The cold war in Asia: In dangerous waters
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Special Report
The cold war in Asia
In dangerous waters
亚洲冷战:危机重重
Oct 5th 2006 | BEIJING AND TOKYO
From The Economist print edition
As North Korea unsettles the region again, the prospects for better relations between Japan and China are still bedevilled by history
朝鲜再起波澜，日中邦交改善仍受历史问题困扰
LAST July North Korea fired ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. On October 3rd it announced that it would test a nuclear bomb. Relations between the big powers of north Asia are notoriously bad. But this week also brought a ray of light: Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, declared that his first priority would be to travel to Beijing on October 8th to meet President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, the first formal summit between the two countries in five years. The next day, Mr Abe will attempt the same with South Korea, stopping off in Seoul to meet President Roh Moo-hyun.
7月份，朝鲜向日本海发射弹道导弹；10月3日，他宣称将进行核试验。北亚诸国关系急剧恶化。但是，本周出现了一缕署光：日本新任首相安倍晋三宣布，他将于10月8日访问北京。届时，安倍将与中国国家主席胡锦涛、总理温家宝举行会谈，这是五年来两国间的首次正式峰会。次日，安倍将抵达韩国，他会在汉城与韩国总统卢武铉会晤。
North Korea's defiance makes these delicate missions both more difficult and more necessary. Balances of power and influence in north Asia are shifting in unpredictable ways. Japanese economic supremacy not long ago went unquestioned, backed as it was by Japan's defence alliance with America. Now China's rise, economic and military, poses challenges to both. Japan's economic interdependence with China in deepening, but the two countries are also lining up as strategic rivals. This, as much as anything, fuels the desire in Japan to change the country's pacifist constitution, imposed on it by the Americans after the second world war, in a way that would give Japan a less constrained military force.
朝鲜的挑衅令这些棘手的任务更加困难也更有必要。北亚诸国间的力量平衡正以不可预料的方式发生着剧变。不久前，有日美防御联盟的支持，日本的经济霸主地位无人能撼。而今天，中国经济和军事的崛起对日美都提出了挑战。日中之间的经济依赖日益加深，但同时，两国又是战略竞争对手。这种局面使得日本迫切希望能够修改二战后美国人强加于身的和平宪法，以使其军事力量不再受过多的限制。
The increasing sophistication of South Korea's economy, and its growing links with China, also have consequences for Japan. South Korea, though a military ally of America's, is moving into—or returning to—China's sphere of influence. Japan's territorial disputes with both China and South Korea over the Spratlys are inflamed by the possibility of rich resources around these wretched specks of rock.
另外，随着韩国经济日益成熟，它同中国的联系也越来越紧密，这些都会影响到日本。尽管韩国也是美国的军事盟友，但他正在步入——或者说是重新回到——中国的势力范围。日本同中韩两国关于南沙群岛存在着领土纷争，因为这些小礁群附近可能蕴藏着丰富的资源。
Into this mix, dangerously and unpredictably, comes North Korea. Japan legitimately sees itself as a possible target of North Korean aggression. But though China and South Korea also abhor North Korea's provocations, they are alarmed almost as much by Japan's hawkish response. This summer, before he was prime minister, Mr Abe wondered aloud about launching pre-emptive strikes against North Korea, though Japan lacks the capability to do that yet. In north-east Asia the cold war simmers on.
正是在这样一种复杂情况下，朝鲜又出人意料的插入，局势危机顿生。日本自然地认为自己可能会受到朝鲜的侵犯。但是，中韩两国也讨厌朝鲜的挑衅行为，他们对此的警觉程度与对日本强硬举措的担忧相差无几。今年夏天，在还未担任日本首相之前，安倍就考虑对朝鲜实施先发制人的打击，尽管日本并没有这个能力。在东北亚，冷战正在悄然酝酿。
Japan's troubles with its neighbours are still vexed by past belligerence. In particular, they remember Japan's aggression between 1894, when it first went to war with China, and 1945, its total defeat after the second world war. The leader-to-leader summits that Mr Abe is attempting to revive, after all, were broken off by China and South Korea because of the annual visits that his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, made to Tokyo's Yasukuni shrine.
日本同其邻邦间的恩怨也源于他曾经的好战。邻居们尤其都记得1894--1945年间日本人的侵略行径。1894年，日本首次同中国兵戎相见；1945年，日本在二战中彻底溃败。安倍目前正着力于恢复同中韩之间的高层会晤，由于其前任小泉纯一郎每年都去参拜东京靖国神社，该会晤被中韩两国中止。
This Shinto shrine is a quiet compound, white with cherry blossom in spring, that sits in the heart of the capital's bustle. It was founded, rather like Arlington Cemetery outside Washington, DC, to commemorate those who died in the mid-19th century civil wars that unified the country. Since then, the souls of 2.5m Japanese war dead have been enshrined there. Unlike Arlington, however, 14 top war criminals from the second world war (including Hideki Tojo, the executed wartime leader) were also enshrined in 1978, after Yasukuni's direct links with the state had been severed. An adjacent museum paints Japan's wars between 1931 and 1945, first in China and then across Asia, as the actions of a peace-loving nation liberating the region from Western imperialists.
东京靖国神社位于东京繁华地段，是一个用栅栏围起的安静的院子，每到春天它都会被盛开的樱花渲染成白色。它的建设模仿了位于华盛顿特区外的阿灵顿国家公墓，美国人为了纪念在19世纪中期统一美国的内战中牺牲的士兵而修建了该公墓。自靖国神社建立以来，就有250万日本战死者安放于此。然而，与阿灵顿国家公墓迥然相异，1978年14位二战甲级战犯（包括日军战时头目东条英机）也被供奉于此。与其毗邻的是一个博物馆，它用来粉饰日本在1931--1945年间发动的战争（首先入侵中国，而后波及到全亚洲），它标榜该战争是一个爱好和平民族的举动，将亚洲从西方帝国主义者的统治下解放出来。
In fact about 20m Asians died in these wars. In China alone, perhaps 10m died in scorched-earth campaigns, massacres of civilians and biological warfare—all glossed over by revisionists, and still taught at some schools as merely “The China Incident”. Though most of the 8m visitors a year honour family and friends who died, Yasukuni has a deserved reputation in Asia as the site of an extreme and hardline view of Japan's past and future.
而实际上，在那些战争中却有约2000万亚洲人身亡。仅在中国,就有近1000万人因“三光政策”、平民大屠杀和细菌战而丧命，但修正主义者却皆力掩盖这一史实，仅仅称之为“中国事件”，至今一些学校仍如此教育学生。虽然每年的800万游客多是为缅怀亲友而来，但在亚洲，靖国神社已被视为日本极端主义和强硬主义的象征，因而备受关注。
Mr Koizumi's Yasukuni visits caused protests across China. Yet he is no warmonger. His visits, according to Ian Buruma, the author of several books on Asia, played to a new mood of patriotic populism in a country that sees both China and South Korea as new economic rivals, and that objects to being lectured about ancient guilt by the undemocratic Chinese.
小泉参拜靖国神社引起了中国各地人民的抗议。不过他并不是一个好战分子。伊安•布鲁玛出版了多部有关亚洲的著作，据他看来，日本将中韩视为新经济竞争对手，而且它拒绝被不民主的中国人因其过去罪行而谴责，在这样的国度里，小泉的参拜迎合了一个新的爱国民粹主义潮流。
A sharp taste of the new mood can be found in a private bookshop in Kasumigaseki, in downtown Tokyo. The tiny shop is crammed with bestsellers, some of them thick manga comic books. One of the most popular manga authors is Yoshinori Kobayashi, whose first volume of his series “On War” sold nearly 1m copies. In it, he claimed that Japan's Asian wars were honourable and that Japanese atrocities such as the 1937 Nanjing massacre never happened. His latest book describes how Japan's Class A war criminals were actually victims.
在东京闹市区霞之关的一个私人书店里，这种潮流尤为刺眼。小店里摆满了各种畅销书籍，其中就有厚厚的日本漫画书。小林善纪是最受欢迎的日本漫画家之一，他的连环漫画“战争论”第一卷就卖了近100万册。在这本漫画里，他声称日本发动的亚洲战争是光荣的，且日本人的暴行，如1937年的南京大屠杀纯属子虚乌有。在新近的一本书里他说，日本的甲级战犯其实是战争受害者。
Titles by other authors explain why South Korea is “the nuisance neighbour” with an inferiority complex towards Japan, and why the Chinese are hated around the world: they are self-centred, have boorish manners (spitting, never queuing) and spread disease. In the manga books, the Japanese are usually drawn with blond hair and Caucasian features—a habit that reflects a long-held desire in Japan to identify with the West rather than with Asia. Koreans and Chinese, on the other hand, are depicted as swarthy, brutish and slit-eyed.
其它一些书籍还解释了，为什么韩国是一个“令人讨厌的邻居”及其对日本复杂的自卑心态，为什么在中国人为世人憎恶：他们自私，举止不端（随地吐痰，从不排队）而且传播疾病。在这些漫画书里，日本人通常被描绘为金发碧眼，具有西方白人的特征——这折射出日本长期以来'脱亚入欧'的传统。而韩国人和中国人的形象则是黑皮肤，小眼睛而且粗野不堪。
Yoshiko Nozaki of the State University of New York at Buffalo argues in Japan Focus, an online journal, that the ability of neonationalists to make historical certainties such as the Nanjing massacre sound controversial leads the public to feel that these issues remain unresolved among experts. Certainly, such books are so ubiquitous in Japan that the visitor soon ceases to be shocked. What surprises still is that this particular little bookstore sits on the first floor of Japan's foreign ministry.
纽约州立大学布法罗分校的Yoshiko Nozaki在一份在线杂志《日本聚焦》中指出，新民族主义者们抹煞南京大屠杀等历史真相，这给公众造成一种错觉，认为此类事件尚存争议，专家们对此也无定论。当然，此类书籍在日本随处可见，游客们很快就习以为常了。不过依然令人感到惊讶的是，上述小书店恰恰就座落于日本外交部一楼。
The view from China
中国视点
When Mr Abe arrives at Beijing's Capital Airport on October 8th, few Chinese will be aware that $250m in cheap loans from Japan helped pay for a big expansion of the facility in the 1990s. In China's state-controlled media, Japan is rarely portrayed positively. There is hardly a mention of the tens of billions of dollars-worth of low-interest loans and outright gifts that Japan has given China since the late 1970s—loans that China has thought of as its due as a developing country, and which it does not care to see as atonement for the war. When Japan decided last year to phase out its loan aid to China by 2008, the state media published indignant commentaries describing this as an affront, and only in passing revealed details of Japan's largesse.
当10月8日安倍抵达北京首都国际机场时，鲜有中国人能够意识到日本在1990年代的对华2亿5千万低息贷款，它帮助中国进行了大规模的基础设施建设。在中国官方控制的媒体中，日本的形象多为负面。自1970年代末期以来，日本向中国提供了数百亿美元的低息贷款及公开礼物，但中国媒体对此绝少提及。中国认为，这些贷款是其做为发展中国家的应得之物，而非日本的战争补偿。去年，当日本决定在2008年中止对华贷款援助后，政府媒体发表了愤怒的评论，称其为一种公然的侮辱，但对日本的慷慨赠予却绝口不提。
For the Chinese Communist Party, it is useful to portray Japan as an unrepentant aggressor with dreams of reasserting military dominance over Asia. The party has always sought to assert its legitimacy by representing itself as a bulwark against Japanese hegemony. China's school textbooks are filled with stories of communist heroism in the war, and of Japanese brutality. Since the crushing of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and the collapse of much of the rest of the communist world in the early 1990s, the party has struggled all the harder to justify its grip on power. “Patriotic education”, stressing the party's wartime role and the depravities of the Japanese invaders, has played a central role in this effort.
对中共而言，将日本描绘成一个梦想重新确立其亚洲军事霸主地位的冥顽不化的侵略者形象对其有益。一直以来，中共谋求通过把自己描绘成反对日本霸权的坚强堡垒来确立其合法地位。中国学校的教科书里充斥着抗战时期共产党员的英雄故事及日本人的残暴罪行。自1990年代早期的东欧剧变和镇压1989年以来，中共就竭力证明其掌权的合法性。“爱国主义教育”在其中起到了关键作用，它着重强调了中共的战时领导地位和日本侵略者的残暴。
But Chinese leaders know the dangers of giving nationalism too free a rein. Police stood by as thousands of demonstrators protested outside Japanese diplomatic missions in China in April last year. This, the biggest upsurge of anti-Japanese unrest in years, was sparked by a visit by Mr Koizumi to Yasukuni. But the authorities quickly grew nervous and sent clear signals that the protests must stop. Their worry is that nationalist unrest may turn against the government and undermine China's efforts to convince the rest of the world that its economic rise is unthreatening. Anti-Japanese organisations are closely monitored by the police.
但是中国领导人也深知放任民族主义泛滥的危险。去年四月份，几千民众在日本使馆前抗议示威，当时就有警察在场维持秩序。近年来的这种反日骚动在小泉访华之际达到了高潮。但政府很快就对此深感不安并发出了明确信号，此类抗议必须停止。他们担心，民族主义抗议骚动的矛头会转向政府，会破坏他使世人确信其和平崛起的努力。反日组织遭到了警察的严密监视。
The government also worries about the possible impact on Japanese direct investment, which last year overtook that of South Korea to reach $6.5 billion, more than one-tenth of the total received by China in 2005 according to China's figures. Businesses in China with a share of Japanese investment employ some 9.2m Chinese. Yet Japanese investment rose by nearly 20% last year despite the demonstrations, suggesting continuing confidence among Japanese businessmen in the security of their assets in China. Japanese exports to China increased by a more lacklustre 6.4% compared with the previous year's 27.2%. But public disdain for Japanese products appears to have played little part in this. Growth was strongest in the second half of the year, after the protests.
他还担忧，这可能会影响到日本对华直接投资。根据中国的统计数字，2005年日本直接对华投资占到中国吸纳外资总额的十分之一还多，超越韩国达到了65亿美元。日本在华投资企业雇用了 920万中国员工。尽管去年爆发了反日事件，日本对华投资依然增长了近20%，这表明了日本商人对其在华资产的安全性信心依旧。与前年相比，日本去年对华出口增长率稍显逊色，由27.2%降至6.4%。但中国民众抵制日货的行为对此影响不大。抗议活动结束后，下半年的增长异常强劲。
Consumers certainly make harsh judgments about Japanese products. Since mid-September the Chinese media have railed against SK-II, a Japanese cosmetics brand owned by Procter & Gamble, an American household-goods company, because of traces of heavy metals found in its skincare products. (Procter & Gamble says the cosmetics concerned are safe, meeting standards in Japan.) State-run newspapers have highlighted the Japanese rather than American connections of the products. In Shanghai, angry consumers besieged SK-II counters until police dispersed them. Most Chinese profess contempt for “little Japan”, and young people with no experience of the war often jeer more stridently than their parents. But few appear to let patriotism get in the way of shopping.
消费者无疑会对日货质量要求苛刻。自九月中旬以来，中国媒体纷纷斥责日本化妆品品牌SK-II（美国宝洁公司旗下产品），因为在其护肤类产品中发现了重金属成分（宝洁公司称该化妆品符合日本安全标准，是安全的）。政府报纸在报道时着重强调了该产品的日本背景。在上海，愤怒的消费者冲击了 SK-II柜台，后来警察出面制止驱散了人群。大多数中国人称日本为“小日本”以泄其鄙夷之情，而没有经历过战争的年轻人往往比其父母更加积极的参与反日活动。不过，鲜有人会将爱国主义带到商品消费的轨道上来，日货依然照买不误。
The government's fears of nationalism turning against the party itself may be better founded. The protests last year mainly involved members of the new middle classes whom the party regards as a bulwark of its support, and whose nationalist expectations have to be met. The demonstrations were organised using the internet and mobile phones, apparently spontaneously: a tactic that shocked the authorities, and may well have encouraged their efforts in recent months to clamp down on online dissent.
政府担心民族主义的斗争矛头会转向中共自身是有道理的。去年反日抗议活动的主要参与者是新兴中产阶级阶层，该阶层被中共视为其重要支持力量，认为必须满足他们的民族主义需求。示威活动通过互联网和移动电话自发组织，政府对此深感震惊，也许这更加坚定了他们近几个月以来压制网络异议的决心。
The limits of China's nationalism are suggested by the government's decision to arrange Mr Abe's trip without a public pledge beforehand not to visit the Yasukuni shrine. It is also unlikely to insist that Japan make concessions on the evaluation of its wartime history as a precondition for resuming normal top-level contacts. The Chinese leadership does not want to make specific demands that will be rebuffed by Japan and thus provide an excuse for a fresh round of protests.
安倍在没有事先公开保证不参拜靖国神社的前提下就能够造访中国，这说明了中国民族主义的局限性。而且看起来，政府也不太可能继续坚持目下恢复中日高层会晤所需的先决条件——日本必须在审视其过去战争上做出让步。中国领导层无意对日本提出特殊要求，因为一旦被日方拒绝，这将为国内新一轮反日抗议提供借口。
A problem called North Korea
朝鲜问题
Nor is it likely that China will allow its frosty relationship with Japan to affect its handling of North Korea. In July, China departed from its normal reluctance to censure North Korea by supporting a United Nations Security Council resolution, drafted by Japan, condemning North Korea's missile tests earlier that month. The resolution forbade trade in missile technology with North Korea and called for a halt to missile testing. To encourage China not to veto the resolution, a clause was removed that could have been construed as approving military action against North Korea in the event of its non-compliance. But the Americans and Japanese were delighted that China was willing to make its disapproval so public.
同样，中国也不可能让降至冰点的中日关系影响其处理朝鲜问题。七月份，中国一反常态的支持了谴责朝鲜的联合国安理会决议，该决议由日本提出，旨在谴责朝鲜在该月月初的导弹试射，它禁止同朝鲜进行导弹技术贸易，呼吁朝鲜停止进行导弹试射。为避免中国投否决票，决议废弃了一个条款——若朝鲜一意孤行，可以对其采取军事行动。美日为中国愿意公开表达其对朝鲜的责备而欢欣鼓舞。
Continuing friction between China and Japan could have serious consequences, however, if North Korea decides to conduct a nuclear test. China would then be worried that Japan would respond by developing its own nuclear capability, or by launching pre-emptive strikes against North Korean missile bases. Its hope is that Japan's reaction would be restrained by America, which does not want a nuclear arms race in the region any more than China does. But it is not confident of America's ability to do this.
然而，如果朝鲜决定进行核试验，中日间的持续磨擦可能会酿成严重后果。那样一来，中国将会担心，为应对朝鲜，日本会发展自己的核力量或对朝鲜导弹基地采取先发制人的打击。像中国一样，美国也不希望远东地区出现核军备竞赛。中国希望美国能够限制日本的反应，但是只怕美国有心无力。
China's chief foreign-policy objective in the near term is to avoid confrontation in order to give itself breathing room to focus on the economy and manage wrenching social change. It does not want problems with Japan to escalate. Although little progress has been made in the two countries' discussions about gas extraction in the East China Sea, China has not aggressively pushed its claims to an exclusive economic zone stretching close to Okinawa. It hopes that re-establishing top-level dialogue with Japan will help avoid a crisis if, for example, military vessels should happen to collide in the area.
近期的中国外交主要致力于为其经济发展和处理社会变革营造良好环境。中国并不希望中日间的磨擦升级。尽管两国关于东海油气开采的磋商没有实质性进展，但中国也从未宣布独占延伸至冲绳岛的海洋经济专属区。中国希望重新建立的中日高层对话能够避免类似于由军舰恰巧在该区域相撞而引发的危机
But China's stand-off with America over Taiwan will still overshadow its relationship with Japan. China will continue to brush aside Japan's longstanding complaints about the secretiveness of China's armed forces and the big annual increases in its budget. America has the same complaints, to which China has responded with only a few token gestures. China will continue gearing up its navy for possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait, an area of enormous strategic concern to Japan because it straddles vital shipping lanes.
然而，中美有关台湾问题的博弈仍会影响到中日关系。对日本长期以来有关中国秘密军事力量和逐年增加的军事预算的抱怨，中国将会置之不理。美国对此也颇有微词，但中国也仅做出些象征性姿态回应。为应对潜在的台海冲突，中国仍将继续加大其发展海军力量的步伐。对日本而言，台湾海峡有着非比寻常的战略意义，它是日本船舶运输的咽喉要道。
These preparations, which have intensified since the late 1990s, include the deployment of medium-range missiles capable of hitting Japanese targets—a strategy aimed at deterring Japanese assistance for any American intervention in such a conflict. But China does not appear to have any plans to attack, except in the extremely unlikely event that the island changes its constitution to sever its notional links with the mainland. In the past couple of years, in fact, China has become less belligerent and increasingly confident that a more malleable government, more eager to establish good relations with the mainland, will take power on the island in the next presidential elections in 2008.
中国在1990年代晚期加强了军备力量，这包括部署了能够袭击日本目标的中距离导弹。此举意在震慑日本，一旦台海发生冲突，若日本想为美国的干预提供援助它着实需要思忖一下这些导弹。但中国并未显现出任何攻击的迹象，除非发生特殊事件——台湾为脱离大陆而修宪。实际上，在过去的几年里，中国已没那么穷兵黩武而且愈加相信，一个更加温和的、更愿意同大陆建立良好关系的台湾政府会赢得2008年的总统选举。
China is unlikely either to order any sweeping changes to the anti-Japanese stance of its history textbooks. In Shanghai there has at least been a glimmer of flexibility in the recent publication of a school textbook that reportedly devotes less space than usual to foreign invasions (including Japanese wartime atrocities) and more to the history of positive trends such as technological innovation. But a torrent of online criticism of the book is likely to make the government cautious about spreading its use more widely. When it comes to dealing with anything Japan-related, public opinion counts in China.
中国不太可能彻底改变其历史教科书中的反日立场。不过，至少上海最近出版的教科书有了些许弹性。据报道，与往常相比，该课本压缩了有关外来侵略的内容（包括日本的战争暴行），更多的关注起历史上的积极趋势如技术创新等。但是网络上对此书的如潮恶评可能会令政府谨慎考虑推广此书。在中国，一旦涉及到日本问题，公众舆论起着决定性的作用。
President Hu Jintao is now trying to consolidate his grip on power in the buildup to a crucial five-yearly party congress late next year, at which he hopes to install protégés who will eventually take over from him. As a cautious man, he is unlikely to risk making big adjustments in the months ahead to such a sensitive area of foreign policy as relations with Japan. But if Mr Abe at least stays away from the Yasukuni shrine, Mr Hu will feel that his ostracism of Mr Koizumi has paid off.
胡锦涛试图在明年晚些时候召开的五年一度的中共代表大会上巩固其统治地位，届时，他希望安插最终会接替他的亲信党羽。做为一个审慎之人，在未来的几个月里，胡不太可能会对敏感如中日关系的外交政策做出大幅调整。但是，安倍至少要远离靖国神社，这样胡才会觉得他对小泉的排斥取得了效果。
History lessons
以史为鉴
On his trip to China and South Korea, can Mr Abe give indications of greater sincerity than Mr Koizumi? On foreign policy, the prime minister employs cooler calculations than his predecessor, who seemed too often to operate on an emotional plane. Mr Abe also has impeccable conservative credentials, which inoculate him against charges at home of being soft on China. With his call for more “forward-looking” relations, it is possible that his summitry will be deemed a success by all sides. On the other hand, in the long run both Mr Abe's gut beliefs and his strong sense of being the heir to a political dynasty argue against the kind of frank assessment of Japan's past that the neighbours are calling for.
安倍的中韩之行能否显示出他有着比小泉更大的诚意？在外交事务上，与往往感情用事的小泉相比，安倍更加理性。同时，他在保守派内也声名远扬，这使得他在国内免于被人指责对中国太过软弱。凭借其所倡导的要更多“面向未来”的关系，各方都将安倍此次同中韩的高层会晤视作成功之举。另一方面，从长远来看，安倍的本质信仰和其对做为政治世家继承人的强烈认同感都不会——如其邻邦所愿——令他对日本的过去做出坦诚的评价。
Mr Abe's grandfather was Nobusuke Kishi. As prime minister in 1960 Kishi strengthened Japan's alliance with America, arguing that it was in Japan's national interest to do so. His grandson now forcefully argues that the alliance can be further strengthened only if Japan plays a greater part in its own defence; hence his support for constitutional change. But Mr Abe's beloved grandfather was also a key official in Japan's war efforts. During the 1930s he ran industrial policy in the puppet-state of Manchuria. In the 1940s, as minister for munitions, he oversaw the forced-labour programmes. After the war he was indicted as a Class A war criminal, though never charged.
安倍的外祖父是岸信介。1960年，身为日本首相的岸信介加强了日美联盟，他认为这是基于日本的利益。如今他的外孙强硬的认为，只有日本在本国防务中扮演更重要的角色，联盟才会进一步得到巩固，因此安倍也支持日本修宪。但是安倍亲爱的外公同时也是日本的战时高官。1930年代，岸信介在伪满洲政府主管工业；1940 年代，作为军需次官，他负责强制劳工计划。战后，他作为甲级战犯被起诉，但未被定罪。
Mr Abe, a regular Yasukuni-goer before he became prime minister, has sought to protect his grandfather's name. He does not believe Japan's wartime behaviour to be exceptionally evil. He has questioned the legitimacy of the victors' Tokyo tribunal that judged war criminals, though he will presumably peddle a softer line now that he is prime minister. Yet even if Mr Abe does not visit Yasukuni as prime minister, says Yukio Hatoyama, secretary-general of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, uncertainty about whether he will go or not will still harm Japan's relations with China and South Korea.
安倍努力保护外祖父的声誉，在担任日本首相之前，他也是靖国神社的常客。他不相信日本在战争年代罪恶滔天。尽管由于身为首相大概要努力宣扬温和的方针政策，但他也质疑由战胜者所主持的东京审判的合法性。日本反对党民主党干事长鸠山由纪夫说：即使安倍不以首相身份参拜靖国神社，其是否参拜的不确定性仍会危害日中、日韩关系。
Above all, Mr Abe has hammered home to his people the need for Japan to stand tall. He insists that Japan's young need a patriotic education that leaves out the uncomfortable bits of the past. This may imbue Japan's shiftless youth with manliness, but it is unlikely to ease Japan's relations with its neighbours. There is no getting away from history.
最重要的是，安倍反复向国民们强调日本需要站得更高。他坚持认为日本年轻人需要爱国主义教育，而这会抹去日本的不光彩历史。此举也许会向懦弱的日本年轻人灌输些男子汉气概，但却不大可能对缓解日本同其邻邦的关系有何裨益。历史，无从回避。翻译 by dgrkl
Special Report
The cold war in Asia
In dangerous waters
亚洲冷战:危机重重
Oct 5th 2006 | BEIJING AND TOKYO
From The Economist print edition
As North Korea unsettles the region again, the prospects for better relations between Japan and China are still bedevilled by history
朝鲜再起波澜，日中邦交改善仍受历史问题困扰
LAST July North Korea fired ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. On October 3rd it announced that it would test a nuclear bomb. Relations between the big powers of north Asia are notoriously bad. But this week also brought a ray of light: Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, declared that his first priority would be to travel to Beijing on October 8th to meet President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, the first formal summit between the two countries in five years. The next day, Mr Abe will attempt the same with South Korea, stopping off in Seoul to meet President Roh Moo-hyun.
7月份，朝鲜向日本海发射弹道导弹；10月3日，他宣称将进行核试验。北亚诸国关系急剧恶化。但是，本周出现了一缕署光：日本新任首相安倍晋三宣布，他将于10月8日访问北京。届时，安倍将与中国国家主席胡锦涛、总理温家宝举行会谈，这是五年来两国间的首次正式峰会。次日，安倍将抵达韩国，他会在汉城与韩国总统卢武铉会晤。
North Korea's defiance makes these delicate missions both more difficult and more necessary. Balances of power and influence in north Asia are shifting in unpredictable ways. Japanese economic supremacy not long ago went unquestioned, backed as it was by Japan's defence alliance with America. Now China's rise, economic and military, poses challenges to both. Japan's economic interdependence with China in deepening, but the two countries are also lining up as strategic rivals. This, as much as anything, fuels the desire in Japan to change the country's pacifist constitution, imposed on it by the Americans after the second world war, in a way that would give Japan a less constrained military force.
朝鲜的挑衅令这些棘手的任务更加困难也更有必要。北亚诸国间的力量平衡正以不可预料的方式发生着剧变。不久前，有日美防御联盟的支持，日本的经济霸主地位无人能撼。而今天，中国经济和军事的崛起对日美都提出了挑战。日中之间的经济依赖日益加深，但同时，两国又是战略竞争对手。这种局面使得日本迫切希望能够修改二战后美国人强加于身的和平宪法，以使其军事力量不再受过多的限制。
The increasing sophistication of South Korea's economy, and its growing links with China, also have consequences for Japan. South Korea, though a military ally of America's, is moving into—or returning to—China's sphere of influence. Japan's territorial disputes with both China and South Korea over the Spratlys are inflamed by the possibility of rich resources around these wretched specks of rock.
另外，随着韩国经济日益成熟，它同中国的联系也越来越紧密，这些都会影响到日本。尽管韩国也是美国的军事盟友，但他正在步入——或者说是重新回到——中国的势力范围。日本同中韩两国关于南沙群岛存在着领土纷争，因为这些小礁群附近可能蕴藏着丰富的资源。
Into this mix, dangerously and unpredictably, comes North Korea. Japan legitimately sees itself as a possible target of North Korean aggression. But though China and South Korea also abhor North Korea's provocations, they are alarmed almost as much by Japan's hawkish response. This summer, before he was prime minister, Mr Abe wondered aloud about launching pre-emptive strikes against North Korea, though Japan lacks the capability to do that yet. In north-east Asia the cold war simmers on.
正是在这样一种复杂情况下，朝鲜又出人意料的插入，局势危机顿生。日本自然地认为自己可能会受到朝鲜的侵犯。但是，中韩两国也讨厌朝鲜的挑衅行为，他们对此的警觉程度与对日本强硬举措的担忧相差无几。今年夏天，在还未担任日本首相之前，安倍就考虑对朝鲜实施先发制人的打击，尽管日本并没有这个能力。在东北亚，冷战正在悄然酝酿。
Japan's troubles with its neighbours are still vexed by past belligerence. In particular, they remember Japan's aggression between 1894, when it first went to war with China, and 1945, its total defeat after the second world war. The leader-to-leader summits that Mr Abe is attempting to revive, after all, were broken off by China and South Korea because of the annual visits that his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, made to Tokyo's Yasukuni shrine.
日本同其邻邦间的恩怨也源于他曾经的好战。邻居们尤其都记得1894--1945年间日本人的侵略行径。1894年，日本首次同中国兵戎相见；1945年，日本在二战中彻底溃败。安倍目前正着力于恢复同中韩之间的高层会晤，由于其前任小泉纯一郎每年都去参拜东京靖国神社，该会晤被中韩两国中止。
This Shinto shrine is a quiet compound, white with cherry blossom in spring, that sits in the heart of the capital's bustle. It was founded, rather like Arlington Cemetery outside Washington, DC, to commemorate those who died in the mid-19th century civil wars that unified the country. Since then, the souls of 2.5m Japanese war dead have been enshrined there. Unlike Arlington, however, 14 top war criminals from the second world war (including Hideki Tojo, the executed wartime leader) were also enshrined in 1978, after Yasukuni's direct links with the state had been severed. An adjacent museum paints Japan's wars between 1931 and 1945, first in China and then across Asia, as the actions of a peace-loving nation liberating the region from Western imperialists.
东京靖国神社位于东京繁华地段，是一个用栅栏围起的安静的院子，每到春天它都会被盛开的樱花渲染成白色。它的建设模仿了位于华盛顿特区外的阿灵顿国家公墓，美国人为了纪念在19世纪中期统一美国的内战中牺牲的士兵而修建了该公墓。自靖国神社建立以来，就有250万日本战死者安放于此。然而，与阿灵顿国家公墓迥然相异，1978年14位二战甲级战犯（包括日军战时头目东条英机）也被供奉于此。与其毗邻的是一个博物馆，它用来粉饰日本在1931--1945年间发动的战争（首先入侵中国，而后波及到全亚洲），它标榜该战争是一个爱好和平民族的举动，将亚洲从西方帝国主义者的统治下解放出来。
In fact about 20m Asians died in these wars. In China alone, perhaps 10m died in scorched-earth campaigns, massacres of civilians and biological warfare—all glossed over by revisionists, and still taught at some schools as merely “The China Incident”. Though most of the 8m visitors a year honour family and friends who died, Yasukuni has a deserved reputation in Asia as the site of an extreme and hardline view of Japan's past and future.
而实际上，在那些战争中却有约2000万亚洲人身亡。仅在中国,就有近1000万人因“三光政策”、平民大屠杀和细菌战而丧命，但修正主义者却皆力掩盖这一史实，仅仅称之为“中国事件”，至今一些学校仍如此教育学生。虽然每年的800万游客多是为缅怀亲友而来，但在亚洲，靖国神社已被视为日本极端主义和强硬主义的象征，因而备受关注。
Mr Koizumi's Yasukuni visits caused protests across China. Yet he is no warmonger. His visits, according to Ian Buruma, the author of several books on Asia, played to a new mood of patriotic populism in a country that sees both China and South Korea as new economic rivals, and that objects to being lectured about ancient guilt by the undemocratic Chinese.
小泉参拜靖国神社引起了中国各地人民的抗议。不过他并不是一个好战分子。伊安•布鲁玛出版了多部有关亚洲的著作，据他看来，日本将中韩视为新经济竞争对手，而且它拒绝被不民主的中国人因其过去罪行而谴责，在这样的国度里，小泉的参拜迎合了一个新的爱国民粹主义潮流。
A sharp taste of the new mood can be found in a private bookshop in Kasumigaseki, in downtown Tokyo. The tiny shop is crammed with bestsellers, some of them thick manga comic books. One of the most popular manga authors is Yoshinori Kobayashi, whose first volume of his series “On War” sold nearly 1m copies. In it, he claimed that Japan's Asian wars were honourable and that Japanese atrocities such as the 1937 Nanjing massacre never happened. His latest book describes how Japan's Class A war criminals were actually victims.
在东京闹市区霞之关的一个私人书店里，这种潮流尤为刺眼。小店里摆满了各种畅销书籍，其中就有厚厚的日本漫画书。小林善纪是最受欢迎的日本漫画家之一，他的连环漫画“战争论”第一卷就卖了近100万册。在这本漫画里，他声称日本发动的亚洲战争是光荣的，且日本人的暴行，如1937年的南京大屠杀纯属子虚乌有。在新近的一本书里他说，日本的甲级战犯其实是战争受害者。
Titles by other authors explain why South Korea is “the nuisance neighbour” with an inferiority complex towards Japan, and why the Chinese are hated around the world: they are self-centred, have boorish manners (spitting, never queuing) and spread disease. In the manga books, the Japanese are usually drawn with blond hair and Caucasian features—a habit that reflects a long-held desire in Japan to identify with the West rather than with Asia. Koreans and Chinese, on the other hand, are depicted as swarthy, brutish and slit-eyed.
其它一些书籍还解释了，为什么韩国是一个“令人讨厌的邻居”及其对日本复杂的自卑心态，为什么在中国人为世人憎恶：他们自私，举止不端（随地吐痰，从不排队）而且传播疾病。在这些漫画书里，日本人通常被描绘为金发碧眼，具有西方白人的特征——这折射出日本长期以来'脱亚入欧'的传统。而韩国人和中国人的形象则是黑皮肤，小眼睛而且粗野不堪。
Yoshiko Nozaki of the State University of New York at Buffalo argues in Japan Focus, an online journal, that the ability of neonationalists to make historical certainties such as the Nanjing massacre sound controversial leads the public to feel that these issues remain unresolved among experts. Certainly, such books are so ubiquitous in Japan that the visitor soon ceases to be shocked. What surprises still is that this particular little bookstore sits on the first floor of Japan's foreign ministry.
纽约州立大学布法罗分校的Yoshiko Nozaki在一份在线杂志《日本聚焦》中指出，新民族主义者们抹煞南京大屠杀等历史真相，这给公众造成一种错觉，认为此类事件尚存争议，专家们对此也无定论。当然，此类书籍在日本随处可见，游客们很快就习以为常了。不过依然令人感到惊讶的是，上述小书店恰恰就座落于日本外交部一楼。
The view from China
中国视点
When Mr Abe arrives at Beijing's Capital Airport on October 8th, few Chinese will be aware that $250m in cheap loans from Japan helped pay for a big expansion of the facility in the 1990s. In China's state-controlled media, Japan is rarely portrayed positively. There is hardly a mention of the tens of billions of dollars-worth of low-interest loans and outright gifts that Japan has given China since the late 1970s—loans that China has thought of as its due as a developing country, and which it does not care to see as atonement for the war. When Japan decided last year to phase out its loan aid to China by 2008, the state media published indignant commentaries describing this as an affront, and only in passing revealed details of Japan's largesse.
当10月8日安倍抵达北京首都国际机场时，鲜有中国人能够意识到日本在1990年代的对华2亿5千万低息贷款，它帮助中国进行了大规模的基础设施建设。在中国官方控制的媒体中，日本的形象多为负面。自1970年代末期以来，日本向中国提供了数百亿美元的低息贷款及公开礼物，但中国媒体对此绝少提及。中国认为，这些贷款是其做为发展中国家的应得之物，而非日本的战争补偿。去年，当日本决定在2008年中止对华贷款援助后，政府媒体发表了愤怒的评论，称其为一种公然的侮辱，但对日本的慷慨赠予却绝口不提。
For the Chinese Communist Party, it is useful to portray Japan as an unrepentant aggressor with dreams of reasserting military dominance over Asia. The party has always sought to assert its legitimacy by representing itself as a bulwark against Japanese hegemony. China's school textbooks are filled with stories of communist heroism in the war, and of Japanese brutality. Since the crushing of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and the collapse of much of the rest of the communist world in the early 1990s, the party has struggled all the harder to justify its grip on power. “Patriotic education”, stressing the party's wartime role and the depravities of the Japanese invaders, has played a central role in this effort.
对中共而言，将日本描绘成一个梦想重新确立其亚洲军事霸主地位的冥顽不化的侵略者形象对其有益。一直以来，中共谋求通过把自己描绘成反对日本霸权的坚强堡垒来确立其合法地位。中国学校的教科书里充斥着抗战时期共产党员的英雄故事及日本人的残暴罪行。自1990年代早期的东欧剧变和镇压1989年以来，中共就竭力证明其掌权的合法性。“爱国主义教育”在其中起到了关键作用，它着重强调了中共的战时领导地位和日本侵略者的残暴。
But Chinese leaders know the dangers of giving nationalism too free a rein. Police stood by as thousands of demonstrators protested outside Japanese diplomatic missions in China in April last year. This, the biggest upsurge of anti-Japanese unrest in years, was sparked by a visit by Mr Koizumi to Yasukuni. But the authorities quickly grew nervous and sent clear signals that the protests must stop. Their worry is that nationalist unrest may turn against the government and undermine China's efforts to convince the rest of the world that its economic rise is unthreatening. Anti-Japanese organisations are closely monitored by the police.
但是中国领导人也深知放任民族主义泛滥的危险。去年四月份，几千民众在日本使馆前抗议示威，当时就有警察在场维持秩序。近年来的这种反日骚动在小泉访华之际达到了高潮。但政府很快就对此深感不安并发出了明确信号，此类抗议必须停止。他们担心，民族主义抗议骚动的矛头会转向政府，会破坏他使世人确信其和平崛起的努力。反日组织遭到了警察的严密监视。
The government also worries about the possible impact on Japanese direct investment, which last year overtook that of South Korea to reach $6.5 billion, more than one-tenth of the total received by China in 2005 according to China's figures. Businesses in China with a share of Japanese investment employ some 9.2m Chinese. Yet Japanese investment rose by nearly 20% last year despite the demonstrations, suggesting continuing confidence among Japanese businessmen in the security of their assets in China. Japanese exports to China increased by a more lacklustre 6.4% compared with the previous year's 27.2%. But public disdain for Japanese products appears to have played little part in this. Growth was strongest in the second half of the year, after the protests.
他还担忧，这可能会影响到日本对华直接投资。根据中国的统计数字，2005年日本直接对华投资占到中国吸纳外资总额的十分之一还多，超越韩国达到了65亿美元。日本在华投资企业雇用了 920万中国员工。尽管去年爆发了反日事件，日本对华投资依然增长了近20%，这表明了日本商人对其在华资产的安全性信心依旧。与前年相比，日本去年对华出口增长率稍显逊色，由27.2%降至6.4%。但中国民众抵制日货的行为对此影响不大。抗议活动结束后，下半年的增长异常强劲。
Consumers certainly make harsh judgments about Japanese products. Since mid-September the Chinese media have railed against SK-II, a Japanese cosmetics brand owned by Procter & Gamble, an American household-goods company, because of traces of heavy metals found in its skincare products. (Procter & Gamble says the cosmetics concerned are safe, meeting standards in Japan.) State-run newspapers have highlighted the Japanese rather than American connections of the products. In Shanghai, angry consumers besieged SK-II counters until police dispersed them. Most Chinese profess contempt for “little Japan”, and young people with no experience of the war often jeer more stridently than their parents. But few appear to let patriotism get in the way of shopping.
消费者无疑会对日货质量要求苛刻。自九月中旬以来，中国媒体纷纷斥责日本化妆品品牌SK-II（美国宝洁公司旗下产品），因为在其护肤类产品中发现了重金属成分（宝洁公司称该化妆品符合日本安全标准，是安全的）。政府报纸在报道时着重强调了该产品的日本背景。在上海，愤怒的消费者冲击了 SK-II柜台，后来警察出面制止驱散了人群。大多数中国人称日本为“小日本”以泄其鄙夷之情，而没有经历过战争的年轻人往往比其父母更加积极的参与反日活动。不过，鲜有人会将爱国主义带到商品消费的轨道上来，日货依然照买不误。
The government's fears of nationalism turning against the party itself may be better founded. The protests last year mainly involved members of the new middle classes whom the party regards as a bulwark of its support, and whose nationalist expectations have to be met. The demonstrations were organised using the internet and mobile phones, apparently spontaneously: a tactic that shocked the authorities, and may well have encouraged their efforts in recent months to clamp down on online dissent.
政府担心民族主义的斗争矛头会转向中共自身是有道理的。去年反日抗议活动的主要参与者是新兴中产阶级阶层，该阶层被中共视为其重要支持力量，认为必须满足他们的民族主义需求。示威活动通过互联网和移动电话自发组织，政府对此深感震惊，也许这更加坚定了他们近几个月以来压制网络异议的决心。
The limits of China's nationalism are suggested by the government's decision to arrange Mr Abe's trip without a public pledge beforehand not to visit the Yasukuni shrine. It is also unlikely to insist that Japan make concessions on the evaluation of its wartime history as a precondition for resuming normal top-level contacts. The Chinese leadership does not want to make specific demands that will be rebuffed by Japan and thus provide an excuse for a fresh round of protests.
安倍在没有事先公开保证不参拜靖国神社的前提下就能够造访中国，这说明了中国民族主义的局限性。而且看起来，政府也不太可能继续坚持目下恢复中日高层会晤所需的先决条件——日本必须在审视其过去战争上做出让步。中国领导层无意对日本提出特殊要求，因为一旦被日方拒绝，这将为国内新一轮反日抗议提供借口。
A problem called North Korea
朝鲜问题
Nor is it likely that China will allow its frosty relationship with Japan to affect its handling of North Korea. In July, China departed from its normal reluctance to censure North Korea by supporting a United Nations Security Council resolution, drafted by Japan, condemning North Korea's missile tests earlier that month. The resolution forbade trade in missile technology with North Korea and called for a halt to missile testing. To encourage China not to veto the resolution, a clause was removed that could have been construed as approving military action against North Korea in the event of its non-compliance. But the Americans and Japanese were delighted that China was willing to make its disapproval so public.
同样，中国也不可能让降至冰点的中日关系影响其处理朝鲜问题。七月份，中国一反常态的支持了谴责朝鲜的联合国安理会决议，该决议由日本提出，旨在谴责朝鲜在该月月初的导弹试射，它禁止同朝鲜进行导弹技术贸易，呼吁朝鲜停止进行导弹试射。为避免中国投否决票，决议废弃了一个条款——若朝鲜一意孤行，可以对其采取军事行动。美日为中国愿意公开表达其对朝鲜的责备而欢欣鼓舞。
Continuing friction between China and Japan could have serious consequences, however, if North Korea decides to conduct a nuclear test. China would then be worried that Japan would respond by developing its own nuclear capability, or by launching pre-emptive strikes against North Korean missile bases. Its hope is that Japan's reaction would be restrained by America, which does not want a nuclear arms race in the region any more than China does. But it is not confident of America's ability to do this.
然而，如果朝鲜决定进行核试验，中日间的持续磨擦可能会酿成严重后果。那样一来，中国将会担心，为应对朝鲜，日本会发展自己的核力量或对朝鲜导弹基地采取先发制人的打击。像中国一样，美国也不希望远东地区出现核军备竞赛。中国希望美国能够限制日本的反应，但是只怕美国有心无力。
China's chief foreign-policy objective in the near term is to avoid confrontation in order to give itself breathing room to focus on the economy and manage wrenching social change. It does not want problems with Japan to escalate. Although little progress has been made in the two countries' discussions about gas extraction in the East China Sea, China has not aggressively pushed its claims to an exclusive economic zone stretching close to Okinawa. It hopes that re-establishing top-level dialogue with Japan will help avoid a crisis if, for example, military vessels should happen to collide in the area.
近期的中国外交主要致力于为其经济发展和处理社会变革营造良好环境。中国并不希望中日间的磨擦升级。尽管两国关于东海油气开采的磋商没有实质性进展，但中国也从未宣布独占延伸至冲绳岛的海洋经济专属区。中国希望重新建立的中日高层对话能够避免类似于由军舰恰巧在该区域相撞而引发的危机
But China's stand-off with America over Taiwan will still overshadow its relationship with Japan. China will continue to brush aside Japan's longstanding complaints about the secretiveness of China's armed forces and the big annual increases in its budget. America has the same complaints, to which China has responded with only a few token gestures. China will continue gearing up its navy for possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait, an area of enormous strategic concern to Japan because it straddles vital shipping lanes.
然而，中美有关台湾问题的博弈仍会影响到中日关系。对日本长期以来有关中国秘密军事力量和逐年增加的军事预算的抱怨，中国将会置之不理。美国对此也颇有微词，但中国也仅做出些象征性姿态回应。为应对潜在的台海冲突，中国仍将继续加大其发展海军力量的步伐。对日本而言，台湾海峡有着非比寻常的战略意义，它是日本船舶运输的咽喉要道。
These preparations, which have intensified since the late 1990s, include the deployment of medium-range missiles capable of hitting Japanese targets—a strategy aimed at deterring Japanese assistance for any American intervention in such a conflict. But China does not appear to have any plans to attack, except in the extremely unlikely event that the island changes its constitution to sever its notional links with the mainland. In the past couple of years, in fact, China has become less belligerent and increasingly confident that a more malleable government, more eager to establish good relations with the mainland, will take power on the island in the next presidential elections in 2008.
中国在1990年代晚期加强了军备力量，这包括部署了能够袭击日本目标的中距离导弹。此举意在震慑日本，一旦台海发生冲突，若日本想为美国的干预提供援助它着实需要思忖一下这些导弹。但中国并未显现出任何攻击的迹象，除非发生特殊事件——台湾为脱离大陆而修宪。实际上，在过去的几年里，中国已没那么穷兵黩武而且愈加相信，一个更加温和的、更愿意同大陆建立良好关系的台湾政府会赢得2008年的总统选举。
China is unlikely either to order any sweeping changes to the anti-Japanese stance of its history textbooks. In Shanghai there has at least been a glimmer of flexibility in the recent publication of a school textbook that reportedly devotes less space than usual to foreign invasions (including Japanese wartime atrocities) and more to the history of positive trends such as technological innovation. But a torrent of online criticism of the book is likely to make the government cautious about spreading its use more widely. When it comes to dealing with anything Japan-related, public opinion counts in China.
中国不太可能彻底改变其历史教科书中的反日立场。不过，至少上海最近出版的教科书有了些许弹性。据报道，与往常相比，该课本压缩了有关外来侵略的内容（包括日本的战争暴行），更多的关注起历史上的积极趋势如技术创新等。但是网络上对此书的如潮恶评可能会令政府谨慎考虑推广此书。在中国，一旦涉及到日本问题，公众舆论起着决定性的作用。
President Hu Jintao is now trying to consolidate his grip on power in the buildup to a crucial five-yearly party congress late next year, at which he hopes to install protégés who will eventually take over from him. As a cautious man, he is unlikely to risk making big adjustments in the months ahead to such a sensitive area of foreign policy as relations with Japan. But if Mr Abe at least stays away from the Yasukuni shrine, Mr Hu will feel that his ostracism of Mr Koizumi has paid off.
胡锦涛试图在明年晚些时候召开的五年一度的中共代表大会上巩固其统治地位，届时，他希望安插最终会接替他的亲信党羽。做为一个审慎之人，在未来的几个月里，胡不太可能会对敏感如中日关系的外交政策做出大幅调整。但是，安倍至少要远离靖国神社，这样胡才会觉得他对小泉的排斥取得了效果。
History lessons
以史为鉴
On his trip to China and South Korea, can Mr Abe give indications of greater sincerity than Mr Koizumi? On foreign policy, the prime minister employs cooler calculations than his predecessor, who seemed too often to operate on an emotional plane. Mr Abe also has impeccable conservative credentials, which inoculate him against charges at home of being soft on China. With his call for more “forward-looking” relations, it is possible that his summitry will be deemed a success by all sides. On the other hand, in the long run both Mr Abe's gut beliefs and his strong sense of being the heir to a political dynasty argue against the kind of frank assessment of Japan's past that the neighbours are calling for.
安倍的中韩之行能否显示出他有着比小泉更大的诚意？在外交事务上，与往往感情用事的小泉相比，安倍更加理性。同时，他在保守派内也声名远扬，这使得他在国内免于被人指责对中国太过软弱。凭借其所倡导的要更多“面向未来”的关系，各方都将安倍此次同中韩的高层会晤视作成功之举。另一方面，从长远来看，安倍的本质信仰和其对做为政治世家继承人的强烈认同感都不会——如其邻邦所愿——令他对日本的过去做出坦诚的评价。
Mr Abe's grandfather was Nobusuke Kishi. As prime minister in 1960 Kishi strengthened Japan's alliance with America, arguing that it was in Japan's national interest to do so. His grandson now forcefully argues that the alliance can be further strengthened only if Japan plays a greater part in its own defence; hence his support for constitutional change. But Mr Abe's beloved grandfather was also a key official in Japan's war efforts. During the 1930s he ran industrial policy in the puppet-state of Manchuria. In the 1940s, as minister for munitions, he oversaw the forced-labour programmes. After the war he was indicted as a Class A war criminal, though never charged.
安倍的外祖父是岸信介。1960年，身为日本首相的岸信介加强了日美联盟，他认为这是基于日本的利益。如今他的外孙强硬的认为，只有日本在本国防务中扮演更重要的角色，联盟才会进一步得到巩固，因此安倍也支持日本修宪。但是安倍亲爱的外公同时也是日本的战时高官。1930年代，岸信介在伪满洲政府主管工业；1940 年代，作为军需次官，他负责强制劳工计划。战后，他作为甲级战犯被起诉，但未被定罪。
Mr Abe, a regular Yasukuni-goer before he became prime minister, has sought to protect his grandfather's name. He does not believe Japan's wartime behaviour to be exceptionally evil. He has questioned the legitimacy of the victors' Tokyo tribunal that judged war criminals, though he will presumably peddle a softer line now that he is prime minister. Yet even if Mr Abe does not visit Yasukuni as prime minister, says Yukio Hatoyama, secretary-general of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, uncertainty about whether he will go or not will still harm Japan's relations with China and South Korea.
安倍努力保护外祖父的声誉，在担任日本首相之前，他也是靖国神社的常客。他不相信日本在战争年代罪恶滔天。尽管由于身为首相大概要努力宣扬温和的方针政策，但他也质疑由战胜者所主持的东京审判的合法性。日本反对党民主党干事长鸠山由纪夫说：即使安倍不以首相身份参拜靖国神社，其是否参拜的不确定性仍会危害日中、日韩关系。
Above all, Mr Abe has hammered home to his people the need for Japan to stand tall. He insists that Japan's young need a patriotic education that leaves out the uncomfortable bits of the past. This may imbue Japan's shiftless youth with manliness, but it is unlikely to ease Japan's relations with its neighbours. There is no getting away from history.
最重要的是，安倍反复向国民们强调日本需要站得更高。他坚持认为日本年轻人需要爱国主义教育，而这会抹去日本的不光彩历史。此举也许会向懦弱的日本年轻人灌输些男子汉气概，但却不大可能对缓解日本同其邻邦的关系有何裨益。历史，无从回避。翻译 by dgrkl
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