Germany’s Government: Angela's ashes 安吉拉的灰烬
关键词： Angela,安吉拉 The German chancellor needs to be bolder in pursuing reforms德国总理进行改革不够大胆
IT WAS never going to be easy for Angela Merkel to run a “grand coalition” government. After all, the coalition, between her centre-right Christian Democrats and the centre-left Social Democrats, came about only because she and her party did unexpectedly badly in last September's election. And, although Germany is a consensus-loving country, it does not warm to left-right coalitions at the federal level: the previous one, between 1966 and 1969, was not a particularly happy affair.
安吉拉. 默克尔“大联合政府”的运作从一开始就注定不会一帆风顺。毕竟，产生由中右翼基督教民主联盟（简称基民盟）和中左翼社会民主党组成的联盟仅仅是因为她和她领导的政党在去年九月的大选中表现得出乎意料的糟糕。虽然德国热衷一致，却还未达到能够在联邦政府层面上达成左右两派合作的程度：上次1966年至1969年的先例就是一个前车之鉴。
Despite this, at the start of the year Ms Merkel looked surprisingly good. Her early foreign-policy forays, especially to Washington, DC, and Brussels, were glittering successes that drew a favourable contrast with her Social Democratic predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. The economy was at last picking up some momentum. Business confidence was high. Her party was even gaining ground with the electorate. For a brief moment, indeed, Ms Merkel was the most popular chancellor in history, scoring an 80% approval rating in the polls.In the past few weeks, however, she has come down to earth with a bump. A fractious dispute over health-care reform, which was supposed to be a centrepiece of the government's domestic agenda, has brought home how hard it is for the two coalition partners to agree on anything (see article). Ms Merkel seems unable even to make deals with her own party's powerful state premiers, some of whom seem more interested in replacing her than in settling policy differences. Opinion polls and recent state elections show that support for both main parties continues to ebb. One recent poll even puts the Christian Democrats behind the Social Democrats, for the first time since Ms Merkel became chancellor.
尽管如此，今年年初默克尔女士表现出色，令人吃惊。她早期的外交政策尝试，尤其是对华盛顿和布鲁塞尔的访问，所带来的成功光环都使得上届总理社会民主党的施罗德相形见绌。经济终于有所起色；商界信心增强；基民党甚至在选民中占了上风。曾经一度，默克尔女士确实是德国历史上最受欢迎的总理，民意调查支持率高达80%。然而在过去的几周内，她却遭受重创，跌落低谷。在卫生保健制度改革（该议题可谓政府国内议程上的重中之重）问题上各派意见的严重分歧使她清楚地认识到联合政府中的两派想就任何事件达成一致绝非易事。甚至就连和自己党内有势力有影响的州长取得一致，默克尔女士似乎都无能为力。其中一些人好像更热心于如何取而代之，而非致力于如何解决政治分歧。民意调查和新近的州选举显示对两大党派的支持率都继续回落。一次最近的民调结果中基民盟甚至排在社会民主党之后。这在默克尔女士当选总理后还是头一次。
It is true that the economy is still doing quite well, and unemployment continues to fall—although only in Germany would this year's expected GDP growth of up to 2.5% be greeted with enthusiasm. But it is also true that Germany, like much of Europe, needs more substantial reforms to regain its economic vitality. The labour market is too regulated, taxes are too complex and too high, the public sector is bloated and unresponsive, the education and health systems need a shake-up. Yet because the two main parties disagree so much, the grand coalition has barely begun to tackle any of these.
经济运行保持良好，失业率也继续走低，欧洲国家中只有德国今年将达到预期的2.5%的GDP增长率，这些都是千真万确的。但同样不可否认的是，正如欧洲大部分地区，德国需要更多实质性的改革来重振经济。劳动力市场限制过多，税收过于高昂繁杂，公共部门臃肿迟钝，教育体制和卫生保健制度都需要大刀阔斧的改革。但因为两大党派意见如此不统一，以至到现在大联合政府才开始着手解决这些问题。
This lady shouldn't be for turning
女总理不应优柔寡断
A good way forward would be for Ms Merkel herself to show some stronger leadership. She should start by exerting more discipline within her own party, as she is belatedly threatening to do by pulling her state premiers into line. But she might also have to consider other options. One is to prepare the ground for a different coalition, without the Social Democrats. The obvious one would combine the Christian Democrats, the Free Democrats and the Greens—a grouping known from the black, yellow and green party colours as a Jamaica coalition. However, even a Jamaica coalition would find it hard to agree on reforms, not least to health care. So she should also consider a second option: to plan for an early election. It is not straightforward to call one in Germany, but it might be possible to engineer an early poll in the second half of next year, after Germany's first-half presidency of the European Union and the G8 summit are both over.
要想出头默克尔女士就得展示更加强硬的领导作风，从整顿党内风纪开始。她现在正在努力使各州州长与其保持步调一致 -- 亡羊补牢，为时不晚。但她也许还得考虑其他的出路。一是为撇开社民党，另建一个联盟做准备。显而易见，这就需要联合基民盟，自民党和绿党。三党的传统颜色分别为黑、黄、绿（正好是牙买加国旗的颜色），由此得名 -- 牙买加联盟。然而，即便如此，该联盟也会发现在改革问题上实难统一，卫生保健改革自不待言。所以她也应考虑走第二条路： 计划尽早选举。在德国发起一次选举不容易，但在明年下半年启动一项早期民调是可能的。那时德国为期半年的欧盟轮值主席国任期将告一段落，八国峰会（德国为主席国）届时也已结束。
Throughout her political career, Ms Merkel has always made it clear that her instincts are to make progress in small steps, not giant leaps. She is by nature cautious, not bold. The trouble is that just now there is little sign of her taking even small steps in the direction of significant reform in Germany. If she is to have a lasting political impact on her country, she must start soon.
纵观默克尔的政治生涯，她所呈现出的本能就是循序渐进，而不是大步流星地推动改革。她谨小慎微，不敢作为。现在的问题就在于几乎没有任何迹象表明她在德国推行重大改革的道路上，迈出了哪怕是一小步。如果她想在德国保持其政治影响力，就必须尽早开始行动。翻译 by illcf
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