The Federal Reserve's Chairman 美联储主席
关键词： 美联储,Ben Bernanke Hitting his stride 渐入佳境Feb 1st 2007 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
Ben Bernanke has won respect. Will he now push reform at the Fed?
本·伯南克已为自己赢得了尊重，问题是现在他如何推进美联储改革?
WHEN Ben Bernanke succeeded Alan Greenspan as chairman of America's Federal Reserve a year ago this week, Wall Street's commentariat had two questions. Would “Helicopter Ben” prove to be a credible inflation fighter? Many bond traders remembered him as the Fed governor who had once mused about preventing deflation by dropping money from the sky. And at what pace would the former Princeton professor push the Fed towards adopting a formal inflation target, an idea he had long championed? One year on, the answers seem to be “yes” and “slow”.
去年的本周，本·伯南克接替艾伦·格林斯潘就任美联储主席。当时，华尔街的评论员们心存两大疑虑：其一， 这个“直升机阿本”是否是个值得信赖的反通胀斗士？对不少券商来说，本·伯南克仍是那个曾想到通过空降钞票来抑制通缩的美联储理事。其二，这个前普林斯顿大学教授在美联储推行他长期支持的通胀目标制改革，其进度如何？一年下来，似乎这两个问题的答案分别是“是的”和“缓慢”。
After a rocky start, Mr Bernanke has won inflation-fighting credentials (see chart below). Last May was a low point. The new Fed chairman told congressmen that the central bank might pause its interest-rate increases even if inflation was rising. Bond markets took this to mean that a pause was imminent and inflation hawks began to fret. He compounded the mess by confiding to a journalist that the markets had misinterpreted him.
尽管开局不利，本·伯南克还是赢得了“反通胀斗士”的称号（见下表）。他的声誉在去年五月降至底点。上任不久的本·伯南克向国会议员表示即便通胀率上升，央行也有可能暂停加息。债市将这视为加息周期结束的信号，反通胀强硬派人士也开始变得忧心忡忡。随后伯南克私下向一位记者表示市场误解了他的意思，结果使事态愈发不可收拾。
Though serious, that setback proved short-lived and the chairman's reputation has steadily risen since last summer. That is largely because his judgments have proved correct: notably, to stop tightening in August with rates at 5.25% yet retain a hawkish bias despite the housing recession. Inflationary pressure has abated and, as Mr Bernanke argued, the economy has seemed to shrug off the housing market.
这个挫折虽然严重但并未持续很久，伯南克的声望自去年夏天以来稳步上升。很大程度上是因为他的判断被证明都是正确的：其中最值得称道的是，在8月房产业萧条、通胀压力已经缓解的背景下，他虽然停止紧缩银根将联邦基金利率维持在5.25%不变，但也同时又保留强硬立场。目前看来经济确实并未受到房市降温的负面影响，正如他当时所断言的那样。
Two months ago financial markets were sure that the Fed, for all its hawkish talk, would soon cut rates. But as the statistics have strengthened, Wall Street has fallen into line with Mr Bernanke. Far from heading for recession, preliminary figures released on January 31st showed output rose at an annual rate of 3.5% in the last three months of 2006, above the economy's trend pace. On the same day, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank's policymaking body, said it was once again holding rates at 5.25%. Although it acknowledged that inflation figures have improved “modestly”, it kept its hawkish bias.
两个月前，金融市场还曾确信美联储虽然措辞强硬，但不久便会减息。但在强劲的数据面前，华尔街也开始对伯南克亦步亦趋。于1月31日公布的初步数据显示，2006年第四季度产出量年增长率为3.5%，超过了同期的经济增长率，显示经济发展一片大好。当天，尽管承认通胀水平“稍有“上升，美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)还是保持了一贯的强硬态度，宣布再次将联邦基金利率维持在5.25%不变。
Meanwhile, Wall Street is gradually getting used to the style of the Bernanke Fed, which seems to be more democratic than the Greenspan model. Mr Bernanke has altered the format of the FOMC's discussions to encourage debate. Don Kohn, the Fed's vice-chairman, is particularly influential: he gave the speech that has had the biggest impact on the markets in the past six months. Dissent is tolerated: Jeff Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, disagreed with the decision to halt tightening in August and dissented at every subsequent FOMC meeting until his stint as a voting member ended in December.
同时，华尔街开始逐渐习惯伯南克掌门的美联储的行事风格，那就是比格林斯潘的风格更民主了。伯南克改革了FOMC会议的形式以鼓励论辩。美联储副主席唐·科恩(Don Kohn)的影响力也出奇地大，过去六个月给市场带来最大影响的，莫过于此人的言论。美联储对内部的不同意见相当宽容。里齐蒙得联邦储备银行主席杰夫·莱克(Jeff Lacker)反对8月份暂停紧缩银根的决定。作为拥有表决权的委员，他在随后的每次FOMC会议上都投了反对票，直到12月任期结束。
This collegial approach is one reason why the Fed has moved more slowly towards inflation targeting than many outsiders expected. Although several governors agree that such a target makes sense in principle, they are loth to change a system that seems to be working well. Mr Kohn, a sceptic, is in charge of a special committee to guide the deliberations. It seems in no hurry. Nor are the external circumstances auspicious. With the Fed's preferred price gauge, the deflator for personal consumption expenditures excluding oil and food, still above the 1-2% that is widely read as an informal goal, the central bankers have not been keen on making a target explicit.
这种学院派作风也是美联储推行通胀目标制的进度慢于外界预期的一个原因。有些美联储理事尽管认可通胀目标制原则上可行，但他们仍不愿意对依然奏效的现行体制作出变革：研究通胀目标制可行性的特别委员会(其负责人唐·科恩反对通胀目标制)看上去并不着急。外部环境也不乐观：美联储偏好的价格量尺——个人消费支出(包括石油和食品支出)平减指数仍高于1-2%。美联储向来不热衷于设立明确的通胀目标，1-2%被外界广泛认为是其非正式的目标。
The change of control in Congress has slowed progress too. Democrats are particularly suspicious of inflation targeting, fearing it would compromise the Fed's other statutory goal, that of maximising employment. Barney Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has grave doubts about the idea.
国会中的权力转移也阻碍了改革的进程。民主党对通胀目标制疑虑重重，担心它会削弱美联储的另一个法定目标，即最大限度地提升就业率。众议院金融服务委员会主席巴利·弗兰克(Barney Frank)对此更是百般质疑。
Internally, rapid turnover has made matters harder. The FOMC is full of new faces. Besides Mr Bernanke, three Fed governors have arrived in the past year and one seat is still vacant. One of the newcomers, Frederic Mishkin, is a well-known advocate of inflation targeting. There is change at the regional reserve banks too. Charles Plosser, a former economics professor, became president of the Philadelphia Fed in August. Jack Guynn retired from the Atlanta Fed in October; his successor has not yet been named. The presidents of the Boston and Chicago Feds, both voting members this year, recently said that they would be stepping down. Though they are far from agreeing to an explicit inflation target, the central bankers are discussing other ways to improve transparency. One option is to release more frequent economic forecasts. The central bank now publishes projections for growth, inflation and unemployment twice a year, based on estimates by board members and regional reserve banks. Possible changes include issuing quarterly forecasts with a more detailed description of the economic outlook. A baby step, perhaps, but in the right direction.
美联储内部频繁的人事更替让局势变得更加不明朗。FOMC中到处都是新面孔；除了伯南克，去年理事会又添三位新成员，而目前仍有一个理事席位虚座以待。其中的一个新人弗莱德里克·米什金(Frederic Mishkin)是远近闻名的通胀目标制支持者。地方联储银行的人事变动也不可忽视：8月，前经济学教授查里斯·普罗斯尔(Charles Plosser)就任费城联储银行主席；11月，杰克·盖恩(Jack Guynn)卸任亚特兰大联储银行主席，至于继任者还未提名；波士顿和芝加哥的联储银行主席都在FOMC拥有表决权，他们最近相继表示即将离任。尽管在是否公开通胀目标的问题上分歧严重，美联储的理事们已经在讨论提升透明度的其它途径。提高发布经济预测的频率便是其中之一。目前，基于理事会成员和地方联储银行的评估，美联储每半年发表一次有关经济增长、通胀和失业率的预测报告。而在将来，内容更为详尽的经济预测报告有可能每季度发表一次。改革步伐小得可怜，但至少朝对了方向。翻译 by onejiang
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