朝鲜 -- The nightmare comes to pass
关键词： 朝鲜，North KoreaOct 12th 2006 | BEIJING, SEOUL AND TOKYO 2006年10月12日 | 北京、首尔、东京
From The Economist print edition 来自《经济学人》印刷版
Now that North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, can anything be done to punish it? Or would the collapse of the regime be even more dangerous?
鉴于朝鲜完成了所谓的核试验，是否能采取什么措施对其惩罚？抑或金正日政权的崩溃会使朝鲜更加危险？
THE reaction was swift, furious and unanimous. North Korea's (claimed) nuclear test on October 9th was “brazen”, said the Chinese government—unusually harsh words from North Korea's biggest provider of aid, and its only friend. “Unacceptable” and “provocative”, said President George Bush. He had talked to the leaders of Russia, China, South Korea and Japan; all had agreed that an “immediate response” was called for.
各国对朝鲜核试验的反应是迅速、激烈及明确的。中国政府表示，朝鲜10月9日（宣称的）核试验“悍然进行”，这是来自朝鲜最大援助者及其唯一朋友不寻常的严厉措词。布什总统称其“不可接受”且“意在挑衅”，并已与俄、中、韩、日的领导人沟通；大家一致同意“即时回应”势在必行。
But what? The cries of outrage were followed by humming and shuffling—except in Japan, which almost immediately cut off trade. America's secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, having stressed there would be no attack on Pyongyang, added that the North Koreans would now face sanctions “unlike anything they have faced before”. But might a more isolated North Korea behave even more badly? Or might sanctions trigger its collapse, bringing a flood of refugees and unleashing nuclear mayhem?
但实际的情况呢？除了日本几乎立即切断与朝鲜的贸易联系之外，其他国家发出的愤慨音量不高且态度暧昧。美国国务卿赖斯强调不会对平壤实施军事打击，补充说，朝鲜将要面临的制裁“不同于以前受到过的”。但是，更加被孤立的朝鲜会不会破罐破摔？抑或制裁是否可能引发金正日政权崩溃，引发难民潮及发动对周边国家的核打击？
On October 11th the UN Security Council was still discussing what sanctions to impose. America wants international inspections of all cargo moving in or out of North Korea, and the freezing of North Korean assets linked to illicit activities. China, while anxious to exclude any threat of military force and keen to limit the scope of sanctions, showed unusual willingness to talk about such things. It may even scrap a “treaty of friendship” signed with North Korea in 1961, which commits China to defending North Korea if it is attacked.
联合国安理会10月11日仍在磋商实施什么样的制裁措施。美国希望对进出朝鲜的所有物资进行国际检查，并冻结与违禁活动有关的朝鲜资产。中国在讨论这一系列提议时显示的欣然态度很不寻常，与此同时，中方急盼排除对朝鲜的军事威胁，很希望限制制裁范围。中国甚至可能废弃1961年与朝鲜签订的《友好条约》，根据条约，朝鲜遭到打击时，中国有义务提供保护。
Exactly what happened at the underground site about 110km (70 miles) from the Chinese border at 10.36am local time on Monday remains unclear. Experts believe that, for a nuclear explosion, it was unusually small. But whether or not it was as successful as claimed, the timing of the blast annoyed China intensely. Hu Jintao, its president, had only just agreed with Shinzo Abe, Japan's new leader—at the first summit between the two countries for five prickly years—that a North Korean nuclear test would be “unacceptable”. Mr Abe's prescient summitry has gained him much respect in the region and at home, but China has been caught on the back foot.
距离中国边界110公里（70英里）的地下某处，在当地时间周一早上10：36发生了什么，确切的事实尚不清楚。专家确信，作为核爆，其规模小得很。但是否如朝鲜宣称的那般成功，爆炸的时间点令中方尤为困扰。荆棘五年之后，中日两国元首峰会举行了，国家主席胡锦涛刚刚才与日本新首相安倍晋三达成共识，即朝鲜核试验是“不可接受的”。安倍首相富有先见之明的最高层级外交为他在东亚地区与日本国内贏得了不少敬意，但朝鲜的背后一脚令中国陷于尴尬之境。
North Korea's only courtesy to its ally was a 20-minute warning of the test. For a country that sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives to help North Korea in the war of 1950-53 and that has been a crucial provider of food and fuel during North Korea's recent years of economic disarray, this was a poke in the eye. China's patient efforts since 2003 to host “six-party talks” on North Korea's nuclear programme with North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia and America—an unusually assertive step by China to solve an international crisis—were shown to be a complete failure.
朝鲜对盟友仅有的礼貌之举是在核试验20分钟前通知中国。对于一个在1950～53年的朝鲜战争中献出了成千上万生命，在朝鲜近年遭遇经济困境，成为其食品与燃料主要供应者的国家而言，这样的做法简直就是对中国的迎面一击。自2003年始，中国耐心的努力，主持了以处理朝鲜核问题为目的，由朝鲜、韩国、日本、俄罗斯、美国及中国共同参加的“六方会谈”，这是中国处理国际危机难得的果断措施，事到如今，所有的努力似乎彻底失败。
But for all its anger, China remains deeply worried about any move that might cause instability in North Korea, with which it shares a 1,400km border. So too does South Korea. Even before the emergence of a nuclear threat, South Korea still faced a 1.1m-strong North Korean army, most of which is deployed close to the south and which, with artillery shells and conventional missiles, could quickly devastate Seoul, the capital. It also faces, in North Korea, the world's largest active chemical and biological armoury.
虽然中国愤怒，但依然对于任何可能导致朝鲜不稳定的举措深感忧虑，朝鲜与中国接壤1400公里。韩国也有同样的担心。在核威胁出现之前，韩国也要面对多于一百一十万的朝鲜军队，朝鲜军队的大部分部署在离韩国很近的地方，并有装备有火炮与传统导弹，可以将韩国的首都首尔迅速毁灭。韩国同样要面对的，是朝鲜拥有的，世界上最大的现役生化部队。
Much as it resents the behaviour of North Korea's Kim Jong Il, China is not pushing for regime change. Jasper Becker, the author of a recent book on North Korea, claims that China made contingency plans for a possible invasion of North Korea three years ago when it worried that America might launch a strike against North Korea's nuclear facilities. The aim would have been to install a pro-China government that would forsake nuclear weapons. But Mr Becker says China's military chiefs concluded it could not be done.
虽然中国对于朝鲜金正日的所作所为非常愤恨，但并不寻求其政权改变。最近出了一本写朝鲜的书，该书作者Jasper Becker称，中国在三年前曾有因应朝鲜遭受侵略的临时计划，当时，中国担心美国会对朝鲜发动打击以摧毁其核设施。中国的目标是促使朝鲜有一个能够放弃以拥有核武器为目标的亲中国政府。但Becker先生提到，中国的军事首脑们断定这样的目标无法达成。
China is not at all convinced that an escalation of sanctions would help either. Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University says this could simply provoke an embattled North Korea into conducting more tests in order to perfect its nuclear deterrent. He says it is in China's interests to have a government in North Korea that is hostile to America: this reduces America's flexibility in any military response to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. In Mr Yan's view, China's outrage at North Korea's test is similar to that of France and Germany over America's invasion of Iraq in 2003. Although it strained relations, “they are still allies.”
根本无法说服中国相信制裁升级对各方都有利。清华大学的阎学通认为，这么做只会激发摆出阵势的朝鲜进行更多的“核试验”来完善其核威慑力量。他说，基于中国的国家利益，朝鲜要有一个与美国敌对的政府：这样就可以在台海出现危机时减少美国任何军事反应的机动性。在阎学通看来，中国对朝鲜核试的义愤类似于2003年法德对美国入侵伊拉克所表达的不满。尽管这么做使关系紧张，但“他们仍然是盟友。”
If Kim falls 如果金正日倒台
In discussions with America about how to handle North Korea, China has emphasised that talk of regime change is taboo. If word of such a conversation were to leak to the North Koreans, it fears, this would destroy whatever trust they have in China and any chance of a negotiated settlement.
在与美国讨论如何处理朝鲜时，中国强调，谈论更换该政权是禁忌。中国担心，如果这样的谈话内容有只言片语泄漏给朝鲜，不但会将朝鲜对于中国尚存的信任摧毁，也将使任何谈判解决问题的机会化为泡影。
But whether or not the sanctions under discussion are intended to bring Mr Kim down, his regime might collapse anyway. Without reliable statistics it is hard to be certain; but it seems that though North Korea has recovered somewhat from a tailspin in the 1990s, including a famine that killed as many as 3m people, it is still growing at a snail's pace. Much of its industry remains in tatters. The International Crisis Group, an NGO, says in a new report that North Korea's food supplies are stable now because of a decent harvest last year, despite floods this summer that destroyed crops and killed several hundred people. But it stresses that the country is unlikely to be self-sufficient in grain for the foreseeable future, and that the risk of food shortages is growing—not least because food aid, fully half of which comes in from China and South Korea, may now dwindle. An economic collapse could create instability, even civil war, for which none of the powers involved is prepared. South Korea, in particular, dreads the cost of rebuilding the North.
但不论在讨论中的制裁方案是否意在使金正日倒台，他的政权可能都要崩溃。没有可靠的数据，这样的判断还很难下定论；但表面上看起来，经历了上世纪90年代的混乱，包括一次使多达三百万人丧生的饥荒，朝鲜虽有某种程度的恢复，但其成长速度依然缓如蜗牛。朝鲜的多数实业依然支离破碎。一个名为“国际危机团”（ The International Crisis Group）的非政府组织在一份新报告中说，虽然今年夏天的洪水毁坏了农作物，水患也导致几百人死亡，由于去年还算不错的农业收成，朝鲜的食品供给目前尚属稳定。但该组织也强调，在可预见的未来，朝鲜的粮食不太可能自给自足，食品短缺的危机在成长——因为在给予朝鲜并不少的食品援助中，足足一半来自中国与韩国，现在可能也要打折扣了。经济崩溃会制造动荡，甚至内战，没有一个可能受到牵连的国家对这样的可能状况作好准备。尤其是韩国，对于重建北方的花销心存畏惧。
China and America have shown no sign of talking, let alone agreeing, on how to handle a collapse of the regime. China might decide to send troops across the border, in order to staunch a refugee exodus on North Korea's territory rather than its own. It might even want to take full control of the North. But how this would be co-ordinated with any plans by South Korea and America to intervene has not been worked out. Rival foreign armies might find themselves in conflict. Ralph Cossa, of the Pacific Forum of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says the Americans would probably prefer to stand back and let South Korean forces cross the border. Others say that the Americans expect to be first across, and with very messy fighting and humanitarian work to do.
且不说达成一致，中国与美国并没有讨论如何处理金正日政权崩溃的迹象。中国有可能决定派军队越过边界，阻止难民潮，将其控制在朝鲜境内，而不是等难民越境进入中国了再采取措施。中国甚至也可能想全面控制朝鲜。但这么做如何与任何美韩的干涉计划配合尚未详细规划。相互竞争的外国军队可能在冲突中找到他们的一席之地。“战略与国际研究中心太平洋论坛”的Ralph Cossa说，美国将很可能宁可靠后站，让韩国军队跨越边境进入朝鲜。有其他人认为美国期望身先士卒越境，为非常难摆平的冲突善后，还要担负人道主义工作。
Pushing for regime change is still better than accepting North Korea as a nuclear power, in Mr Cossa's view. In addition to cutting off oil supplies and food aid, other than contributions through the World Food Programme (WFP), China should open its borders to North Korean refugees. The resulting exodus, he says, would prompt “serious thinking” in Pyongyang.
Cossa先生认为，促使朝鲜政权更迭仍然是个比接受其成为一个核国家更好的选择。不同于世界食品援助计划（World Food Programme (WFP)）做出的贡献，切断对朝鲜的石油供应与食品援助，中国该对朝鲜的难民敞开大门。他说，如果最后会以难民涌出国门告终，将促使平壤方面“严肃思考“。
China, however, would not think much of this plan. In recent years it has struggled to deter famished North Koreans from venturing across the border. Those found are sent back to North Korea, where they are often imprisoned or even executed. A few have succeeded in getting into foreign diplomatic missions, which have arranged with China for their safe passage to other countries. But in recent years China has set more armed guards and barbed wire around embassies and consulates to stop such attempts.
然而中国将不会考虑这一计划。近些年，中国一直设法防止饥肠辘辘的朝鲜人冒险越境进入中国。一旦发现就会被遣返朝鲜，这些人回到朝鲜常常被下狱，甚至处死。一些人成功进入外国驻中国大使馆，这些大使馆就会与中方安排安全通道将他们送往其他国家。但近些年，中国给各国使领馆加派了荷枪实弹的维安人员，在使领馆加绕了有刺铁丝，意在阻止那些朝鲜人的铤而走险。
Apart from not wanting to irritate North Korea, with which it has an agreement to repatriate refugees, China fears that a flood of desperate North Korean asylum-seekers would destabilise its north-eastern provinces. Widespread lay-offs from state-owned enterprises have already caused dissension there. Perhaps 50,000-300,000 North Koreans are hiding in north-eastern China, a number that would surge massively if the border were opened. China fears that a big increase in the number of ethnic Koreans in the border region could, in the long run, raise demands there for secession from China and integration into a united Korea.
除了不想刺激与中国有协定遣返难民的朝鲜，中国担心走头无路的朝鲜人潮水般涌入，这些寻求庇护者会使中国的东北各省不稳定。国企的下岗工人到处都是，已经使那儿纷纷扰扰。可能有5万～30万的朝鲜人正藏身中国东北，如果边界开放，这一数字势必大规模高涨。中国担忧边境地区朝鲜族人的大量增加，长远来看，会使该地区从中国分离出去的要求升高，进而结合入一个统一的朝鲜半岛。
An ancient grievance 古已有之的芥蒂
Although China's ties with South Korea have rapidly improved in recent years, with South Korea now accounting for more than 8.5% of foreign direct investment in China in non-financial sectors (just behind Japan), China worries that a united Korea would be awkward to deal with. Already in South Korea, despite the two countries' often similar feelings about North Korea, anti-Chinese sentiment is easily aroused. In 1895 China lost a war with Japan for control of Korea, which had been under China's sway. Many Koreans suspect that China wants to dominate the peninsula again, as a useful buffer against a more assertive Japan.
虽然近年来中国与韩国之间的联系进展迅速，如今，韩国在中国非金融领域的外国直接投资中占了超过8.5％（仅次于日本），中国担心一个统一的韩国会棘手得难以对付。尽管中韩两国对于朝鲜常有相似的感受，但在韩国，反对中国的情绪已经很容易被激起。在1895年的中日甲午战争，中国战败，失去了对朝鲜半岛的控制权，而朝鲜半岛原本一直受中国支配。许多韩国人怀疑中国想重新支配朝鲜半岛，使之成为有效的缓冲地带，以阻挡对半岛更有野心的日本。
South Koreans have been outraged by China's efforts to portray the ancient kingdom of Kogoryo, which Koreans see as a forerunner of their modern state, as Chinese. Kogoryo stretched from north-east China to North Korea, prompting some to speculate that China's claim to it presages designs on the northern part of the peninsula. South Korea's president, Roh Moo-hyun, is due to visit Beijing on October 13th. Ancient history is on his agenda.
中国描述古高句丽王国的努力已经对韩国人造成伤害，韩国人将高句丽王国视为其现代国家的前身，中国人亦然。高句丽自中国东北扩张至北朝鲜，这一事实促使一些人推想，中国声明在先，是否预示着中国对半岛北部有所企图。韩国总统卢武铉定于10月13日访问北京。这一段古代史也在他的议事日程上。
South Korea would agree with China, however, that wide-ranging economic sanctions against the North would not be helpful. In July China agreed for the first time to sanctions by accepting a UN resolution that condemned North Korea's missile tests that month and called for a halt to any trade with the North in missile technology. Earlier this year, the state-owned Bank of China froze North Korean assets in its Macau branch in response to an American initiative to clamp down on North Korea's use of foreign bank accounts to launder illicit money. And although China is secretive about its food aid to North Korea, WFP officials believe shipments have fallen sharply this year. South Korea suspended its direct food aid to the North after the missile tests.
不过，韩国将与中国达成共识，即对朝鲜大范围的经济制裁将无助于解决问题。中国在7月首次赞成对朝制裁，接受联合国的解决方案，谴责朝鲜那个月的导弹试射，要求停止与朝鲜在导弹技术方面的任何交易行为。今年稍早，中国响应美国提出的取缔朝鲜利用外国帐户非法洗钱的倡仪，国有的中国银行冻结了朝鲜在澳门分行的资产。虽然中国对其给予朝鲜的食品援助守口如瓶，但WFP官员确信，今年的货物输送量已经锐减。韩国于朝鲜导弹试射之后中止了对其食品的直接援助。
But China and South Korea have other economic interests in North Korea that have been expanding even as the nuclear dispute has continued to worsen. Chinese companies have been hungrily eyeing North Korea's mineral reserves, from iron ore to coal and gold. With its mining sector hampered by outdated technology and poor infrastructure, North Korea has welcomed approaches by Chinese companies hungry for resources to feed China's industrial boom. Details are difficult to obtain. But Chinese media said last year that Chinese state-owned companies were proposing to invest more than $880m in North Korea's Musan iron-ore mine near the Chinese border. The South Koreans too have shown little inclination to sever their economic interests. Business has continued at its showcase projects with the North, the Kaesong economic zone—where workers hand-picked by the North Koreans work for South Korean enterprises—and the Mount Kumgang tourist enclave, both cash cows for the Kim regime.
但是，甚至在核问题的争论持续恶化的情况下，中国与韩国在朝鲜还有其他一直在扩张的经济利益。中国的公司对朝鲜埋藏着的矿物资源望眼欲穿，这些矿藏从铁矿到煤矿及金矿。朝鲜采矿业因其过时的技术与落后的基础设施而裹足不前，朝鲜欢迎中国的公司的投资，开采出的矿藏为中国的工业高速发展提供能量。投资的细节内容只能求教于当事双方。但在去年，中国的媒体称中国国有公司打算投资朝鲜的茂山铁矿，此处临近中国边界，计划投资额超过8.8亿美元。韩国也没显出任何要与朝鲜断绝经济利益的倾向。与朝鲜橱窗式的商业项目继续推进，开城经济特区——精挑细选出的朝鲜劳工在这里为韩国企业工作——和金刚山的旅游专区，两者都是金正日政权的摇钱树。
Seoul's sunshine, Tokyo's toughness 首尔的“阳光”，东京的强硬
Mr Roh acknowledged after the test that the South's “sunshine policy” towards North Korea was coming unstuck. His country's efforts to engage North Korea had been intended to change the North's behaviour, but an increasing number of South Koreans see little to show for it. Mr Roh is coming under pressure to suspend the Kaesong and Kumgang ventures. But he will think hard before doing so, for fear that this would raise tensions further.
朝鲜导弹试射之后，卢武铉总统表示韩国对朝鲜实施的“阳光政策”仍然畅行无阻。韩国约束朝鲜的努力意在改变朝鲜的行事方式，但越来越多的韩国人看不到这一政策显示的效果。卢武铉也面对着要求其中止对开城及金刚山投资的压力。但他在这么做之前要作激烈的思想斗争，担心这么做会进一步加剧双方的紧张关系。
Japan is far more willing to get tough. On October 11th it imposed its own extra sanctions, banning North Korean ships from its ports and cutting off all North Korean imports. Before this, it was North Korea's third-largest trading partner.
日本则更愿意使用强硬手段。日本在10月11日就实施了他们的附加制裁措施，禁止朝鲜船舶进入日本港口并阻止所有朝鲜人入境。在此之前，日本是朝鲜的第三大贸易伙伴。
Much more can be done, the Japanese believe, to stop Mr Kim's flow of cash, notably in China. Mr Kim chiefly makes his money from a shadowy network of enterprises known as Division 39. Some of the group's businesses appear to be legitimate. It is the biggest exporter of ginseng and the pine mushrooms (often picked by prisoners) that are an autumn delicacy in Japan, and it has interests in seafood and metals. But it also engages in drug smuggling, counterfeiting and arms sales. The proceeds from these rackets are spread around the regime, particularly the army, to cement its support for Mr Kim's leadership. This explains why North Korea has reacted so shrilly to America's moves against the North's banking assets in Macau.
日本相信还可以采取很多措施来阻断金正日政权的现金流，特别是在中国。金正日主要通过一个叫做“39司”（Division 39）的秘密企业网络赚钱。该集团的一些生意显得正大光明。那是一个人参与松菇（常常由犯人采集）的最大出口商，在日本，人参与松菇是秋季的美味，该企业在海味与金属行业亦有获利。但这一集团也参与毒品走私、制假及军火交易。这些买卖获利之后，朝鲜全国皆分其利，军队尤为突出，如此以巩固军方对金正日领导地位的支持。这样就解释了为什么美国对朝鲜在澳门的资产动手时朝鲜的反应如此歇斯底里。
Japan has at least declared categorically that North Korea's test will not prompt it to pursue its own nuclear programme. This means that one of China's biggest concerns has, for the moment, abated. China is also doubtless relieved that Mr Bush, in his statement on the test, sounded more anxious about nuclear technology seeping from North Korea (a “grave threat” to America) than he was about the test itself.
至少日本明确宣布朝鲜的核试验不会促使其追求自己的核计划。这意味着中国最大的担心之一，就目前而言，减轻了。布什总统对于朝鲜核试验的声明无疑也使中国感到宽慰，布什的声明听起来，忧心核技术从朝鲜泄漏出去（对美国的“重大威胁”）甚于核试验本身。
But the United States and most regional powers do not yet see eye to eye. Christopher Hill, the chief negotiator on North Korea, said before the test that America was “not going to live with a nuclear North Korea”. North Korea's northern and southern neighbours feel they simply have to.
但是美国与大多数东亚国家的意见并不一致。美国的朝核问题首席谈判代表希尔在朝鲜核试验之前就说，美国“不打算与拥有核武器的朝鲜共存”。朝鲜的北方与南方的邻国觉得他们只是不得不与朝鲜共存，不论其是否拥有核武器。翻译 by 福建李菁
From The Economist print edition 来自《经济学人》印刷版
Now that North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, can anything be done to punish it? Or would the collapse of the regime be even more dangerous?
鉴于朝鲜完成了所谓的核试验，是否能采取什么措施对其惩罚？抑或金正日政权的崩溃会使朝鲜更加危险？
THE reaction was swift, furious and unanimous. North Korea's (claimed) nuclear test on October 9th was “brazen”, said the Chinese government—unusually harsh words from North Korea's biggest provider of aid, and its only friend. “Unacceptable” and “provocative”, said President George Bush. He had talked to the leaders of Russia, China, South Korea and Japan; all had agreed that an “immediate response” was called for.
各国对朝鲜核试验的反应是迅速、激烈及明确的。中国政府表示，朝鲜10月9日（宣称的）核试验“悍然进行”，这是来自朝鲜最大援助者及其唯一朋友不寻常的严厉措词。布什总统称其“不可接受”且“意在挑衅”，并已与俄、中、韩、日的领导人沟通；大家一致同意“即时回应”势在必行。
But what? The cries of outrage were followed by humming and shuffling—except in Japan, which almost immediately cut off trade. America's secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, having stressed there would be no attack on Pyongyang, added that the North Koreans would now face sanctions “unlike anything they have faced before”. But might a more isolated North Korea behave even more badly? Or might sanctions trigger its collapse, bringing a flood of refugees and unleashing nuclear mayhem?
但实际的情况呢？除了日本几乎立即切断与朝鲜的贸易联系之外，其他国家发出的愤慨音量不高且态度暧昧。美国国务卿赖斯强调不会对平壤实施军事打击，补充说，朝鲜将要面临的制裁“不同于以前受到过的”。但是，更加被孤立的朝鲜会不会破罐破摔？抑或制裁是否可能引发金正日政权崩溃，引发难民潮及发动对周边国家的核打击？
On October 11th the UN Security Council was still discussing what sanctions to impose. America wants international inspections of all cargo moving in or out of North Korea, and the freezing of North Korean assets linked to illicit activities. China, while anxious to exclude any threat of military force and keen to limit the scope of sanctions, showed unusual willingness to talk about such things. It may even scrap a “treaty of friendship” signed with North Korea in 1961, which commits China to defending North Korea if it is attacked.
联合国安理会10月11日仍在磋商实施什么样的制裁措施。美国希望对进出朝鲜的所有物资进行国际检查，并冻结与违禁活动有关的朝鲜资产。中国在讨论这一系列提议时显示的欣然态度很不寻常，与此同时，中方急盼排除对朝鲜的军事威胁，很希望限制制裁范围。中国甚至可能废弃1961年与朝鲜签订的《友好条约》，根据条约，朝鲜遭到打击时，中国有义务提供保护。
Exactly what happened at the underground site about 110km (70 miles) from the Chinese border at 10.36am local time on Monday remains unclear. Experts believe that, for a nuclear explosion, it was unusually small. But whether or not it was as successful as claimed, the timing of the blast annoyed China intensely. Hu Jintao, its president, had only just agreed with Shinzo Abe, Japan's new leader—at the first summit between the two countries for five prickly years—that a North Korean nuclear test would be “unacceptable”. Mr Abe's prescient summitry has gained him much respect in the region and at home, but China has been caught on the back foot.
距离中国边界110公里（70英里）的地下某处，在当地时间周一早上10：36发生了什么，确切的事实尚不清楚。专家确信，作为核爆，其规模小得很。但是否如朝鲜宣称的那般成功，爆炸的时间点令中方尤为困扰。荆棘五年之后，中日两国元首峰会举行了，国家主席胡锦涛刚刚才与日本新首相安倍晋三达成共识，即朝鲜核试验是“不可接受的”。安倍首相富有先见之明的最高层级外交为他在东亚地区与日本国内贏得了不少敬意，但朝鲜的背后一脚令中国陷于尴尬之境。
North Korea's only courtesy to its ally was a 20-minute warning of the test. For a country that sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives to help North Korea in the war of 1950-53 and that has been a crucial provider of food and fuel during North Korea's recent years of economic disarray, this was a poke in the eye. China's patient efforts since 2003 to host “six-party talks” on North Korea's nuclear programme with North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia and America—an unusually assertive step by China to solve an international crisis—were shown to be a complete failure.
朝鲜对盟友仅有的礼貌之举是在核试验20分钟前通知中国。对于一个在1950～53年的朝鲜战争中献出了成千上万生命，在朝鲜近年遭遇经济困境，成为其食品与燃料主要供应者的国家而言，这样的做法简直就是对中国的迎面一击。自2003年始，中国耐心的努力，主持了以处理朝鲜核问题为目的，由朝鲜、韩国、日本、俄罗斯、美国及中国共同参加的“六方会谈”，这是中国处理国际危机难得的果断措施，事到如今，所有的努力似乎彻底失败。
But for all its anger, China remains deeply worried about any move that might cause instability in North Korea, with which it shares a 1,400km border. So too does South Korea. Even before the emergence of a nuclear threat, South Korea still faced a 1.1m-strong North Korean army, most of which is deployed close to the south and which, with artillery shells and conventional missiles, could quickly devastate Seoul, the capital. It also faces, in North Korea, the world's largest active chemical and biological armoury.
虽然中国愤怒，但依然对于任何可能导致朝鲜不稳定的举措深感忧虑，朝鲜与中国接壤1400公里。韩国也有同样的担心。在核威胁出现之前，韩国也要面对多于一百一十万的朝鲜军队，朝鲜军队的大部分部署在离韩国很近的地方，并有装备有火炮与传统导弹，可以将韩国的首都首尔迅速毁灭。韩国同样要面对的，是朝鲜拥有的，世界上最大的现役生化部队。
Much as it resents the behaviour of North Korea's Kim Jong Il, China is not pushing for regime change. Jasper Becker, the author of a recent book on North Korea, claims that China made contingency plans for a possible invasion of North Korea three years ago when it worried that America might launch a strike against North Korea's nuclear facilities. The aim would have been to install a pro-China government that would forsake nuclear weapons. But Mr Becker says China's military chiefs concluded it could not be done.
虽然中国对于朝鲜金正日的所作所为非常愤恨，但并不寻求其政权改变。最近出了一本写朝鲜的书，该书作者Jasper Becker称，中国在三年前曾有因应朝鲜遭受侵略的临时计划，当时，中国担心美国会对朝鲜发动打击以摧毁其核设施。中国的目标是促使朝鲜有一个能够放弃以拥有核武器为目标的亲中国政府。但Becker先生提到，中国的军事首脑们断定这样的目标无法达成。
China is not at all convinced that an escalation of sanctions would help either. Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University says this could simply provoke an embattled North Korea into conducting more tests in order to perfect its nuclear deterrent. He says it is in China's interests to have a government in North Korea that is hostile to America: this reduces America's flexibility in any military response to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. In Mr Yan's view, China's outrage at North Korea's test is similar to that of France and Germany over America's invasion of Iraq in 2003. Although it strained relations, “they are still allies.”
根本无法说服中国相信制裁升级对各方都有利。清华大学的阎学通认为，这么做只会激发摆出阵势的朝鲜进行更多的“核试验”来完善其核威慑力量。他说，基于中国的国家利益，朝鲜要有一个与美国敌对的政府：这样就可以在台海出现危机时减少美国任何军事反应的机动性。在阎学通看来，中国对朝鲜核试的义愤类似于2003年法德对美国入侵伊拉克所表达的不满。尽管这么做使关系紧张，但“他们仍然是盟友。”
If Kim falls 如果金正日倒台
In discussions with America about how to handle North Korea, China has emphasised that talk of regime change is taboo. If word of such a conversation were to leak to the North Koreans, it fears, this would destroy whatever trust they have in China and any chance of a negotiated settlement.
在与美国讨论如何处理朝鲜时，中国强调，谈论更换该政权是禁忌。中国担心，如果这样的谈话内容有只言片语泄漏给朝鲜，不但会将朝鲜对于中国尚存的信任摧毁，也将使任何谈判解决问题的机会化为泡影。
But whether or not the sanctions under discussion are intended to bring Mr Kim down, his regime might collapse anyway. Without reliable statistics it is hard to be certain; but it seems that though North Korea has recovered somewhat from a tailspin in the 1990s, including a famine that killed as many as 3m people, it is still growing at a snail's pace. Much of its industry remains in tatters. The International Crisis Group, an NGO, says in a new report that North Korea's food supplies are stable now because of a decent harvest last year, despite floods this summer that destroyed crops and killed several hundred people. But it stresses that the country is unlikely to be self-sufficient in grain for the foreseeable future, and that the risk of food shortages is growing—not least because food aid, fully half of which comes in from China and South Korea, may now dwindle. An economic collapse could create instability, even civil war, for which none of the powers involved is prepared. South Korea, in particular, dreads the cost of rebuilding the North.
但不论在讨论中的制裁方案是否意在使金正日倒台，他的政权可能都要崩溃。没有可靠的数据，这样的判断还很难下定论；但表面上看起来，经历了上世纪90年代的混乱，包括一次使多达三百万人丧生的饥荒，朝鲜虽有某种程度的恢复，但其成长速度依然缓如蜗牛。朝鲜的多数实业依然支离破碎。一个名为“国际危机团”（ The International Crisis Group）的非政府组织在一份新报告中说，虽然今年夏天的洪水毁坏了农作物，水患也导致几百人死亡，由于去年还算不错的农业收成，朝鲜的食品供给目前尚属稳定。但该组织也强调，在可预见的未来，朝鲜的粮食不太可能自给自足，食品短缺的危机在成长——因为在给予朝鲜并不少的食品援助中，足足一半来自中国与韩国，现在可能也要打折扣了。经济崩溃会制造动荡，甚至内战，没有一个可能受到牵连的国家对这样的可能状况作好准备。尤其是韩国，对于重建北方的花销心存畏惧。
China and America have shown no sign of talking, let alone agreeing, on how to handle a collapse of the regime. China might decide to send troops across the border, in order to staunch a refugee exodus on North Korea's territory rather than its own. It might even want to take full control of the North. But how this would be co-ordinated with any plans by South Korea and America to intervene has not been worked out. Rival foreign armies might find themselves in conflict. Ralph Cossa, of the Pacific Forum of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says the Americans would probably prefer to stand back and let South Korean forces cross the border. Others say that the Americans expect to be first across, and with very messy fighting and humanitarian work to do.
且不说达成一致，中国与美国并没有讨论如何处理金正日政权崩溃的迹象。中国有可能决定派军队越过边界，阻止难民潮，将其控制在朝鲜境内，而不是等难民越境进入中国了再采取措施。中国甚至也可能想全面控制朝鲜。但这么做如何与任何美韩的干涉计划配合尚未详细规划。相互竞争的外国军队可能在冲突中找到他们的一席之地。“战略与国际研究中心太平洋论坛”的Ralph Cossa说，美国将很可能宁可靠后站，让韩国军队跨越边境进入朝鲜。有其他人认为美国期望身先士卒越境，为非常难摆平的冲突善后，还要担负人道主义工作。
Pushing for regime change is still better than accepting North Korea as a nuclear power, in Mr Cossa's view. In addition to cutting off oil supplies and food aid, other than contributions through the World Food Programme (WFP), China should open its borders to North Korean refugees. The resulting exodus, he says, would prompt “serious thinking” in Pyongyang.
Cossa先生认为，促使朝鲜政权更迭仍然是个比接受其成为一个核国家更好的选择。不同于世界食品援助计划（World Food Programme (WFP)）做出的贡献，切断对朝鲜的石油供应与食品援助，中国该对朝鲜的难民敞开大门。他说，如果最后会以难民涌出国门告终，将促使平壤方面“严肃思考“。
China, however, would not think much of this plan. In recent years it has struggled to deter famished North Koreans from venturing across the border. Those found are sent back to North Korea, where they are often imprisoned or even executed. A few have succeeded in getting into foreign diplomatic missions, which have arranged with China for their safe passage to other countries. But in recent years China has set more armed guards and barbed wire around embassies and consulates to stop such attempts.
然而中国将不会考虑这一计划。近些年，中国一直设法防止饥肠辘辘的朝鲜人冒险越境进入中国。一旦发现就会被遣返朝鲜，这些人回到朝鲜常常被下狱，甚至处死。一些人成功进入外国驻中国大使馆，这些大使馆就会与中方安排安全通道将他们送往其他国家。但近些年，中国给各国使领馆加派了荷枪实弹的维安人员，在使领馆加绕了有刺铁丝，意在阻止那些朝鲜人的铤而走险。
Apart from not wanting to irritate North Korea, with which it has an agreement to repatriate refugees, China fears that a flood of desperate North Korean asylum-seekers would destabilise its north-eastern provinces. Widespread lay-offs from state-owned enterprises have already caused dissension there. Perhaps 50,000-300,000 North Koreans are hiding in north-eastern China, a number that would surge massively if the border were opened. China fears that a big increase in the number of ethnic Koreans in the border region could, in the long run, raise demands there for secession from China and integration into a united Korea.
除了不想刺激与中国有协定遣返难民的朝鲜，中国担心走头无路的朝鲜人潮水般涌入，这些寻求庇护者会使中国的东北各省不稳定。国企的下岗工人到处都是，已经使那儿纷纷扰扰。可能有5万～30万的朝鲜人正藏身中国东北，如果边界开放，这一数字势必大规模高涨。中国担忧边境地区朝鲜族人的大量增加，长远来看，会使该地区从中国分离出去的要求升高，进而结合入一个统一的朝鲜半岛。
An ancient grievance 古已有之的芥蒂
Although China's ties with South Korea have rapidly improved in recent years, with South Korea now accounting for more than 8.5% of foreign direct investment in China in non-financial sectors (just behind Japan), China worries that a united Korea would be awkward to deal with. Already in South Korea, despite the two countries' often similar feelings about North Korea, anti-Chinese sentiment is easily aroused. In 1895 China lost a war with Japan for control of Korea, which had been under China's sway. Many Koreans suspect that China wants to dominate the peninsula again, as a useful buffer against a more assertive Japan.
虽然近年来中国与韩国之间的联系进展迅速，如今，韩国在中国非金融领域的外国直接投资中占了超过8.5％（仅次于日本），中国担心一个统一的韩国会棘手得难以对付。尽管中韩两国对于朝鲜常有相似的感受，但在韩国，反对中国的情绪已经很容易被激起。在1895年的中日甲午战争，中国战败，失去了对朝鲜半岛的控制权，而朝鲜半岛原本一直受中国支配。许多韩国人怀疑中国想重新支配朝鲜半岛，使之成为有效的缓冲地带，以阻挡对半岛更有野心的日本。
South Koreans have been outraged by China's efforts to portray the ancient kingdom of Kogoryo, which Koreans see as a forerunner of their modern state, as Chinese. Kogoryo stretched from north-east China to North Korea, prompting some to speculate that China's claim to it presages designs on the northern part of the peninsula. South Korea's president, Roh Moo-hyun, is due to visit Beijing on October 13th. Ancient history is on his agenda.
中国描述古高句丽王国的努力已经对韩国人造成伤害，韩国人将高句丽王国视为其现代国家的前身，中国人亦然。高句丽自中国东北扩张至北朝鲜，这一事实促使一些人推想，中国声明在先，是否预示着中国对半岛北部有所企图。韩国总统卢武铉定于10月13日访问北京。这一段古代史也在他的议事日程上。
South Korea would agree with China, however, that wide-ranging economic sanctions against the North would not be helpful. In July China agreed for the first time to sanctions by accepting a UN resolution that condemned North Korea's missile tests that month and called for a halt to any trade with the North in missile technology. Earlier this year, the state-owned Bank of China froze North Korean assets in its Macau branch in response to an American initiative to clamp down on North Korea's use of foreign bank accounts to launder illicit money. And although China is secretive about its food aid to North Korea, WFP officials believe shipments have fallen sharply this year. South Korea suspended its direct food aid to the North after the missile tests.
不过，韩国将与中国达成共识，即对朝鲜大范围的经济制裁将无助于解决问题。中国在7月首次赞成对朝制裁，接受联合国的解决方案，谴责朝鲜那个月的导弹试射，要求停止与朝鲜在导弹技术方面的任何交易行为。今年稍早，中国响应美国提出的取缔朝鲜利用外国帐户非法洗钱的倡仪，国有的中国银行冻结了朝鲜在澳门分行的资产。虽然中国对其给予朝鲜的食品援助守口如瓶，但WFP官员确信，今年的货物输送量已经锐减。韩国于朝鲜导弹试射之后中止了对其食品的直接援助。
But China and South Korea have other economic interests in North Korea that have been expanding even as the nuclear dispute has continued to worsen. Chinese companies have been hungrily eyeing North Korea's mineral reserves, from iron ore to coal and gold. With its mining sector hampered by outdated technology and poor infrastructure, North Korea has welcomed approaches by Chinese companies hungry for resources to feed China's industrial boom. Details are difficult to obtain. But Chinese media said last year that Chinese state-owned companies were proposing to invest more than $880m in North Korea's Musan iron-ore mine near the Chinese border. The South Koreans too have shown little inclination to sever their economic interests. Business has continued at its showcase projects with the North, the Kaesong economic zone—where workers hand-picked by the North Koreans work for South Korean enterprises—and the Mount Kumgang tourist enclave, both cash cows for the Kim regime.
但是，甚至在核问题的争论持续恶化的情况下，中国与韩国在朝鲜还有其他一直在扩张的经济利益。中国的公司对朝鲜埋藏着的矿物资源望眼欲穿，这些矿藏从铁矿到煤矿及金矿。朝鲜采矿业因其过时的技术与落后的基础设施而裹足不前，朝鲜欢迎中国的公司的投资，开采出的矿藏为中国的工业高速发展提供能量。投资的细节内容只能求教于当事双方。但在去年，中国的媒体称中国国有公司打算投资朝鲜的茂山铁矿，此处临近中国边界，计划投资额超过8.8亿美元。韩国也没显出任何要与朝鲜断绝经济利益的倾向。与朝鲜橱窗式的商业项目继续推进，开城经济特区——精挑细选出的朝鲜劳工在这里为韩国企业工作——和金刚山的旅游专区，两者都是金正日政权的摇钱树。
Seoul's sunshine, Tokyo's toughness 首尔的“阳光”，东京的强硬
Mr Roh acknowledged after the test that the South's “sunshine policy” towards North Korea was coming unstuck. His country's efforts to engage North Korea had been intended to change the North's behaviour, but an increasing number of South Koreans see little to show for it. Mr Roh is coming under pressure to suspend the Kaesong and Kumgang ventures. But he will think hard before doing so, for fear that this would raise tensions further.
朝鲜导弹试射之后，卢武铉总统表示韩国对朝鲜实施的“阳光政策”仍然畅行无阻。韩国约束朝鲜的努力意在改变朝鲜的行事方式，但越来越多的韩国人看不到这一政策显示的效果。卢武铉也面对着要求其中止对开城及金刚山投资的压力。但他在这么做之前要作激烈的思想斗争，担心这么做会进一步加剧双方的紧张关系。
Japan is far more willing to get tough. On October 11th it imposed its own extra sanctions, banning North Korean ships from its ports and cutting off all North Korean imports. Before this, it was North Korea's third-largest trading partner.
日本则更愿意使用强硬手段。日本在10月11日就实施了他们的附加制裁措施，禁止朝鲜船舶进入日本港口并阻止所有朝鲜人入境。在此之前，日本是朝鲜的第三大贸易伙伴。
Much more can be done, the Japanese believe, to stop Mr Kim's flow of cash, notably in China. Mr Kim chiefly makes his money from a shadowy network of enterprises known as Division 39. Some of the group's businesses appear to be legitimate. It is the biggest exporter of ginseng and the pine mushrooms (often picked by prisoners) that are an autumn delicacy in Japan, and it has interests in seafood and metals. But it also engages in drug smuggling, counterfeiting and arms sales. The proceeds from these rackets are spread around the regime, particularly the army, to cement its support for Mr Kim's leadership. This explains why North Korea has reacted so shrilly to America's moves against the North's banking assets in Macau.
日本相信还可以采取很多措施来阻断金正日政权的现金流，特别是在中国。金正日主要通过一个叫做“39司”（Division 39）的秘密企业网络赚钱。该集团的一些生意显得正大光明。那是一个人参与松菇（常常由犯人采集）的最大出口商，在日本，人参与松菇是秋季的美味，该企业在海味与金属行业亦有获利。但这一集团也参与毒品走私、制假及军火交易。这些买卖获利之后，朝鲜全国皆分其利，军队尤为突出，如此以巩固军方对金正日领导地位的支持。这样就解释了为什么美国对朝鲜在澳门的资产动手时朝鲜的反应如此歇斯底里。
Japan has at least declared categorically that North Korea's test will not prompt it to pursue its own nuclear programme. This means that one of China's biggest concerns has, for the moment, abated. China is also doubtless relieved that Mr Bush, in his statement on the test, sounded more anxious about nuclear technology seeping from North Korea (a “grave threat” to America) than he was about the test itself.
至少日本明确宣布朝鲜的核试验不会促使其追求自己的核计划。这意味着中国最大的担心之一，就目前而言，减轻了。布什总统对于朝鲜核试验的声明无疑也使中国感到宽慰，布什的声明听起来，忧心核技术从朝鲜泄漏出去（对美国的“重大威胁”）甚于核试验本身。
But the United States and most regional powers do not yet see eye to eye. Christopher Hill, the chief negotiator on North Korea, said before the test that America was “not going to live with a nuclear North Korea”. North Korea's northern and southern neighbours feel they simply have to.
但是美国与大多数东亚国家的意见并不一致。美国的朝核问题首席谈判代表希尔在朝鲜核试验之前就说，美国“不打算与拥有核武器的朝鲜共存”。朝鲜的北方与南方的邻国觉得他们只是不得不与朝鲜共存，不论其是否拥有核武器。翻译 by 福建李菁
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