国家，按照他们自己的意愿去实施统治。他们已经控制了首都摩加迪沙（Mogadishu），并且就在刚过去的几个月里占领了中部和南部的大部分地盘。另一个选择就是进行干涉，推翻这些伊斯兰教主义者，建立一个合意的政府。不过这看上去就是异想天开：回忆一下美国军队二十世纪九十年代初欲向摩加迪沙提供援助时遭到的失败（或者看看至今仍深陷于伊拉克和阿富汗而痛苦不堪的外国士兵）吧。
A middle path—a half-hearted intervention—would be the worst of all options. Yet this week Ethiopia, the regional power, seemed to be trying just that. On October 9th several hundred Ethiopian troops were reported to be deep inside Somalia, pushing back an Islamist army towards Mogadishu (see page 71). This year America lent clumsy support to Ethiopian-backed Somali groups opposing the Islamists, possibly breaking a UN arms embargo. Stepping in to encourage the fighting, but without acting decisively, merely strengthens extremists over relatively moderate leaders among the Islamists in Mogadishu. A jihadist fringe has been itching for a "holy war", which may mean terrorist attacks, against Ethiopia and other Western allies. This week, in response to Ethiopia's invasion, some Islamists made precisely such a call for jihad.
第三个选择是走中间路线，有限度的干涉索马里内政。看起来不错，中庸之道，实际上可能是最糟的选择。但就在本周，地区强国埃塞俄比亚（Ethiopia）似乎正试图这样做。据报道，10月9日，几百人的埃塞俄比亚部队深入索马里，迫使伊斯兰主义者武装后撤到摩加迪沙（参见71页）。今年，美国向受到埃塞俄比亚支持的索马里派别提供了不适当的援助，这很可能打破联合国对索马里的武器禁运。插手索马里内政，支持内战，却又没有明确的计划，结果在摩加迪沙伊斯兰主义者中，反而加强了极端分子的力量，削弱了相对温和的领导人的影响力。极端的圣战分子一直渴望“圣战”（holy war），这可能意味着针对埃塞俄比亚和其他西方盟国的恐怖袭击。作为对埃塞俄比亚入侵的回应，本周一些伊斯兰教主义者正是以此来呼吁圣战（jihad）。
Worse, Ethiopia's intervention raises the prospect of a wider conflict. Ethiopia is partly motivated by a wish to hit its old foe, Eritrea, which is thought to be supporting and arming the Islamists. The risk of a regional war, fought by proxy inside Somalia, is real. The risk to neighbours is serious too. America is paying to beef up security on Kenya's northern border. Refugees are flowing out of Somalia. The African Union is fretting, with some members even suggesting a peacekeeping force be deployed to Somalia.
更糟的是，埃塞俄比亚的干涉可能引起更广泛的冲突。埃塞俄比亚的部分动机是希望打击其宿敌厄立特里亚（Eritrea），后者被认为支持并武装了伊斯兰教主义者。由索马里国内代理人之间进行的区域战争的风险是真实存在的，对邻国的危险也是严重的。美国正在加强肯尼亚（Kenya）北部边境的安全。难民潮正从索马里涌出。非盟（African Union）为此焦急万分，一些成员国甚至建议向索马里派驻维和部队。
But there is a final option that is still worth considering. There can be no proper government in Somalia without the co-operation of the strongest force, the Islamists. Ethiopia and others may well prefer to see a weak and wretched Somalia rather than a united and Islamist one. They are wrong.
但仍有最后一个选项值得考虑。如果没有同伊斯兰主义者这一索马里最强大势力的合作，任何严格意义上的政府在索马里都是不可能存在的。埃塞俄比亚以及其他国家可能更情愿看到一个虚弱、不幸的索马里，而不是一个团结的、伊斯兰主义的索马里。但他们错了。
The Islamists in Mogadishu are not uniformly extreme. The comparison to the Taliban, though superficially attractive, is somewhat misleading. Some elements are abhorrent, ordering rough justice, summary execution of criminals and issuing severe religious decrees. But for the moment they are a minority. There are also relatively moderate Islamist leaders who could be coaxed by donors such as the European Union to talk about sharing power with the rump of an (Ethiopian-backed) transitional government that controls a part of Somalia near Ethiopia. Peace talks are scheduled for the end of the month, in Sudan. Talking to Islamist rulers may be an unpalatable choice. But it is the least bad one.
摩加迪沙的伊斯兰主义者并非尽是极端派。将之同塔利班相比，尽管颇有吸引力，但多少容易让人误解。其中一些人确实可恨，他们进行粗暴的审判，草率地处决犯人，以及发布严厉的宗教法令。但当下他们还只是少数。还存有一些相对温和的伊斯兰领袖，他们可以在如欧盟（European Union）这样的捐助者的劝诱下，同控有部分靠近埃塞俄比亚的索马里领土的（受到埃塞俄比亚支持的）过渡政府商讨分享政权。和平谈判已经安排月末在苏丹举行。同伊斯兰教主义者的对话可能是一个并不愉快的选择，但也是最不坏的一个。翻译 by witt
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